This week in the stock market was nothing short of a spectacle, with the S&P 500 achieving a landmark feat that left many investors and market enthusiasts wide-eyed. For the first time in its history, the S&P 500 closed above the elusive 5,000 mark, a milestone that underscores the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of the financial markets.
However, several dark clouds are forming that could make the recent highs the peak of a roller coaster. Let’s get into it.
Last Week Markets
The S&P 500’s Milestone
Whoa, the S&P 500 did something remarkable this week – it closed above 5,000 for the first time! Gains in the mega-cap and semiconductor sectors supported this milestone. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 2.6%, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) saw an impressive 5.3% increase.
But it wasn’t just these sectors shining bright. The equal-weighted S&P 500 also saw a modest gain of 0.5%. Interestingly, there wasn’t any major selling frenzy despite some murmurs about the market being overbought in the short term. In fact, this concern seemed to fuel further buying – talk about a paradox!
Standout Performers and Laggards
- Earnings Winners: Companies like Ford (F), Eli Lilly (LLY), DuPont (DD), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Walt Disney (DIS) basked in the glory of positive earnings reports.
- Earnings Losers: On the flip side, Amgen (AMGN) and PayPal (PYPL) didn’t fare as well, impacted by their earnings outcomes.
Bonds and Interest Rates: A Tug of War
The bond market saw some action too. The 2-yr note yield rose to 4.50%, and the 10-yr note yield climbed to 4.19%. This uptick in yields (which means bond prices fell) was a reaction to strong economic data and a reevaluation of rate cut expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments added to this sentiment, emphasizing a need for clear evidence of inflation cooling down before considering rate cuts.
Economic Data Insights
- ISM Services PMI: This index, which measures the health of the services sector, showed a jump, indicating robust activity. It’s a sign that the economy isn’t ready for rate cuts just yet.
- Jobless Claims: The number of claims dropped, suggesting the labor market remains strong.
- CPI Revisions: These didn’t significantly alter the market’s view on inflation, which is a relief for many.
Broader Economic and Global Developments
- Credit Card Delinquencies: A worrying 50% surge in 2023, with consumer debt hitting a record $17.5 trillion.
- Corporate Moves: Layoffs at Snap, DocuSign, Cisco, and Toyota’s $1.3 billion investment in an EV plant in Kentucky.
- Global Market Trends: China’s deflation issues and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate stance are key developments to watch.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Diversification is Key: The varied performance across sectors highlights the importance of a diversified portfolio.
- Economic Indicators Matter: Keeping an eye on economic data like the ISM Services PMI and jobless claims can provide crucial insights into market trends.
- Global Developments Impact Markets: From China’s deflation to corporate restructuring, global events can significantly influence market dynamics.
Oil & Energy
Oil prices are like a yo-yo, aren’t they? Just when you think you’ve got a handle on them, they swing in an entirely new direction. This week, we saw crude prices rise amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and shifting production forecasts.
- Middle East Uncertainty: The situation in the Middle East remains a powder keg. Israel’s refusal to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, coupled with the US’s actions against pro-Tehran groups in Iraq, has only added fuel to the fire.
- US Energy Agency’s Forecast: Adding to the mix, the US Energy Agency threw a curveball by revising its 2024 production outlook, now expecting it to peak at just below 13.3 million barrels per day.
- Brent Crude and WTI Prices: On the price front, Brent crude oil made a comeback, leaping over the $80 mark to settle at $81.7. Meanwhile, US WTI isn’t far behind, trading around $76.50.
- Natural Gas: Over in Europe, natural gas prices are playing it cool, lateralizing at 27 EUR/MWh for the Rotterdam TTF.
Gold & Metals
The world of industrial metals ended the week with a bit of a jumble. It’s like a game of musical chairs, with some metals finding a seat and others left standing.
- Aluminum and Tin: These two managed to gain ground, showing some resilience in an otherwise uncertain market.
- Copper, Zinc, and Lead: On the flip side, copper, zinc, and lead took a step back. Copper, in particular, felt the heat, trading at around $8,200 per tonne in London. It’s battling against a stronger US dollar and increased production in Peru, the world’s second-largest producer.
- Precious Metals: Gold seems to be treading water at $2025, while silver is losing its shine at $22.50. Palladium, unfortunately, continues its downward spiral to $870.
Crypto
Cryptocurrencies, the wild cards of the financial world, have once again surprised us all.
- Bitcoin’s Impressive Surge: Bitcoin, the king of crypto, soared by more than 11% this week, brushing against the $47,500 mark. It’s like watching a phoenix rise from the ashes!
- Ether’s Steady Climb: Not to be outdone, Ether is hot on Bitcoin’s heels, up almost 10% since Monday and breaking past the $2,500 threshold.
- Investors’ Renewed Appetite for Risk: This resurgence in crypto-assets seems to be part of a broader trend of investors getting their groove back, as seen in the all-time highs on US stock indices.
- ETFs Attracting Attention: The Bitcoin Spot ETFs, launched just a month ago, are turning heads. The BlackRock ETF (IBIT) raised a whopping $3.5 billion, while the Fidelity ETF (FBTC) isn’t far behind with $2.81 billion. February 8 was a particularly good day, with BlackRock and Fidelity recording inflows of $204.1 million and $128.3 million, respectively.
Calendar & Movers
Economonic Reports
Next week is packed with economic releases that will keep investors on their toes. Here’s what’s coming up:
- Tuesday – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports: These are key indicators of inflation. A higher-than-expected rise could signal increased inflationary pressures, impacting interest rates.
- Thursday – Retail Sales Report: This data provides insights into consumer spending, a major driver of the economy.
- Thursday – Philadelphia Fed Index Update: It’s a significant gauge of manufacturing health in the Philadelphia region.
- Thursday – Industrial Production Report: This measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
- Friday – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey: It offers a snapshot of consumer confidence, which can influence spending and saving behaviors.
These reports could provide vital clues about the economy’s direction, influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. So, keep your eyes peeled!
Earnings Reports: The Corporate Scorecards
Apart from economic data, several key earnings reports are due next week. Let’s break them down:
Monday, February 12
- Arista Networks (ANET)
- Avis Budget Group (CAR)
- The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)
- monday.com (MNDY)
Tuesday, February 13
- Coca-Cola (KO)
- Shopify (SHOP)
- Airbnb (ABNB)
- Marriott International (MAR)
- Datadog (DDOG)
- Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
- Hasbro (HAS)
- Biogen (BIIB)
- Upstart Holdings (UPST)
- Lyft (LYFT)
Wednesday, February 14
- Cisco (CSCO)
- Sony (SONY)
- The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
- Global Payments (GPN)
- Twilio (TWLO)
- QuantumScape (QS)
Thursday, February 15
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Deere (DE)
- Stellantis (STLA)
- DoorDash (DASH)
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN)
- Coinbase Global (COIN)
- SunPower (SPWR)
- Roku (ROKU)
Friday, February 16
- TC Energy (TRP)
- Vulcan Materials (VMC)
These reports will give us a peek into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. Strong earnings could boost investor confidence, while disappointments might raise concerns about corporate health.
Hedge Fund 13F Filings: The Big Reveal
Investors are also eagerly awaiting hedge fund 13F filings. These filings will reveal Q4 positions, including any significant moves with the Magnificent Seven Group:
- Apple (AAPL)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Alphabet (GOOGL)
- Meta Platforms (META)
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Nvidia (NVDA)
- Tesla (TSLA)
These filings can offer valuable insights into hedge fund strategies and market trends.
M&A Spotlight: A Hawaiian Twist
On the M&A front, shareholders of Hawaiian Holdings (HA) will vote on the pending deal with Alaska Air Group (ALK). This decision could have significant implications for the airline industry.
