“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett knew what he was talking about. Last week’s market showed us exactly why patience matters in this business.
The S&P 500 bounced back with a solid 6% gain last week, mainly thanks to the White House walking back some of its tariff plans. But don’t pop the champagne just yet. What we’re seeing is classic market uncertainty during a policy rollout that changes daily – sometimes hourly.
I’ve traded through three administrations that loved tariffs, and this one’s taking the cake for unpredictability. This is a good thing because DC needs to change. We can’t continue the easy route. The “reciprocal” tariffs got suspended for 90 days while the 10% universal tariff stayed put. China, meanwhile, got hit with even higher rates after their retaliation.
Then Friday evening – after markets closed, naturally – the administration dropped a new list of exemptions for electronics like smartphones and laptops. But on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said these items were only exempted temporarily because they’ll soon get their own special tariffs. Clear as mud, right?
US Markets
Despite last week’s rally, we’re still below pre-tariff levels. The S&P 500 would need another 5.7% gain just to get back to where we were before “Liberation Day.” Some other key points:
- Core inflation eased to a 4-year low at 2.8%, with headline CPI dropping to 2.4% in March
- Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.4%, the first drop since 2023
- US budget deficit hit $1.3 trillion in the first six months of the fiscal year
- Fed’s Kashkari warned investors are moving away from the US
- TSMC posted a 42% Q1 revenue surge on AI demand
Small caps have taken the worst beating in this selloff, despite coming into the year with better valuations than large caps. The sector picture shows only consumer staples and utilities with positive returns this year, while tech and consumer discretionary lag badly.
Global Markets
The falling dollar has one upside – international stocks are outperforming. Latin America and Europe are both up over 5% this year. But there’s plenty of trouble brewing:
- China hit back with 125% tariffs on US goods, matching our 125% levies
- The EU and China have restarted trade talks, partly in response to US pressure
- Chinese deflation is worsening amid the trade tensions
- Germany cut its 2025 growth forecast to just 0.1%
- The UK economy beat forecasts with 0.5% growth
- BYD is bringing premium EVs to Europe despite trade tensions
- Prada acquired Versace in a $1.4B deal after delays
Commodities & Crypto Corner
Oil markets crashed, with Brent crude dropping 12.5% in just two trading days – a move historically associated with recessions. The EIA cut its price forecasts to $67.87 per barrel for 2025 and $61.48 for 2026.
Gold exploded 6.6% higher to reach all-time highs, closing at $3,200 per ounce. Gold mining ETFs like GDX and GDXJ rocketed up 19%. Silver gained 8.3% but stayed below its 2024 peak.
Bitcoin closed at $83,730, up about 6.8% for the week despite volatility. Ethereum showed strength against Bitcoin, and Kaspa Coin jumped 13% ahead of its May 5 hard fork. Ripple acquired prime brokerage firm Hidden Road for $1.25 billion.
Key Events & Calendar
This week brings important data and earnings:
- Housing starts (Thursday) will give insight into supply constraints
- March retail sales data arrives amid signs of consumer spending slowdown
- Earnings from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Netflix
My Take
The dollar is at the bottom of its three-year range, with a breakdown through 99 potentially triggering another 10% drop. This leads me to think we could possibly be entering a weak dollar period.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged last week and looks headed toward 5% – a level that would seriously damage the administration’s economic plans. Mortgage rates are already jumping up, so expect housing to drop.
Let’s be clear: this trade war could be just getting started. Stay nimble, focus on quality, and don’t try to catch every falling knife. I am selling puts on stocks I want to buy.
The Trump administration has an extremely difficult job given the hand they were dealt. My guess is that they are trying to get better trade deals to offset the deficit and out-of-control government spending. Unless you believe in the modern monetary theory, the numbers are truly scary.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is the right man for the job. He understands economics and is promoting a strategic, long-term, strong America. He acknowledges that continuing the current level of government spending would have been the easiest course of action, but he believes it is not a sustainable long-term solution.
Bessent, along with President Trump, recognizes that the transition away from heavy government spending may require a period of “pain” in the short term, but ultimately lead to long-term economic benefits.
And remember – in markets driven by policy whiplash, cash isn’t trash. It’s dry powder for the opportunities that always emerge from chaos.
