The dollar has posted fresh highs for a fifth consecutive day, pegging a three-month high at 92.70 by the measure of the DXY narrow trade-weighted index. The greenback is up nearly 1% for the week, and has risen by 3.5% compared to the low seen in late may. The dollar has gained this week despite the flattening of U.S. Treasury yields.
Crude oil prices are now around $75.50. They remain 1.5% higher than the previous week and 9.2% higher than a month ago. The OPEC+ Group yesterday postponed its decision on the output quotas. They are now aiming to come to an agreement today. Global stock markets The mood has been buoyant but mixed. The S&P 500 posted a fresh record peak yesterday, though the Dow and Nasdaq have remain their recent highs, as have indices in Asia and Europe.
The markets were already largely doomed on Thursday by the BLS report. Treasuries were either side of unchanged. Longer maturities opened modestly. gains amid a more cautious tone given rising concerns Rates were virtually unchanged at the close of play.
Nevertheless, the 10-year interest rate has remained below the 1,50% mark for a fourth straight session as well as nine of the 10 previous sessions. Wall Street was in rallying mode as the second half began. More highs were set on the S&P 500 which climbed through the 4300 mark to 4317. ISM manufacturing data, jobless claims and construction spending were ignored for the important employment numbers that are coming up.
Today’s agenda is all about June’s unemployment report. We expect nonfarm pay to increase by 550k instead of the previous 559k. Workweeks are expected to remain the same at 34.9 hours, but hourly earnings will rise by 0.2%. The unemployment should drop to 5.6%, from 5.8%. In the May trade report, it is expected that the deficit will increase to -$69.5 billion from -$68.9 billion. It is expected that May factory orders will increase by 1.7% compared to -0.6%.
The Treasury market will close early on Monday, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. No larger-cap earnings are due.
