Well, folks, what a week. I’ve been doing this for over twenty years, and I still get a little jolt when the market decides to throw a curveball and a fastball in the same inning. This week gave us a taste of both. The major indexes posted their first winning week since the Iran conflict kicked off in late February, and the March jobs report landed this morning with a number that made half of Wall Street spit out their coffee.
Let’s get into it.
Week in Review
Warren Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” I thought about that line a lot this week. Fear had been running the show for four straight weeks. Then Tuesday happened.
President Trump told reporters the U.S. could wrap up its military involvement in Iran within “two or three weeks,” and the market responded like a coiled spring. The Dow surged over 1,100 points on Tuesday — a 2.5% pop and the best single-day performance since May. The S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq ripped 3.8% higher. It was the strongest session for all three indexes in roughly ten months.
Wednesday kept the momentum going with more modest gains. Then Thursday morning brought a cold shower — Trump’s Wednesday night national address didn’t include a firm timeline for ending the conflict, and oil prices spiked again. Stocks opened sharply lower but clawed their way back by the close.
By Thursday’s finish (markets were closed Friday for Good Friday), the Dow settled at 46,504.67, the S&P 500 at 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite at 21,879.18. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.36%, the Dow rose 2.96%, and the Nasdaq led with its best week since November.
Still, let’s keep perspective. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 3.24%, the S&P 500 is off 3.84%, and the Nasdaq is trailing by 5.86%. This war has taken a real bite out of 2026 gains.
Bonds & Treasuries
The bond market told an interesting story this week. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.44% to 4.31%, as investors balanced geopolitical anxiety with the possibility of de-escalation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered dovish-leaning comments, saying long-term inflation expectations still appear anchored despite the Middle East chaos. He noted the Fed tends to “look through” supply shocks — a signal that the central bank isn’t panicking about oil-driven inflation just yet.
The Fed held steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, and markets are pricing in almost no chance of a move at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 77.5% probability the Fed holds through year-end. One or two cuts remain on the table for late 2026, but only if inflation cooperates and the labor market keeps softening.
Here’s a financial fact worth remembering: since 1926, bonds have posted positive returns in roughly 70% of all calendar years. Even in messy environments like this one, fixed income still does its job over time.
US Market Highlights
- March jobs report (released this morning): The economy added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls, crushing the consensus estimate of 59,000. That’s a strong rebound from February’s revised 133,000 job loss. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, though the labor force shrank by 396,000 workers, which muddied the picture. Average hourly earnings rose just 5% year-over-year — the slowest pace since May 2021.
- Health care drove most of the gains with 76,000 jobs added, partly boosted by returning Kaiser Permanente strike workers. Construction added 26,000 and transportation and warehousing tacked on 21,000.
- Federal government continued shedding jobs, losing 18,000 positions in March as the administration pushes further workforce reductions.
- SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO with the SEC, aiming for a potential $1.75 trillion valuation and a June listing. If it goes through, it would be the largest public offering in history, ahead of anticipated filings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Tesla shares got a sympathy lift on the news.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 7%, showing continued expansion in the factory sector despite elevated energy costs.
- The VIX dropped 5% to 25.25 on Tuesday’s rally, though futures remain elevated around 24, telling me the market isn’t fully relaxed yet.
Global Highlights
- Europe had a strong week. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 92%. Germany’s DAX rose 3.89%, France’s CAC 40 climbed 3.48%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB led the continent with a 5.18% gain. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 4.70%. These markets were coming off their worst month since 2008, so the bounce was welcome.
- Japan bucked the trend. The Nikkei 225 fell 7% and the TOPIX shed 1.0%. The yen strengthened to 159.3 against the dollar, and intervention worries lingered after USD/JPY briefly topped 160 earlier in the week. The 10-year JGB yield edged up to 2.39%.
- China was flat to slightly mixed. The CSI 300 slipped 53%, the Shanghai Composite was basically flat at +0.14%, and the Hang Seng eked out a 0.66% gain.
- The S. dollar softened late in the week on de-escalation hopes, trimming its safe-haven bid. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index still ended March up about 2.4% — its best month since July.
Commodities & Crypto
- Oil was the wildest ride of the week. Brent crude dropped to around $104.86 midweek on cease-fire speculation, down from above $110. Then Trump’s Wednesday night address reignited supply fears, and WTI spiked to $111.29 on Thursday — an 4% single-day jump. Brent ended near $107.57. Gas prices crossed above $4.00 per gallon nationally for the first time since 2022. Oil is up roughly 60% since the conflict began.
- Gold pulled back from its late-January all-time highs and remains under pressure, trading around $4,675 per ounce — more than $1,000 below the peak. Rising yields and a firmer dollar weighed on the metal despite the geopolitical backdrop.
- Silver dropped about 85% on the week to around $72.90 per ounce.
- Bitcoin held its ground in the $66,500 to $69,170 range, showing some resilience compared to traditional risk assets. It ended the week around $68,500, up about 3% on the week. Analysts see $66,000 as the key support level and $71,000 as the ceiling to watch. The crypto market is in a “wait and see” mode as tax-season selling pressure typically kicks in during early April.
- Ethereum traded near $2,133, while XRP sat around $1.35.
Calendar
Next week brings a packed schedule. Here’s what I’m watching:
- Monday, April 6: Bank holidays across Europe, Australia, and New Zealand (Easter Monday). Limited trading volumes expected.
- Tuesday, April 7: Markets resume normal trading. Light on data.
- Wednesday, April 8: FOMC Meeting Minutes from the March meeting — this is the big one. I want to hear how concerned Fed officials really are about the oil shock and stagflation risk. Also, Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision.
- Thursday, April 9: Core PCE Price Index (month-over-month), Final Q4 GDP revision, Weekly Jobless Claims.
- Friday, April 10: CPI report (Consumer Price Index, both monthly and annual). Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment This CPI print matters — a lot. If inflation is ticking up from oil pass-through, the Fed’s “look through” stance gets harder to defend.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on OPEC-JMMC meetings this weekend (April 5) for any production signals, and the IMF meetings starting April 14.
It was a good week, all things considered. The first green week in over a month. But I’ve been around long enough to know that one good week doesn’t make a trend — it just makes you feel a little better about checking your portfolio. The Iran situation, oil prices, and a slowing labor market all remain front and center. Stay diversified, stay patient, and I’ll see you next Friday.
