Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the market closes. Wall Street expects earnings of $2.49 per share on revenue of $108.99 billion, according to Zacks consensus estimates. Both figures would represent growth of roughly 91% from a year earlier.
The setup
The report arrives after a choppy week for AI-linked stocks, with Nvidia shares pulling back even as the broader market held up. Expectations are high, and the company itself guided quarterly revenue to roughly $108 billion when it last reported in August. Analysts will be watching whether results land above or below that company-issued target.
Nvidia has beaten consensus in each of its last four reports, though the size of the surprises has narrowed as estimates caught up. The consensus EPS estimate for this quarter has moved up about 0.6% over the past 30 days.
Key numbers
The table below shows what Wall Street expects for the quarter ended October 2026.
| Metric | Consensus estimate | Year-ago quarter | Implied growth |
| Earnings per share | $2.49 | $1.30 | +92% |
| Revenue | $108.99 billion | $57.0 billion | +91% |
| Full-year EPS | $9.30 | — | +95% |
| Full-year revenue | $407.51 billion | — | +118% |
Last quarter, Nvidia earned $2.22 per share on $96.2 billion in revenue, beating estimates by 6.7%. Data center revenue reached $89 billion, or 92.7% of total sales. Management guided current-quarter revenue to about $108 billion with gross margins near 74% and said the Vera Rubin platform should contribute roughly 20% of data center revenue.
The revenue trajectory tells the story of the guidance. Management’s forecast of 70% growth for fiscal 2028 implies the company still expects tens of billions in additional annual sales from current levels.
What to watch
Four signals matter. First, revenue against the company’s own $108 billion guide. Second, the pace of the Vera Rubin platform ramp, which management expects to become a meaningful share of data center sales. Third, gross margins, where executives have warned about memory cost pressure and supply constraints. Fourth, the outlook, with management previously forecasting 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028.
One caution flag: Zacks calculates a negative earnings ESP of -0.55% for this report, meaning its most accurate estimate sits slightly below consensus. A beat is not automatic, even with 91% growth expected.
Common mistakes investors make before earnings
The first mistake is over-allocating right before the print. A single report routinely moves the stock by high single digits, and position sizes built for calm markets get stress-tested exactly when volatility peaks.
The second is treating the consensus as a floor. Estimates are averages, not promises, and the negative earnings ESP is a reminder that the most accurate forecast sits below the street number. The third is ignoring what management says about the future — the guidance often matters more to the stock than the quarter itself.
Bottom line
Nvidia remains the market’s clearest barometer for AI infrastructure spending. Long-term holders have seen this pattern before: high estimates, sharp pre-earnings swings, and a business still growing near 90%. New investors may prefer to wait for the numbers rather than pay for pre-earnings uncertainty. Tuesday’s report will set the tone for the entire AI trade into year-end.
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