This morning the Headline CPI prices soared by 1.3 percent M/M in May, shattering consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, the YoY headline CPI inflation reached a new 40-year high of 9.1 percent in the meantime. Most thought it was going to be high, but this was the largest monthly increase since the early 1980s.
Most Americans knew inflation was bad because of the increased prices, but the CPI report was just a confirmation.
Example price surges were gas prices that hit record highs in the middle of June, energy prices rose by 7.5%, and food was up 1.0%.
The sky-high inflation CPI confirmed that pricing pressures are rampant across the whole of the economy, which is eroding consumers’ purchasing power and trust.
The good news is that rising inflation will likely keep Fed officials on an aggressive policy course to restrain demand.
However, most politicians won’t reduce spending or change their fiscal policies. Biden and DC are trying to blame Russia and Putin for high inflation.
Out of Control Inflation
One thing that is certain is that we are on the road of out-of-control inflation and need to be careful wethat we are not on the same path as 1921 Weimar Germany. The current national debt is now over $30 trillion and is projected to be over $40 trillion in 2026!
The massive debt and spending didn’t happen overnight. For years politicians increased government spending, while the Federal Reserve continued to print more money. Each time devaluing dollars and enslaving millions of Americans with more debt.
The two key promoters of more government spending are big business and big government. They lobbied for more and more spending. Their budgets increased, while most people’s real wages decrease.
Sadly, this was by design and the fault of the Fiat banking system.
When Covid hit, it was a “perfect storm” for big government spenders. Anyone that dared challenge the “Stimulus” payments were characterized as a horrible persons.
The Federal Reserve updated the numbers a little more than a year ago. It’s not 40 percent, but 50 percent or even 70% of all U.S. Dollars printed since 2020. The US has printed almost 80% of all US dollars in existence since January 2020. (See the chart above that shows the Fed M1 Money Supply vs the US Inflation Rate)
We need to look back 22 months in order to understand the extent of the Fed’s money printing. There was $4.0192 trillion of money in circulation at the beginning of 2020. The number reached $6.7 trillion dollars on January 4, 2021. The Fed then went into hyperdrive. That number reached $20.0831 trillion in circulation by October 2021.
The US dollar has been further devalued since what started out as an emergency monetary strategy to protect the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. The Federal Research has been buying $80 billion in Treasuries since March 15, 2020, and $40 billion each month in housing-backed securities. This brings the Fed’s total balance to $8.66 trillion by December 7, 2021.
Fed’s bond and asset purchase are only two of the many ways that Federal Research injects trillions of dollars into the economy. Millions of Americans were also provided stimulus checks by the U.S. government. Where did the money come from? The government needed to borrow money by selling U.S. Treasury bonds, and other securities. After the bonds have been sold, the Federal Reserve goes to work and prints money.
Fed’s excessive money printing is having a negative impact on the economy as well as people’s purchasing power. The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 6.8% in November 2021, which is the highest rate since 1982.
Inflation Cause – Sadly, Milton Friedman said it best.
The Fed’s obsession with printing will lead to further devaluation. Money printing does not necessarily improve productivity or economic output. The Fed’s current actions have been tested throughout history. The result is always the same. Let’s take, for instance, Germany. The highest monthly inflation rate grew by more than 30,000% between June 1921 in Weimar Germany and November 1923 there. Another country experiencing hyperinflation is Zimbabwe.
Money printing is not a new concept. Since 1971, the Federal Reserve has printed money after the United States abandoned the gold standard. This was in response to President Nixon’s 1971 decision to end the conversion of U.S. Dollars to gold.
Ex-President Richard Nixon stated in a speech on August 15, 1971, that he had directed Secretary of Treasury, [Treasury] Secretary Connally, to temporarily suspend the conversion of the dollar into any other reserve assets or gold, except in amounts and terms determined to be in the interests of monetary stability, and the best interest of the United States.
In 1970, the average household income was $9,400, and the cost of a home was $23,400. The average home today costs more than $200,000.
Is the Federal Reserve repeating 1921 Weimar Germany’s mistakes?
If history is any indication, the Federal Reserve’s current actions have been proven to be successful throughout history. The Federal Reserve keeps printing trillions of dollars from thin air without any productivity. It is likely that the US dollar will be devalued as a global currency.
The Federal Reserve seems to be following in the footsteps of the Weimar Republic, 1923 Germany, shortly after World War I. This country is often referred to as the “masterpiece of endless money printing”. The highest monthly inflation rate in Weimar Germany rose to over 30.000% between June 1921 – and November 1923.
It all began in 1921 when Germany stopped backing its currency with gold and instead started printing money (similar to the Federal Reserve’s current operations) to finance the war. After the war, the money-printing machines continued to print to pay reparations that were imposed on Germany by the Allies.