After twenty years of analyzing market movements, I can tell you this week brought some fascinating developments that deserve a deeper look. Let me break down what I’m seeing and what it means for investors.
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.'” – Sir John Templeton’s wisdom feels particularly relevant as we navigate these markets. The S&P 500 crossed a historic milestone by breaking 6,000 before retreating 2.1% for the week.
While headlines focused on the pullback, I find it more telling that we’re still up 1.5% since the election. My experience tells me such consolidation phases often set the stage for the next market move.
Let’s dissect the sector performance:
- Energy (+0.6%) and Financials (+1.4%) showed remarkable resilience
- Healthcare (-5.5%) faced its steepest weekly decline in months
- Technology (-3.2%) struggled, particularly in semiconductors
- The remaining sectors posted losses between 1.1% and 3.0%
Many miss an interesting fact: The equal-weighted S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, suggesting this wasn’t just about mega-cap weakness. I’ve seen this pattern before—it often signals a broader market reassessment rather than sector-specific concerns.
President Trump and his team have a historic task ahead of them in January as they must stop inflation and government spending while minimizing risks to Main Street.
Bonds and Treasuries
The fixed-income market is telling us an interesting story. Having traded through multiple rate cycles, I can say the current yield movements deserve special attention:
- The 10-year yield briefly touched 4.50% before settling at 4.43%
- The 2-year yield climbed to 4.30%, suggesting short-term rate expectations remain elevated
- The yield curve’s shape indicates continued market uncertainty about the Fed’s path
Fed Chair Powell’s comments about not rushing to cut rates sparked a reassessment of rate expectations. In my experience, these policy pivot points often create excellent opportunities for patient investors.
US Market Highlights
The healthcare sector’s dramatic move caught many off guard. President-elect Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS Secretary sent healthcare stocks into their steepest decline since the pandemic era. I’ve analyzed healthcare stocks through multiple administrations, and policy shifts rarely have such an immediate impact. However, if you look at the skyrocket levels of these stocks during COVID, maybe this is a good thing: responsible capitalism may help everyone in the long run.
The technology sector faced its own challenges. Applied Materials’ guidance miss created ripple effects throughout the semiconductor space. Having covered tech stocks since the dot-com era, I can tell you supply chain signals often precede broader sector moves.
The retail sector offered some bright spots. October’s sales data exceeded expectations, especially when accounting for September’s upward revisions. After decades of analyzing consumer behavior, I see this as a sign of underlying economic resilience.
Global Markets
The international landscape presents a complex picture: China’s retail sales surprised to the upside, but their real estate sector continues to struggle with investments down 10.3% (which is very scary). My years analyzing Asian markets suggest this dichotomy could persist.
European markets face mounting pressures:
- Industrial output dropped 2%
- Capital goods production showed weakness
- Auto sector struggles continue
- U.S. tariff threats loom large
Japan finally broke its losing streak with 0.3% growth, though weak consumption and capital spending suggest caution is warranted.
Commodities & Crypto Corner
The energy markets are giving us fascinating signals. Brent at $74.50 and WTI at $71 reflect multiple crosscurrents:
- Hurricane Rafael disrupting Gulf production
- OPEC+ postponing production increases
- Political implications of the U.S. election
- Shifting energy transition policies
Gold prices experienced downward pressure last week, trading around $2,690 per ounce. The decline was attributed to two main factors:
- Post-election profit-taking as election-related fears subsided
- Pressure from rising U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields1
The precious metal’s movement was part of a broader market adjustment following the election results and shifting market sentiment.
The cryptocurrency space is particularly exciting right now. Bitcoin reaching $76,300 represents more than just a number – it reflects changing regulatory expectations under the incoming administration. Other cryptocurrencies followed suit:
- Ethereum surged 20% to $3,000
- Solana jumped 25% to $205
- Dogecoin gained 21% to $0.19
Calendar
Next week’s calendar is packed with market-moving events. NVIDIA’s earnings report stands out – as the world’s largest publicly traded company, their AI-related revenue growth could set the tone for tech stocks.Key events I’m watching:
- Walmart and Target earnings for consumer spending insights
- Housing market data, particularly building permits and starts
- Initial jobless claims for labor market health
- PMI readings for economic momentum
- Fed speakers’ comments on rate policy
Monday, November 18
- NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 AM ET)
- Net Long-Term TIC Flows (4:00 PM ET)
- Earnings from Trip.com, Symbotic, AECOM, BellRing Brands, and Brady Corp
Tuesday, November 19
- Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 AM ET)
- Major earnings: Walmart, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Keysight Technologies, and Viking Holdings
Wednesday, November 20
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index (7:00 AM ET)
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET)
- Spotlight earnings: NVIDIA, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, Target, and Snowflake
Thursday, November 21
- Initial and Continuing Claims (8:30 AM ET)
- Philadelphia Fed Index (8:30 AM ET)
- Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)
- Leading Indicators (10:00 AM ET)
- EIA Natural Gas Inventories (10:30 AM ET)
- Key earnings: Intuit, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Construction Partners, NetApp, and BJ’s Wholesale
Friday, November 22
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Preliminary (9:45 AM ET)
- S&P Global US Services PMI – Preliminary (9:45 AM ET)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final (10:00 AM ET)
- Earnings from The Buckle and Global Blue Group Holding
The week’s highlight will be NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday, which could significantly impact market sentiment given their position in the AI chip market. I’ll be particularly focused on the housing data early in the week and the PMI readings on Friday, as these could give us crucial insights into both consumer confidence and overall economic health.
After decades in the markets, I’ve learned that successful investing requires attention to detail and seeing the bigger picture. These data points matter, but their interaction tells the real story.
