Investors chasing the next breakout stock face a clear choice. Nvidia reported first-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday that beat estimates across every line item. Meanwhile, SpaceX filed its S-1 registration, confirming a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX and a valuation target that could reach $2 trillion. But the numbers suggest Nvidia is the safer bet.
The setup
Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share on revenue of $81.6 billion, topping analyst forecasts that called for $1.75 and $78.9 billion, respectively, according to Barron’s. The chip maker, which has risen 19% over the past three months, now carries a market capitalization of roughly $5.4 trillion. That scale makes outsized post-earnings moves rare — and Thursday’s muted reaction proved the point.
SpaceX filed its long-awaited IPO paperwork with the SEC on May 20. Elon Musk’s aerospace and satellite communications company plans to trade on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under ticker SPCX, ending months of speculation. The S-1 filing states a mission to make life multiplanetary and cites a $28.5 trillion total addressable market across rockets, satellites, AI, and communications. Revenue last year was under $19 billion with a growth rate of roughly 33%.
Key numbers
The gap between current fundamentals and future expectations may be the widest in years.
| Metric | Nvidia (NVDA) | SpaceX (SPCX) |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap / target | $5.4 trillion | Up to $2 trillion |
| Most recent revenue | $81.6B (quarterly) | ~$19B (annual) |
| EPS | $1.87 | Not disclosed |
| Growth rate | Revenue up YoY | ~33% |
| Q2 guidance | $91B +/- 2% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | ~0.4% (new) | None |
| Buyback plan | $80 billion | None announced |
Nvidia also expanded its AI strategy. CEO Jensen Huang flagged $20 billion in central-processing unit revenue for this year, adding to the company’s dominant graphics-processing chip business. He said on the earnings call that “demand has gone parabolic” because “agentic AI has arrived.”
For dividend-seeking investors, Nvidia’s newly raised quarterly payout of 25 cents per share represents a 2,400% increase from its previous 1-cent rate. Google parent Alphabet now holds the lowest yield in the S&P 500, according to Barron’s. The $80 billion stock buyback signals confidence that management sees value even at record highs.
What to watch
Three factors will determine how this story unfolds in the coming weeks.
Hyperscaler spending. Huang warned that Nvidia should grow faster than the capital expenditure of large cloud providers, but analysts are monitoring whether hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google slow their chip orders. That risk has hovered over the stock since early 2025.
IPO pricing. SpaceX’s S-1 did not confirm a share price or raise amount, but the filing makes clear Musk is aiming for a valuation “north of $1.5 trillion.” If the company hits $2 trillion, Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire. The IPO roadshow is expected to begin in the coming weeks.
Federal Reserve policy. Minutes from the Fed’s April meeting showed most officials would not rule out rate hikes if inflation stays above 2%. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, pushing to remove language that suggested the central bank still leaned toward easing. Equity multiples for growth companies such as Nvidia are sensitive to rate expectations.
Bottom line
SpaceX’s IPO will generate headlines and retail interest, especially among Musk’s dedicated investor base. But a company with under $19 billion in annual revenue and a 33% growth rate will need years to justify a $1.5 trillion valuation. Nvidia, by contrast, is already posting $81 billion in a single quarter and returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
For conservative investors prioritizing evidence over enthusiasm, Nvidia offers measurable returns today. SpaceX is a bet on Mars — which is exciting, but not a portfolio strategy.
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