Following the cessation of the Bank of Canada “Pause” season, Canada’s housing market is seeing its first price decline. The Canadian Home Price Benchmark Index for single-family houses decreased by 0.5% in July month-on-month and by 0.9% year-on-year to $834,500, noting the first decline since January. This comes amidst the backdrop of fluctuating short-term interest rates, as the Canadian housing market is highly responsive to such changes, largely due to prevalent variable-rate or short-term fixed-rate mortgages.
1. The Bank of Canada’s pause and subsequent unpause on rate hikes have led to an increase in short-term yields, resulting in the first price decline in Canada’s housing market since January.
2. Variable and short-term fixed-rate mortgages in Canada, and subsequent interest rate changes, significantly impact the housing market. Since March 2022, the index has dropped by 12.2%.
3. Different areas in Canada are experiencing varied trends in the housing market, with some regions like Victoria and Hamilton-Burlington metro seeing a decline, while others, such as Calgary and Halifax-Dartmouth, are experiencing growth.
Canada’s Housing Market Affected by BoC’s Rate Hike– What’s Next?
Interest rates in Canada have been a rollercoaster ride recently, spiking from a pause-low in March of 4.0% to 5.3% today, with mortgage rates trailing along. What’s behind this sudden surge? It’s all thanks to the recent unpause of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes.
Now, this might make you wonder – what does this mean for home prices? And more importantly, how can savvy investors take advantage of these changes?
Why Are House Prices Falling?
With the “Pause” season, a period characterized by low-interest rates and an active selling market, now over, Canada’s housing market is beginning to see its first price declines. According to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canada Home Price Benchmark Index for single-family houses fell by 0.5% in July from June, and by 0.9% year-over-year, to $834,500 (all prices in Canadian dollars). This is the first decline since January. What could possibly have triggered this sudden dip?
The BoC Rate Hike Effect
Here’s the interesting part: it actually has much to do with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) recent decision to unpause their rate hikes. Since Canadian mortgages typically carry variable or short-term fixed rates, the housing market tends to react quickly to changes in these rates. So, when the BoC hiked its rates by 25 basis points each in June and July, the housing market began to feel the impact. This new, higher-for-longer interest rate environment brought with it higher short-term yields – now at 5.3% – and, consequently, the first signs of falling house prices.
How Have Different Regions Reacted?
Interestingly, the impact of these changes hasn’t been uniform across the country. From the Greater Toronto Area and Victoria experiencing price dips, to a new record price in Calgary and a relatively flat market in the Hamilton-Burlington metro, the Canadian housing market is going through some truly interesting times. But does this turmoil present any opportunities for investors?
What’s the Silver Lining for Investors?
Yes, definitely. For the discerning investor, this situation presents an array of opportunities. To start with, if you have been considering real estate investments in areas where prices are falling, this could be the ideal time to enter the market, as properties may become more affordable. Conversely, for areas experiencing a rise in prices, it could be a good time to sit tight and watch your investments grow.
Fluctuations in the housing market can cause ripples across the economy, affecting investors, homeowners, and prospective buyers alike. The current housing price flux, resulting primarily from changes in interest rates, shows how interconnected the real estate and finance industries are. By taking a step back and assessing the market holistically, savvy investors can find ways to turn these changes into opportunities.
Ready to dive in? Keep an eye on changing trends, stay informed, and make your move when the time is right.