S&P 500 and Nasdaq Break Losing Streak Amid Economic Uncertainty (Weekly Cheat Sheet)

The stock market has been grappling with familiar concerns this past week – economic growth, corporate earnings, and tariffs. Despite these headwinds, I’m pleased to report that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to break their four-week losing streaks, with gains of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

This rebound wasn’t just driven by mega-caps; the equal-weighted S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher than last Friday, suggesting a broader market recovery.

In the bond market, Treasuries settled with solid gains. The 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield dropped seven basis points to 3.95%. These movements reflect the market’s response to the Federal Reserve’s latest decisions and economic projections.

Speaking of the Fed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was undoubtedly the headline event this week. Here’s what you need to know:

• The committee held rates steady, maintaining the federal funds target range at 4.25-4.50%.
• They decided to slow the monthly runoff of Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting April 1.
• The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) presented a mixed picture, lowering 2025 GDP growth forecasts while raising inflation projections.

US Markets

1. Bank of America’s CEO made waves by stating the economy is “better than people think” and urging the Fed to keep rates on hold through 2026. His optimism is based on resilient consumer spending and steady 2% growth projections.
2. The housing market surprised us all with existing home sales surging 4.2% in February, defying higher mortgage rates. This uptick was driven by rising inventory and pent-up demand, with luxury homes leading the charge.
3. Retail sales grew by a modest 0.2% last month, missing estimates after January’s sharp 1.2% drop. Growth in health, food, and online sales helped offset declines in other sectors.
4. In a significant move, PepsiCo acquired prebiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.95 billion. This acquisition strengthens Pepsi’s position in the rapidly growing functional soda market.
5. On the political front, President Trump signed an executive order to shut down the Department of Education, shifting control and funding to individual states. This move is already facing legal challenges.

Global Markets

1. Central banks worldwide, including those in China, England, and Japan, held rates steady this week. This collective pause reflects the delicate balance between managing sluggish growth and persistent inflation pressures.
2. The OECD revised its growth forecasts downward, with U.S. GDP now projected at 2.2% for 2025 and global growth slowing to 3.1%. These adjustments factor in the impact of tariffs on trade.
3. Germany passed a historic debt reform to boost defense spending, easing its strict debt brake and creating a €500 billion infrastructure fund. This marks a significant shift in fiscal policy for Europe’s largest economy.
4. The EU delayed tariffs on U.S. goods until mid-April, allowing more time for negotiations. This $28 billion retaliation plan targets various U.S. products, including steel, aluminum, and bourbon.
5. Geopolitical tensions escalated as Israel launched extensive strikes on Gaza, resulting in over 400 casualties. The collapse of the ceasefire has raised concerns about regional stability and its potential impact on global markets.

Commodities & Crypto Corner

Oil prices settled higher this week, recording their second consecutive weekly gain. This increase was driven by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and a new OPEC+ plan for output cuts. Both Brent crude and WTI were on track to increase by approximately 2%, marking their most significant weekly gains since the start of 2025.

Gold prices made headlines by breaking past the $3,000 per ounce mark. This milestone reflects growing investor interest in safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Despite a slight dip on Friday, gold still managed to secure its third consecutive weekly gain.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin traded sideways below $85,000, hovering around $84,130 by week’s end. Ethereum struggled to breach the $2,000 resistance level, trading around $1,985. The global crypto market cap stood at $2.76 trillion, with trading volumes remaining relatively subdued.

Key Events & Calendar

As we look to the week ahead, here are the key events I’ll be watching closely:

• Flash PMI readings from S&P and another estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth
• The release of the core personal consumption expenditures price index for February (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure)
• The highly anticipated IPO of CoreWeave (CRWV), an Nvidia-backed cloud computing firm aiming for a valuation of up to $26 billion
• Potential updates on upcoming U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect on April 2
• Earnings reports from notable companies including KB Homes, GameStop, Lululemon Athletica, and Chewy

Monday, March 24:

• Earnings reports after market close:
  • KB Homes (KBH)
  • Oklo (OKLO)
  • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC)

Tuesday, March 25:

• 9:45 AM EDT: S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI (March)
• Earnings reports before market open:
  • McCormick & Co. (MKC)
• Earnings reports after market close:
  • GameStop (GME)
  • Core & Main (CNM)
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD)
  • Pony AI (PONY)

Wednesday, March 26:

• 8:30 AM EDT: U.S. Q4 GDP Growth (Final Estimate)
• Earnings reports before market open:
  • Cintas (CTAS)
  • Paychex (PAYX)
• Earnings reports after market close:
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR)
  • Chewy (CHWY)
  • Jefferies Financial Group (JEF)

Thursday, March 27:

• Expected IPO: CoreWeave (CRWV) on Nasdaq
• Earnings reports before market open:
  • TD SYNNEX (SNX)
  • Winnebago Industries (WGO)
• Earnings reports after market close:
  • Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
  • Braze (BRZE)
  • AAR (AIR)

Friday, March 28:

• 8:30 AM EDT: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February

Throughout the week:

• Ongoing monitoring for updates on U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2

As we navigate these market dynamics, it’s worth remembering a crucial fact about investing: historically, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of about 10% over the long term. This statistic underscores the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective, even as we analyze short-term market movements.