Just me, I don’t consider Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) like a meme stock, like AMC or GME. Do you really think that there are enough similarities between Tesla and those two to all throw them in the same basket? I mean, there, there is there, the circles overlap on the edges and I would describe it. There is a kind of religious aspect to the Tesla conversation.
Do people think Don something? No, it’s, I mean, the other ones, I, I don’t, I don’t need anyone and it seems like there’s a little more to go on. I see a lot of Teslas on the road. It’s not a, I wouldn’t put it in the meme stock. I see. Gordon’s point is just about kind of the emotion around it. I would just. The goal here is not to prescribe to one religion or the other, the believers or the nonbelievers it’s to identify what’s going on with the fundamentals.
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And Gordon points out that there could be some talent attrition, some important talent that probably he’s saying he’s going to stay. He’s not going to be around in five years. I feel good about that, but I think what’s most important related to meme stacks and what the difference here is to the fundamentals.
Come back to our job is to identify how many vehicles are they going to sell for the next two to five? What’s the profitability of those vehicles. I mean, it’s as simple as that. And I would say on the identifying vehicle perspective, if, if we’re gonna take the approach of trying to cut through the noise, Gordon’s great at sharing with me different insights.
He has, I have an insight for people to look at, and this is inspired by Rob Mauer, who is pretty active, I would say, in identifying every detail around Tesla. Rob pointed out. GM has a new factory in SpringHill, Michigan. It is their new electric lyric is the new car is just opening up. They also have the gig up Berlin factory.
Both of those have videos that have been released. One of them was produced by GM. The other was not produced by test. But I would just look at those videos. And the reason why I mentioned that I think it draws a stark distinction. Now GM is not the whole auto industry, but how traditional auto is approaching manufacturing versus how Tesla is.
It is a well-spent seven minutes of viewing. And I think that that really anchors or, or is, is evidence to me about this gap that we have in terms of production. And ultimately what I think is going to drive the stock, which is how many vehicles they’re going to produce. And one last point and I’ll turn it back to Gordon is that they can’t keep up with the demand for Shanghai being shut down.
That’s going to have a potentially negative impact on what the numbers are. That is very true in the near term. But I think when you see delivery times for model three, being this summer model, why the earliest in the US is October 22 to January 23. They give them. They have reported a million and a half pre-orders for cyber trucks that T the Ford electric one 50 has somewhere around 250,000 something bigger is going on.
And we’re just at the beginning of it. We’re not, I was if you were actually short the stock, I was thinking, it looked like you were, you were doing okay there earlier this month, and you could have covered at seven 50, just around there. I’m just wondering as a, as a. Just as a guy that comes on and talks about Tessa, when wouldn’t, that have been a good time to, to throw in the towel and say, all right, it’s cheap enough now where I’m going along.
And I’m a believer now, or do you think we’re going back? Do you think we’ll go back down all the way to where it was, where you saw in that chart, and then back below that, and you think it’ll be below 500 pre-split again. Yeah, I think Tesla’s going significantly lower, and listen, Joe, you get their market rallies.
Look, we’re at an SVP level right now, above where we were at pre-war yet the war hasn’t ended and you have earnings coming out that I think are going to be bad but to change. Listen, we can talk about videos made unofficially by fanboys of Tesla and compare that to videos made by GM. But let’s look at the numbers.
G let’s look at the 10 K where Tesla said their operations lost money. Their Shanghai operations were over 100% of their profit. Look at the Shanghai operation. Specifically, all of the costs are back in loaded. So I think Tesla is one of these. Efficient manufacturers of cars. And what’s important.
Jane is how many cars are going to produce to get to a valuation that justifies a company value that more than the entire auto industry combined, they need to be adding roughly a hundred thousand cars, a quarter of incremental cells. And I believe their selves this quarter could actually be down. So I think you’ve got to look at the reality, Jane, and not just look at these.
Anecdotal details from Tesla, you know, Twitter writers. And one last thing I’ll note again, I think it’s very important to keep in mind their market share is falling. And again, when these Q1 numbers come out, what’s going to happen in the fact that they AK to an event that’s six months out. I think that speaks volumes to what they’re looking at.
It looks like they’re more focused on the stock versus the product. So, so Joe, I think that you know, as the market does bear market rally fizzles out, which we think is how. I think that the numbers are coming out of Tesla are going to disappoint. And I think the stock has a significant downside here to the main, main perspective.
I think it is a mean stock because you have them doing things like putting out eight Ks on events that haven’t even happened versus real events like their Shanghai factory being shut down. So I think we got to focus on the front of the middles. And when you do that, it doesn’t look good. Shepherd Smith here.
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