Micron Technology reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect adjusted EPS near $31 and revenue around $50.4 billion, numbers that would have seemed implausible two years ago. The AI memory boom has re-rated the stock, and the market now asks whether record results can keep climbing.
The setup
Micron’s fiscal Q3, reported June 24, was a record on every line. Revenue came in at $41.46 billion against a $35.91 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $25.11 beat the $21.39 consensus by a wide margin. The company guided Q4 revenue to $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, with gross margin around 86 percent and adjusted EPS around $31.
Consensus has since converged onto the company’s own guide. Benzinga reports 26 of 27 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target near $1,303. The stock traded near $974 in mid-September, up about 240 percent in 2026.
Key numbers
| Metric | Fiscal Q3 2026 | Q4 guide and consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.46B | $50B (guide plus or minus $1B) |
| Adjusted EPS | $25.11 | Approximately $31 |
| Gross margin | 84.6% | Around 86% |
| Revenue growth year over year | +345.8% | — |
| Analyst ratings | 26 of 27 Buy, average target $1,303 | |
What to watch
The single most important number is gross margin guidance for the next fiscal year. Q4 guidance of 86 percent is already priced in. What moves the stock is whether management signals that margin zone can hold as Samsung and SK Hynix add high-bandwidth memory capacity, or whether pricing power erodes faster than bulls expect.
Watch HBM contract status too. High-bandwidth memory is sold out for the year under fixed-price contracts, which supports revenue visibility but caps upside surprise. The bear case rests on Samsung re-qualification at Nvidia, which would end the HBM duopoly and compress average selling prices across the board.
Analyst outlook for Micron
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar maintains a Buy rating with a target implying 72.5 percent upside, citing hyperscaler willingness to pay premiums for memory and to sign long-term agreements. Benzinga tracks consensus targets ranging from $1,100 to $2,000 among recent moves.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider raised his target to $1,100 in June while keeping a Neutral rating, the low end among recent actions.
The consensus view among surveyed firms suggests calendar 2027 EPS near $112 per share. The debate is whether that number survives contact with new capacity from Samsung and SK Hynix.
Common mistakes investors make
First, do not confuse a record quarter with a durable earnings level. Memory has always been cyclical. Prices rise, capacity arrives, and prices fall faster than they rose. Micron lost money as recently as fiscal 2023.
Second, do not assume the consensus Buy rating is a safety net. The average target near $1,303 was set during the upcycle. Cyclicals punish consensus thinking at the turn.
Third, remember that fixed-price HBM contracts cut both ways. They lock in revenue during a shortage. They also cap upside when spot prices run hotter than contract prices, which is why the stock needs the margin guide more than the revenue guide.
Dollar-impact example for investors
Micron pays a small dividend, roughly 0.3 percent, and that is the point. This is a growth vehicle, not an income stock. A $10,000 position held since January would be worth roughly $34,000 after the stock’s 240 percent run in 2026. The question for any conservative household is whether that kind of volatility belongs in a retirement account at all.
Bottom line
Micron reports September 30 after the close, with consensus EPS near $31 and the company’s own revenue guide at $50 billion. What matters now is the margin guide and whether HBM pricing power holds as competitors add capacity. For conservative investors, the honest answer is that this is a cyclical stock at cyclical-peak earnings, and position sizing matters more than the print.
Stay ahead with our weekly newsletter
Get stock picks, market analysis, and strategy updates delivered to your inbox every week.
Subscribe to AlphaBetaStock’s free newsletter for daily market insights.
