The Stock Market’s Thanksgiving Rally with a Shopping Spree Twist (Weekly Cheat Sheet)

Ah, the stock market – that ever-twisting, turning beast that keeps investors on their toes. This past week, even with one less trading day due to Thanksgiving, was no exception. But wait, there’s more! It wasn’t just about stocks; the holiday shopping season kicked off with a bang, too. And let’s not forget the bond market and interest rates playing their own pivotal roles. Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of what went down, shall we?

The Big Picture: Indices on the Rise

Despite a shorter trading week, the stock market didn’t hit the pause button. Major indices like the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw green, climbing up the ladder with gains that would make any investor crack a smile. The Nasdaq Composite, for instance, jumped by 0.9% for the week, while the S&P 500 wasn’t far behind with a 1.0% increase. The Dow Jones? It strutted ahead with a 1.3% gain. Not too shabby, right?

Sector Scoop: Health Care and Consumer Staples Lead the Charge

In the world of sectors, health care, and consumer staples were the stars of the show. Health care surged by 2.2%, while consumer staples weren’t far behind with a 1.4% uptick. Communication services also got in on the action, rising by 1.3%. On the flip side, energy, utilities, and information technology played it cool, with more modest gains. Energy inched up by just 0.3%, utilities by 0.6%, and information technology also by 0.6%.

Bond Market and Interest Rates: A Delicate Dance

The bond market had its own story this week. U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, saw some fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgages and other significant loans, experienced some ups and downs but remained in a relatively tight range, reflecting the market’s ongoing assessment of economic growth and inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates continued to be a hot topic. Investors are keenly watching for any signs of rate hikes or cuts, which could significantly impact both the bond and stock markets.

Stock Spotlight: NVIDIA’s Rollercoaster Week

NVIDIA (NVDA), the AI chip giant, was the talk of the town. After announcing blowout quarterly results, the company faced some head-scratching over how export curbs to China might impact future sales. Despite a rally of 25% from its October low, NVIDIA saw a bit of a dip post-earnings, sparking chatter about whether this was a classic case of “selling on the news” or genuine concern over sales visibility in China.

Retail Rumble: Thanksgiving and Black Friday Online Sales Soar

Now, let’s talk turkey – and shopping! Thanksgiving Day online sales jumped a whopping 5.5% this year, raking in a cool $5.6 billion. It seems discounts were the name of the game, luring holiday shoppers to click and buy. But hold onto your hats, because Black Friday was expected to outdo even that, with online spending projected to climb to an eye-popping $9.6 billion, marking a 5.7% increase year over year. Talk about shopping galore!

Economic Data: A Mixed Bag

The economic data painted a picture with different shades. On one hand, existing home sales in October hit their slowest pace since August 2010, transpiring at an annual pace of 3.79 million. On the other, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 18 dropped to a surprisingly low 209,000. Talk about a mixed bag!

In Conclusion: A Week of Resilience, Gains, Shopping Frenzy, and Bond Market Watchfulness

In a nutshell, the stock market showed resilience and an appetite for gains, even in a shortened trading week. With major indices climbing and sectors like health care and consumer staples leading the way, it was a week that left investors with more to be thankful for. And let’s not forget the shopping frenzy that kicked off the holiday season with record-breaking online sales. Meanwhile, the bond market and interest rates continued their delicate dance, keeping investors on their toes.

As we look ahead, the market’s next moves will be closely watched, especially with a packed week of economic data and earnings on the horizon. Stay tuned, folks – the market’s story is far from over, and the shopping season has just begun!

CALENDAR & MOVERS

  • Tuesday, Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday, GDP
  • Thursday, PCE
  • Friday, Unemployment
  • OPEC+ Meeting
  • Fed Talks
  • Earnings

Next week promises to be a whirlwind in the world of finance, with eyes on everything from OPEC+ meetings to a flurry of earnings reports. Let’s unpack what’s on the horizon, shall we?

Energy Sector: A Close Watch on OPEC+

The energy sector is abuzz with anticipation for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which has been delayed amidst reports of internal disagreements about production cuts. This meeting is critical, as crude oil futures have stabilized recently but have seen a decline of over 10% in the past six weeks. The outcome of this meeting is pivotal, with Seeking Alpha analyst Zoltan Ban highlighting crude oil prices as a crucial determinant of interest rates and market performance in the coming year.

Economic Reports: A Week Packed with Data

The week ahead is also loaded with key economic reports. We’re looking at updates on new home sales, consumer confidence, construction spending, and the latest insights on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. The PCE core inflation reading is anticipated to reveal a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 3.5% year-over-year rise, keeping market watchers on their toes.

Corporate Highlights: Amazon and Tesla in the Spotlight

On the corporate front, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is set to generate some AI excitement with its re:Invent conference. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) is gearing up for a significant event at its Austin Gigafactory, marking the first official deliveries of the much-anticipated Cybertruck. Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, has set an ambitious target of producing 200,000 Cybertrucks annually, though he candidly acknowledges the challenges in scaling up manufacturing. The week will also see the release of November’s first batch of delivery reports from various automakers.

Earnings Calendar: Tech Takes the Stage

The earnings calendar is heavily skewed towards the tech sector. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • Monday, November 27: Zscaler (ZS) and Seadrill Limited (SDRL) take the earnings spotlight.
  • Tuesday, November 28: Watch out for reports from Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Splunk (SPLK), NetApp (NTAP), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and CrowdStrike (CRWD).
  • Wednesday, November 29: Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Hormel Foods (HRL), and Five Below (FIVE) are up next.
  • Thursday, November 30: Earnings from Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Dell Technologies (DELL), and Kroger (KR) are due.
  • Friday, December 1: The week wraps up with Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Dividends: Who’s Upping the Ante?

In dividend news, several companies are expected to hike their payouts. La-Z-Boy (LZB) is projected to increase its dividend to $0.20 from $0.1815, Graco (GGG) to $0.2525 from $0.235, Morningstar (MORN) to $0.40 from $0.375, and Merck (MRK) to $0.77 from $0.73.

Wrapping Up: A Week Full of Action

In summary, the upcoming week is shaping up to be a rollercoaster of activity in the markets. From critical OPEC+ meetings and a slew of economic reports to a tech-heavy earnings calendar and Tesla’s Cybertruck rollout, there’s no shortage of events that could sway the markets. Stay tuned, as these developments unfold, offering insights and opportunities for keen market observers and participants.

COMMODITIES

ENERGY

The OPEC+ alliance is currently experiencing its fair share of drama, with internal disagreements causing quite a stir. As a result, the meeting that was initially set for November 26 in Vienna has been pushed back to November 30. This deadlock over the future policy of the organization is a significant uncertainty for the market. The last scenario OPEC+ wants is to be caught in a stalemate during a crucial meeting. Despite a drop in oil prices, the overall weekly balance remains relatively neutral. A notable factor was the sharp increase in weekly US oil inventories, which saw a rise of +8 million barrels, adding pressure to the market. In terms of pricing, Brent is hovering around $81, while WTI is trading near $76.

GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS

The industrial metals market is seeing a phase of consolidation, with copper being the standout as it continues its upward trajectory in London, reaching around $8,300. Aluminum, on the other hand, has lost some ground. This decline was influenced by a report from the International Aluminium Institute, indicating a 3.9% year-on-year increase in production in October. Zinc also faced downward pressure due to a rise in LME inventories. Meanwhile, gold is making another attempt to breach the $2,000/oz mark. Will this effort be successful? The market eagerly awaits the outcome.

CRYPTOCURRENCY

Despite facing significant regulatory hurdles, including a hefty $4.3 billion fine from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for violations related to money transfer laws and US sanctions, Binance, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, is navigating through turbulent waters. The company has also seen a major shift in leadership, parting ways with its iconic CEO, Changpeng Zhao. However, in an unexpected twist, the cryptocurrency market has shown remarkable resilience.

Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has surprisingly risen by about 1% this week, now floating around the $37,750 mark. This uptick signals that, contrary to what many might have anticipated, the Binance saga hasn’t triggered a wave of panic among crypto investors.

Meanwhile, Ether, the second most valuable cryptocurrency, has been outshining Bitcoin in terms of performance. Since Monday, Ether has seen an impressive nearly 5% increase, climbing back above the $2,100 threshold. This surge in Ether’s value is a notable development in the ever-dynamic crypto market.

Adding to the positive sentiment, the total market valuation of cryptocurrencies has crossed the $1400 billion mark for the first time since May 2022. This milestone underscores the growing investor confidence and the robust nature of the cryptocurrency market, even in the face of regulatory challenges and leadership changes in major crypto firms like Binance.

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