steve reznik raymond james

Report (Premium Edition) Updated 05-10-2021

Tip: Use this as a quick guide on the short-term direction of key markets. I once had a client that would call me nearly every day asking the direction of the markets. This is a quick cheat sheet to know the trend and help understand what is happening with the markets in the short term.

Dow34777.770.66%229.2334811.3934464.31Strong Bull
S&P 5004232.610.74%30.984238.044201.64Bull
Crude (WTI)65.2680.67%0.43565.7264.833Bull
10 Year1.574−0.89%−0.0141.6041.574Bear
US Dollar Index90.106−0.14%−0.12390.33990.102Strong Bear
REIT Index2438.671.26%30.452439.992407.66Strong Bull

S&P 500 Sectors

Tip: Use this section to know the performance of various sectors, weight portfolios, or look for trades. Modern portfolio theory stresses the importance of diversification, but recently several sectors like technology have outperformed others like utilities. This is also a way to narrow the sectors to find investment opportunities.

REIT Alert: Due to Covid-19, there is a large percentage of people that have not paid rent or mortgages. We are very worried about the effect it could have on real estate investment trusts (REITS) value. Even though the sectors may trending bullish, we believe that REITs could have a significant drop in value.

Sector Name5-Day Return1-Month Return3-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year Return5-Year ReturnTrend
 Basic Materials6.30%11.10%21.10%23.40%10.30%56.00%108.40%Bull
 Communication Services-0.60%1.20%7.10%14.90%1.90%71.10%66.90%Bull
 Consumer Cyclical-0.50%2.70%4.80%13.60%0.50%100.20%171.50%Bull
 Consumer Defensive1.70%2.60%8.20%6.80%-6.30%55.70%54.50%Bull
 Financial Services3.80%8.00%22.20%28.60%15.50%44.40%118.40%Bull
 Real Estate-0.60%4.50%12.40%16.60%3.50%42.30%41.30%Bull

Week Ahead: Turning the Corner

INTRODUCTION (Quick Overview)

On May 10, 2021

Friday’s rally on Wall Street should be supportive for global equities, while the markets will continue to digest the surprising April jobs report. Though job gains were much weaker than expected, the overall employment report was not nearly so bad. Indeed, the markets may have gotten too far over their skies.

Key Drivers for the Week of May 10, 2021

TIP – This is a 1-minute brief bullet-point summary. It is a tool that gives investors and financial a fast and simple list of what to watch for and talking points for the week.

  • Global recovery on track despite disappointing U.S. jobs report, the covid crisis in India
  • Gas prices likely to surge because of Colonial Pipeline shutdown
  • U.S. data includes retail sales, CPI, preliminary consumer sentiment report
  • Treasury’s $126 May refunding auctions include 3-, 10-, 30-year maturities
  • Fedspeak includes Clarida, Williams, Brainard, Waller, Evans, Barkin, Daly, Bostic
  • BoC Governor Macklem speaks; manufacturing, shipments, home sales data
  • China reports CPI, PPI; Japan BoJ summary, data on consumption, current account
  • India CPI, WPI; Korea unemployment; Malaysia GDP; Philippines GDP due
  • Philippines central bank expected on hold at 2.00% policy rate
  • German ZEW investor sentiment, HICP; Eurozone industrial production 
  • UK GDP, industrial production, trade data due

The very modest gain does not signal a weakening recovery, but more likely a shortfall in labor supply for a number of reasons. There is plenty on which to focus this week including data on CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. There is also the May refunding auctions from the Treasury.

And there is plenty of Fedspeak to hit the tape, though we don’t expect the employment data changed any of the policymakers’ outlooks. A strong earnings season is also winding down. 

The dollar has managed to find a toehold after plunging on Friday on the massive U.S. jobs report disappointment. Markets were blindsided by the data, focused too much on burgeoning demand while taking their eye off the gaping pandemic-era supply-side anomaly in the labor market.

However, the trend is still BEARISH and is close to breaking through support at 90.

We believe that that is the strongest indicator of rising inflation.

Base metal prices have continued to surge to fresh trend highs.

Oil prices are off recent highs, with the market being affected by the Covid situation in India (which is among the world’s biggest imports of oil), but the bigger-picture market prognosis remains bullish given the success of vaccinations and ramping up supply capacity for vaccine production.

However, the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline will likely increase gas prices in the near future. The US government declared a state of emergency late on Sunday, lifting limits on the transport of fuels by road in a bid to keep gas supply lines open as fears of shortages spiked after the continued shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline.

We do expect a general BULLISH trend in the markets as confidence is growing that the global economy is turning the corner to stronger growth, even as infections still surge in some regions.

Eurozone confidence data should provide further evidence that the recovery is underway. In Asia, the covid crisis in India and Japan will remain on the radar amid a thin calendar.


The sizable miss in U.S. April payroll growth relative to expectations added to the already considerable scrutiny of the economic data. But, even though the 266k increase in April nonfarm payrolls came in well short of (bloated?) expectations — the Street was estimating at least a 1 mln jump — the overall report was not nearly as poor. And there were numerous anomalies in the April data that suggested job growth was restrained by a lack of workers, as opposed to flagging demand from employers.

Given the likely distortions in the labor market during April, other reports will be looked to for confirmation that the recovery continued to make solid headway at the beginning of Q2. Retail sales (Friday) will hence garner considerable attention. A flat April retail sales headline is projected with a flat ex-auto figure as well, but that would follow huge respective March pops of 9.8% and 8.4% that were lifted by stimulus checks, economic reopenings releasing pent up demand, as well as a reversal of February weakness attributable to the Texas freeze. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at rates of 10.5% in Q2 after 10.7% in Q1, and a 2.3% clip in Q4.

Inflation data remains at a premium, as the market is skeptical of policymakers’ views that the inflation pick-up is “transitory.” April CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.6% gain for the headline and 0.3% for the core in March. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -1.7% in April. But, as the Fed has warned, 12-month rates should jump, largely on base effects. As-expected April figures would result in a 3.5% headline y/y increase, following a 2.6% pace in March. Core prices should show a 2.3% y/y rise, up from 1.6% y/y in March. As with PPI (due Thursday), the headline inflation figures are being lifted by big commodity and trade price gains. Headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges should climb sharply into Q2 due to easy comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.9% area in May. The Fed will continue to interpret the Q2 inflation spike as transitory, though it’s unclear if upward commodity price pressure will abate anytime soon.

Treasury supply will be a focal point too as the $126 bln May refunding is on tap, and includes $58 bln in 3-year notes Tuesday, $41 bln in 10-year notes Wednesday, and $27 bln in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields plunged on Friday following the jobs miss, but rebounded into the close as the market looked ahead to the upcoming supply. The wi 3-year traded 2 bps richer at 0.315% late Friday, with the wi 10-year fractionally cheaper at 1.590% and the wi 30-year 3.5 bps cheaper at 2.280%. Rates here would be the richest in two months for the 3- and 30-year maturities, and since March for the 10-year. Many of the auctions this year have shown sputtering demand, leading some to worry that demand for Treasuries is diminishing. This week’s auctions will be an interesting test, especially given richer rates alongside uncertainties over inflation, and now the job market.

There is a full slate of Fedspeak with several governors slated, and all of the voting FOMC members. We’ll be on the lookout for any sign of concern over the jobs report. We do not expect it changed any outlooks as the FOMC has always warned about looking at one month’s data, and as we suspect they will see a lot of anomalies in the disappointing headline gain. The dovish voter Evans (Monday) kicks off the week and will discuss the economic outlook. There is a full slate Tuesday. NY Fed’s Williams will speak on SOFR. Governor Brainard discusses the economy. SF Fed’s Daly, also a dove, attends a community bankers event. Atlanta Fed dove Bostic speaks to the Rotary Club of Alexandria. Philly Fed’s Harker, more of a centrist, discusses the economy. Also, uber dove Kashkari will speak on the outlook as well. Then on Wednesday, VC Clarida discusses the economy. Bostic speaks to the Council of Foreign Relations. And Harker will make remarks on higher education. Then Thursday, Governor Waller gives his views on the economy. The more centrist Barkin is at the Central Maryland Chamber of Commerce. St Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks on policy and the economy. Friday sees Kaplan take part in a moderated discussion. He’s been advocating for a taper discussion later this year and a rate hike in 2022.

The earnings calendar slows down following the torrid pace of the past two week. Results have come in much better than expected across a broad swath of S&P 500 firms. Monday has Duke Energy, Air Products, Marriot, BioNTech, Simon Property, Roblox, IFF, The Trade Desk, Eversource Energy, Tyson Foods, BeiGene, Occidental Petroleum, Ameren, Viatris, Novavax, Trex, NortonLifeLock, and Weibo. Tuesday has Toyota, Vodaphone, Honda, Electronic Arts, Palantir, Transdigm. and Unity Software. Wednesday has Coupang, Takeda Pharmaceutical,, and Dynatrace. Thursday brings Alibaba, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Airbnb, Brookfield Asset Management, Coinbase Global, Bilibili, and GoodRX Holdings. Friday has ING Group and Ubiquiti.

A speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and a handful of data releases dot the calendar this week. The Governor delivers his speech on Thursday. The manufacturing report for March (Friday) is expected to show a 3.0% bounce in shipments following the 1.6% drop in February shipment values. Wholesale shipments (Friday) are seen rising 1.0% in March after the -0.7% decline in February. Existing home sales for April are expected on Friday.


Aside from the ongoing problems with the vires in various areas, the focus will remain on inflation, with plenty of CPI reports on the docket. The covid crisis in India and Japan remains on the radar, while the stepping up of vaccine programs in the U.S. and much of the Western world will continue to be closely monitored. The Asian calendar is relatively light, though it does feature a few important economic releases. China has April CPI and PPI. Japan releases March consumption, March current account figures, and the BoJ summary of opinions from the April 26-27 MPM. India April trade, CPI and production are also on tap. The only central bank meeting comes from the Philippines, where no change to the 2.00% overnight borrowing rate is anticipated.

China April CPI and PPI (Tuesday) are slated. Consumer prices are expected to rise to a 0.8% y/y pace, double the prior 0.4% clip. Producer prices are seen accelerating to 6.7% y/y from 4.4%. Japan’s BoJ releases the summary of opinions from the April 26-26 MPC on Tuesday. Policymakers provided some cheer as they provided an upbeat forecast on the economy, seeing 2021 growth in the 3.3% to 4.0% range after the -4.8% rate of contraction. However, they also warned that the virus remains a threat. March consumption (Tuesday) is expected to rebound to a 1.0% y/y clip from the prior -6.6% contraction rate. March current account figures (Thursday) should see the surplus narrow slightly to JPY 2,800.0 bln from JPY 2,916.9 bln. April bank loan data are due Thursday as well.

India April trade (Tuesday) is forecast to see the deficit widen slightly to -$14.0 bln from -$13.9 bln in March. April CPI (Wednesday) likely cooled to 4.0% y/y from 5.5%. March industrial production (Wednesday) is penciled in rebounding to a 25.0% y/y rate from -3.6% in February. That would be the fastest rate on record, though largely a function of base effects given the severe weakness a year ago. April WPI is due Friday. South Korea April unemployment (Wednesday) is set to tick down to 3.8% from 3.9%. Malaysia Q1 GDP (Tuesday) is anticipated to have contracted at a -3.0% y/y, a modest pick up versus the previous -3.4% pace of decline in Q4. This would be a fourth quarterly decline. Philippines Q1 GDP (Tuesday) is forecast at -3.5% y/y, improving from -8.3%. Still, the economy has been in contraction since Q1 2020. The central bank meets (Thursday) where no change to the 2.00% overnight borrowing rate is anticipated. The bank has been on the sidelines since late last year when it eased by 25 bps in November. Policy was eased continually in 2020, beginning with the 25 bp cut in February 2020 to 3.75%.

In Australia, a thin docket has the final release of retail sales (Monday). We expect a 1.4% gain in March sales (m/m, sa), matching the preliminary estimate following the -0.8% decline in February. There is nothing from the RBA this week. Last week, the bank left policy unchanged, but upgraded the economic outlook to expect GDP growth of 4 3/4% this year. The statement suggested that July will bring a review of the yield target and quantitative easing. Interest rates, however are set to remain at emergency levels until at least 2024. The RBA repeated that the “board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions” and “prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress toward the goals of full employment and inflation”, while placing “a high priority on a return to full employment”. There was nothing unexpected from the RBA, but the comments will add to speculation that central banks may start to take the foot off the accelerator and begin to taper purchases in the second half of this year — depending on virus developments and vaccine rollouts. The next RBA event is the release of the minutes to the April meeting, due May 18. New Zealand’s calendar is sparse, with April card spending (Tuesday) one of the few releases set for this week.


Eurozone: data releases are increasingly confirming that the recovery is underway and broadening and while central bankers continue to play down the uptick in inflation, it is pretty clear that in the central scenario, the ECB will be able to normalise the pace of bond purchases in the second quarter, after accelerating buying through the second quarter. More importantly for markets will likely be the final decision on PEPP and the question whether the program will be extended beyond the current time frame. We suspect that the ECB will kick that decision further down the line at the June meeting.

Data releases this week should confirm the recovery story and German ZEW Investor Sentiment is expected to jump to 72.0 (median 71.0) from 70.7 in the previous month. The assessment of the current situation is also likely to have improved further, but expected to have remained in negative territory at -42.6 (median 41.3).

The rest of the calendar will mainly be backward looking and we don’t expect major revisions in the final round of inflation data for April, which would leave the German HICP (Wednesday) unchanged at 2.1% y/y, the French reading (Wednesday) at 1.7%. The uptick in headline rates last month was mainly due to base effects from energy prices, which are deemed to be temporary. The Eurozone core reading remains very low, which backs the arguments of the doves at the ECB.

Eurozone industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to have rebounded from the correction in February, but the March number may not attract too much attention. Events include the European Commission’s updated set of forecasts and projections and there is supply from Italy and Spanish. Thursday is a holiday in parts of Europe trading is likely to be quieter than usual.

U.K.: the BoE last week left policy settings unchanged while revising growth projections upward and lifting its inflation forecast at the one-year horizon in its quarterly Monetary Policy Review, as had been widely anticipated. The Bank still re-committed to its accommodative policy stance. The BoE confirmed that it will slow down the pace of bond purchases, but within an overall unchanged asset purchase target, stressing that this was purely an operational decision that “should not be interpreted as a change in the stance of monetary policy.” At the same time, the BoE retained an overall sanguine view on inflation risks, forecast CPI returning to around the 2% target in the medium term. Its projections assume a CPI rate of 2.0% in Q2 2023 and 1.9% in Q2 2024.

The BoE assumed that economic activity contracted by around 1.5% in Q1 (the first official estimate of this by the Office for National Statistics is due out this week), thanks to lockdown measures. That was in fact less pessimistic than before, and with the vaccination program and the gradual re-opening of the economy, policymakers are anticipating a rapid rebound in activity through Q2. Overall GDP is still seen around 5% below pre-crisis levels in Q4 2019. The forecast for overall GDP growth this year is now 7.25% — still not sufficient to compensate for the near-10% contraction in 2020. For 2022 the BoE expects a slowdown to a still strong 5.75% and the assumption is that the UK will reach pre-crisis levels of output one quarter earlier than previously anticipated.

One focus will be on the results of local elections in Scotland, and whether pro-independence parties will win sufficient support to form a supermajority in the Scottish parliament. UK Prime Minister Johnson has already stated that there won’t be another referendum on the issue of Scottish independence. But, victory for the pro-independence parties would nevertheless legitimize their case for another vote so soon after the first vote on independence since 2014 (which was mean to be a once in a generation event), arguing that Scot’s vote to remain in the EU at the Brexit referendum in 2016 justifies this call. If, however, they fail to reach the supermajority threshold — and it’s a close call — then the issue of Scottish independence would effectively be buried for the next generation.

The calendar this week brings March and Q1 GDP data, alongside industrial production and trade figures for March (all due on Wednesday). The first estimate on Q1 GDP is expected at -1.7% q/q as a consequence of lockdown measures — measures that were only partially lifted in early March, with most of the subsequent reopening occurring in the prevailing quarter. March GDP is seen at +1.3% m/m, up from 0.4% in February. Industrial production is expected to come in at +1.0% m/m, which would match the monthly growth rate seen in the month prior. Trade data is expected to show the goods trade deficit at 14.5 bln in March, improving from the February deficit of 16.4 bln.

Switzerland: the calendar this week is quiet, bereft of either data or events of note.

Stocks & ETF Watch List

Tip: Use this section to find stocks and ETFs to add value to your portfolio by increasing the alpha (return) and decreasing beta (beta). Our list is updated weekly to help provide our readers with timely insights. Readers should do their own research before making any investment.

Solid Picks

This group of stock/ETF picks is likely to experience growth and perform well into the near future.

TickerRankCompanyPriceDays Until Next Earnings ReportDividend Yield1-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year ReturnBeta 3-Year5-Year Return
HVT1Haverty Furniture Cos$46.63911.90%19.40%69.50%56.50%199.20%0.81249.60%
MLR3Miller Industries$43.56861.70%-4.00%15.00%2.00%79.60%0.75142.50%
MOH4Molina Healthcare$267.8480– 15.80%25.90%12.90%224.50%1.01488.80%
STX7Seagate Technology$91.56782.90%16.00%48.60%35.60%90.70%1.01522.40%
LOW8Lowe’s Companies$208.4091.20%7.90%30.70%17.60%162.10%1.14202.20%
LSTR9Landstar System$178.30790.50%6.30%34.60%21.60%76.40%0.87188.60%
AJG11Arthur J. Gallagher$151.16801.30%16.40%22.70%9.60%132.00%0.88260.40%
AMED12Amedisys$260.1378– -2.80%-11.30%-24.40%294.90%0.91407.90%
HD15Home Depot$339.2582.00%8.60%28.50%15.50%98.80%1.03181.10%
A18Agilent Technologies$133.90150.60%3.50%13.40%0.30%103.70%0.96237.80%
TRNS19Transcat$49.068– 2.60%41.50%28.40%199.10%0.85359.80%

Income Stock & ETFs Picks

This list of stocks and ETFs are selected for their ability to pay dividends.

Dividend Stock Picks

TickerCompanySectorPriceDividend YieldConsecutive Div. Growth YearsEx-Div. DateDays Until Next Earnings ReportBeta 3-YearYTD Return3-Year Return
CIGEnergy Co of Minas GeraisUtilities$2.249.70%15/3/2021111.24-7.00%39.20%
CIG.CEnergy Co of Minas GeraisUtilities$2.835.70%25/3/2021– 0.923.30%73.40%
TKCTurkcell IletisimCommunication Services$4.635.10%16/18/2019940.64-11.80%-27.50%
BTGB2GoldBasic Materials$5.193.10%13/5/2021860.33-6.50%87.80%
DHTDHT HoldingsEnergy$5.8918.30%22/17/2021910.5913.50%115.20%
CBDCompanhia BrasileiraConsumer Cyclical$7.015.70%05/6/202120.9583.90%37.80%
VIVTelefonica BrasilCommunication Services$8.369.40%15/3/2021– 0.73-2.50%-21.00%
EURNEuronavEnergy$9.2718.20%12/24/2021– 0.7516.30%38.20%
AMAntero MidstreamEnergy$9.289.70%34/27/2021860.8128.30%-19.00%
LFCChina Life Insurance CoFinancial Services$10.355.00%17/6/20201070.84-6.40%-19.50%
GFIGold FieldsBasic Materials$10.483.00%13/11/2021– 0.2215.70%189.70%
ORANOrangeCommunication Services$12.795.60%012/3/2020– 0.577.80%-17.00%
KTKTCommunication Services$13.074.60%112/30/2020250.5418.70%6.00%
BPMPBP Midstream PartnersEnergy$13.6910.20%24/28/202140.8436.10%-7.80%
RCReady CapitalReal Estate$14.449.70%04/1/2021871.2219.40%42.10%
TGPTeekay LNG PartnersEnergy$15.207.60%25/4/2021100.9637.90%2.60%
AQNAlgonquin PowerUtilities$15.893.90%83/30/2021940.82-2.50%82.10%
TAKTakeda PharmaceuticalHealthcare$16.875.00%39/29/202020.6-7.30%-10.10%
ABRArbor Realty TrustReal Estate$17.817.40%83/2/2021– 1.128.10%155.50%
DOCPhysicians Realty TrustReal Estate$18.664.90%03/31/2021870.857.60%44.50%
SBSWSibanye StillwaterBasic Materials$19.375.10%03/18/2021101.1627.60%555.80%
PMTPennyMac MortgageReal Estate$19.829.50%04/14/2021871.1115.30%43.80%
KREFKKR Real Estate FinanceReal Estate$21.078.20%03/30/2021840.8420.30%39.20%
TSLXSixth Street SpecialtyFinancial Services$22.007.50%15/27/2021850.6814.60%67.50%
CTRECareTrust REITReal Estate$23.094.60%63/30/2021871.175.30%89.00%
EPDEnterprise Prods PartnersEnergy$23.257.70%10+4/29/2021860.9323.70%10.10%
HRBH&R BlockConsumer Cyclical$23.464.40%53/15/2021361.0149.80%-1.80%
STWDStarwood Property TrustReal Estate$25.187.60%03/30/2021861.0633.00%57.90%
ORIOld Republic IntlFinancial Services$26.083.40%10+3/8/2021731.0640.90%59.80%
SCUSculptor CapitalFinancial Services$26.2711.00%02/24/2021871.1190.90%61.70%
VIRTVirtu FinancialFinancial Services$28.133.40%05/28/2021880.0912.70%-6.40%
HCSGHealthcare Services GroupHealthcare$30.162.80%10+5/20/2021710.958.10%-12.90%
GTYGetty RealtyReal Estate$31.624.90%86/23/2021791.1716.40%42.60%
IPGInterpublic Gr of CosCommunication Services$33.473.20%82/26/2021861.1543.80%62.30%
MGPMGM Growth PropertiesReal Estate$35.245.60%43/30/2021851.1514.30%52.70%
PSXPPhillips 66 PartnersEnergy$35.409.90%74/29/2021810.9541.80%-6.60%
DKLDelek Logistics PartnersEnergy$39.209.40%75/7/2021851.228.40%97.30%
IRMIron MountainReal Estate$41.306.00%10+6/14/2021870.8242.50%50.80%
CQPCheniere Energy PartnersEnergy$41.316.40%45/5/2021870.6721.00%60.40%
SBSISouthside BancsharesFinancial Services$42.273.10%10+5/19/2021790.9537.50%43.50%
BCEBCECommunication Services$48.715.80%10+6/14/2021870.7115.60%40.10%
TRTNTriton InternationalIndustrials$52.924.30%46/9/2021741.0510.10%82.60%
MCMoelis & CoFinancial Services$53.684.10%05/7/2021861.0121.50%29.70%
NUSNu Skin EnterprisesConsumer Defensive$58.952.60%10+5/27/2021860.748.70%-15.00%
GISGeneral MillsConsumer Defensive$63.053.20%14/8/2021580.399.10%66.70%
FAFFirst American FinancialFinancial Services$66.512.80%10+3/5/2021730.9230.00%39.00%
KKelloggConsumer Defensive$66.953.50%10+5/28/2021800.438.70%23.40%
RGRSturm Ruger & CoIndustrials$70.374.90%15/14/2021860.369.20%37.10%
TDToronto-Dominion BankFinancial Services$70.943.60%10+4/8/2021170.9528.30%42.50%
NHINational Health InvestorsReal Estate$71.106.20%10+3/30/2021– 1.224.30%22.60%
MRKMerck & CoHealthcare$78.413.30%10+3/12/2021810.67-3.30%49.30%
SAFTSafety Insurance GroupFinancial Services$85.994.20%45/28/2021860.811.60%19.60%
BMOBank of MontrealFinancial Services$97.093.60%94/30/2021161.0230.30%46.00%
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaFinancial Services$99.103.50%94/21/2021160.8723.20%47.30%
PRKPark NationalFinancial Services$128.803.20%35/20/2021770.923.90%31.40%
SJMJM SmuckerConsumer Defensive$136.602.60%10+5/13/2021240.3619.10%32.90%
TMToyota MotorConsumer Cyclical$153.652.80%19/29/202010.62-0.60%24.10%

Dividend Growth Stocks

TickerCompanySectorPriceDividend YieldConsecutive Div. Growth YearsEx-Div. DateDays Until Next Earnings ReportBeta 3-YearYTD Return3-Year Return
EQUEYEquatorial EnergiaUtilities$4.932.80%15/14/2021– 0.449.20%30.30%
FEEXFFerrexpoBasic Materials$6.403.10%26/17/2021– -0.0383.70%146.60%
CIHHFChina Merchants BankFinancial Services$8.352.00%17/2/20201090.342.50%110.10%
JBSAYJBSConsumer Defensive$11.873.20%14/29/20213133.60%151.40%
CWBCCommunity West BancsharesFinancial Services$12.002.30%05/7/2021740.2733.80%9.00%
BOCHBank of Commerce HldgsFinancial Services$13.241.80%33/29/2021670.9934.40%23.30%
CMCLCaledonia Mining CorpBasic Materials$14.913.20%14/15/202110.63-4.60%86.30%
QNTOQuaint Oak BancorpFinancial Services$18.002.40%10+4/23/2021800.1723.50%46.80%
SBFGSB Financial GroupFinancial Services$18.192.40%75/13/2021770.560.10%2.20%
HBNCHorizon BancorpFinancial Services$18.372.80%53/31/2021861.2417.50%2.30%
FXNCFirst NationalFinancial Services$18.412.60%32/25/2021860.249.70%2.20%
CVCYCentral Valley CommunityFinancial Services$19.402.50%35/6/2021791.2432.00%2.10%
AUTLYAustalIndustrials$19.653.40%33/16/2021– 0.15-4.70%57.40%
HWBKHawthorn BancsharesFinancial Services$22.112.70%96/14/2021801.141.50%23.10%
CIVBCivista BancsharesFinancial Services$23.152.10%94/19/2021741.3233.60%7.70%
MPBMid Penn BancorpFinancial Services$27.153.00%25/7/2021731.3126.10%-16.70%
VDAHYVinda Intl HldgsConsumer Defensive$28.022.20%45/13/2021– 0.050.00%58.40%
SATLFZozoConsumer Cyclical$32.731.90%19/29/2021– 0.3332.90%3.80%
TCFCCommunity FinancialFinancial Services$35.121.70%04/9/2021770.833.80%1.60%
MALRYMineral ResourcesBasic Materials$37.473.60%12/19/2021– -0.0230.50%184.80%
GABCGerman American BancorpFinancial Services$42.442.00%85/7/2021770.9429.60%28.40%
CIHKYChina Merchants BankFinancial Services$43.172.00%47/1/20201090.8138.10%126.70%
NRIMNorthrim BanCorpFinancial Services$43.903.40%10+3/10/2021771.2530.40%32.60%
FBNCFirst BancorpFinancial Services$45.451.80%33/30/2021731.0735.00%23.60%
MTRAFMetroConsumer Defensive$47.371.70%35/19/2021– 0.166.60%55.80%
CACCamden NationalFinancial Services$47.613.00%44/14/2021781.0235.20%18.80%
MRU.TOMetroConsumer Defensive$57.521.70%10+5/19/2021930.31.70%48.30%
CMCSAComcastCommunication Services$58.111.70%14/6/2021800.911.90%91.00%
CHBHCroghan BancsharesFinancial Services$60.013.50%74/8/2021– 0.2317.70%27.20%
MDCM.D.C. HoldingsConsumer Cyclical$62.112.60%45/11/2021781.3438.90%153.60%
LKFNLakeland FinancialFinancial Services$64.862.10%74/22/2021770.9522.30%45.10%
PFBCPreferred BankFinancial Services$68.182.20%04/6/2021711.236.70%15.90%
AEMAgnico Eagle MinesBasic Materials$69.172.00%55/28/2021860.24-1.30%68.40%
XNGSYENN Energy HoldingsUtilities$71.481.70%45/12/2021– 0.4521.40%109.70%
RILYB. Riley FinancialFinancial Services$75.322.70%25/14/2021801.1381.00%350.30%
IBTXIndependent Bank GrFinancial Services$77.351.70%75/5/2021781.3524.80%9.60%
WTFCWintrust FinancialFinancial Services$78.431.60%75/5/2021711.3229.50%-9.70%
AEM.TOAgnico Eagle MinesBasic Materials$83.932.10%55/31/2021860.16-5.90%57.00%
BAHBooz Allen HamiltonIndustrials$84.111.80%82/11/2021110.71-3.10%120.00%
DKSDick’s Sporting GoodsConsumer Cyclical$89.661.60%63/18/2021161.0960.20%223.00%
HLANHeartland BancorpFinancial Services$95.002.60%86/24/2021770.2615.20%16.10%
AGMFederal AgriculturalFinancial Services$102.293.40%93/15/2021910.9739.00%30.00%
CBOECboe Global MarketsFinancial Services$108.101.60%10+2/25/2021810.6716.60%9.10%
EHMEFgoeasyFinancial Services$124.571.70%63/25/2021– 0.5764.60%354.00%
AFGAmerican Financial GroupFinancial Services$128.701.60%10+4/14/2021851.3248.30%34.00%
ALLAllstateFinancial Services$132.262.50%10+3/3/2021850.9421.20%48.20%
NXSTNexstar Media GroupCommunication Services$147.511.90%75/13/2021861.5235.90%147.50%
GSY.TOgoeasyFinancial Services$151.151.80%63/25/202111.3157.20%321.60%
TROWT. Rowe Price GrFinancial Services$189.232.30%10+3/15/2021861.2125.80%81.30%
HIIHuntington Ingalls IndusIndustrials$216.992.10%85/27/2021870.8528.10%6.30%
NOCNorthrop GrummanIndustrials$370.631.60%10+2/26/2021800.7522.20%22.80%

ETFs (Updated Monthly)

TickerCompanyCategory GroupDividend YieldBeta 3-YearExpense Ratio3-Year Return
DNLWisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Quality Dividend Growth FundInternational Equity1.80%0.850.58%39.10%
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETFU.S. Equity2.10%0.910.35%40.10%
SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETFU.S. Equity1.50%0.980.15%46.10%
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF SharesU.S. Equity1.90%0.90.06%44.60%

Dogs of the Dow

This list of DOW stocks based on H. G. Schneider’s Article in the Journal of Finance in 1951 that used price-earnings ratio. The general idea is that blue-chip companies that pay a dividend are more likely to withstand an economic downturn. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerCompanySectorDividend Yield3-Year ReturnBeta 3-YearDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
DOWDowBasic Materials4.70%– 1.357566
KOCoca-ColaConsumer Defensive3.40%22.80%0.719340
VZVerizon CommunicationsCommunication Services4.50%28.30%0.487758
WBAWalgreens Boots AllianceHealthcare3.90%-24.90%0.828664
XOMExxon MobilEnergy6.40%-18.20%1.046970

Economic Data Calendar


Releases in the second week of May will be back-loaded toward a Friday retail sales report, where we expect a slowing in the sales updraft, alongside a lean March business inventory rise that was restrained by sales strength. We expect an April industrial production rise as we further reverse the February weather-hit. The April inflation reports should reveal moderate CPI and PPI gains thanks to a plateau in energy prices, though with climbing y/y metrics, alongside firm trade price gains after particularly large increases through Q1.

Week of May 10

The U.S. jobs report revealed that the slightly smaller than expected 0.5% April climb in hours-worked almost entirely reflected a rebound in the workweek back to it’s 22-year high of 35.0 seen in January, and previously in 2000, from 34.9 in March and 34.6 in February. The payroll figure rose only 266k, and with an even smaller 218k private payroll rise that was held back by a -16k drop for goods sector employment. Those that work are working longer hours with hefty pay increases, while mostly minimum wage workers in urban areas remain unemployed or outside of the labor market, leaving restrained payroll gains overall.

There remains a powerful dichotomy in the U.S. economy. Most businesses have seen surging demand since the end of last year’s spring lockdowns to levels well above expectations before the pandemic, leaving widespread capacity constraints, soaring prices, and labor shortages. In contrast, urban areas that have pursued disruptive virus control strategies, as well as industries dependent upon crowds, such as theme parks, theaters, and cruise lines, have been sharply crushed. Urban riots have been a big focus of those that live outside of urban areas, and this has capped the flow of suburbanites into and out of cities beyond the effect of lockdowns.

Policymakers have framed current macro problems in the context of a Keynesian aggregate demand shortfall, and policy efforts are targeted at boosting aggregate demand. Yet, the U.S. is actually experiencing a powerful overshoot of aggregate demand, as the preferred national consumption basket shifts away from specific regions and activities, leaving upward pressure on prices and widespread labor shortages despite depressed activities in some areas.

The signal from the April jobs report really doesn’t reflect just one set of monthly data, as the report exacerbates patterns evident since the pandemic began. Note that in April of 2020, average hourly earnings soared 4.6%, as a large pool of minimum wage workers were pushed out of the labor force. Today’s April average hourly earning figure sits 0.3% above the elevated level from April of last year. In short, this massive upward shift in average hourly earnings has been “permanent,” and wages are now climbing from here.

Though a weak payrolls figure may prompt some FOMC members to be more committed to a policy of continued aggressive policy easing, others may recognize that “easy money” likely isn’t an effective way to make cities more inviting to outsiders, or to move jobless urbanites to higher growth areas. Accommodative monetary policy may disproportionately raise prices rather than reduce urban joblessness, leaving little net benefit beyond the current massive asset price boom that may be exacerbating the U.S. economic dichotomy.

CPI/Core: 0.2%/0.2%

We expect April gains of 0.2% for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.6% gain for the headline and 0.3% for the core in March. CPI gasoline prices look poised to ease -1.7% in April. As-expected April figures would result in a 3.5% headline y/y increase, following a 2.6% pace in March. Core prices should show a 2.3% y/y rise, up from 1.6% y/y in March. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures are being lifted by big commodity and trade price gains. Disruptions from the Texas freeze in February and Suez canal closure in March have contributed to supply bottlenecks. We expect headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges to climb sharply into Q2 due to easy comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.9% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 3.1% and 2.5%. The Fed will continue to interpret the Q2 inflation spike as transitory, though it’s unclear if upward commodity price pressure will abate anytime soon.

PPI/Core: 0.2%/0.2%

We expect a 0.2% April PPI headline rise with a 0.2% core price gain, following respective gains of 1.0% and 0.7% in March, and a huge 1.3% and 1.2% in January. As expected readings would result in a rise for the y/y headline PPI metric to 5.7% from 4.2% in March. We expect a 3.7% y/y rate for the core, up from 3.1% in March. The y/y headline PPI reading should climb to a peak in the 5.7% area in April due to hard comparisons, while the core y/y rate rises to a peak near 3.8% around May. The massive PPI climb through Q1 sharply exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, with bigger boosts from surging commodity and trade prices, alongside ongoing supply constraints that will lift the inflation indexes throughout 2021.

Initial Jobless Claims: 490k

Initial jobless claims are expected to fall to 490k, following last week’s drop to 498k from 590k. Initial claims have turned sharply lower over the past three weeks, following a restrained drop-back through early April from the holiday peak. Claims are expected to average 480k in May, after averages of 580k in April, 724k in March, and 800k in February. The 566k April BLS survey week reading followed prior survey week figures of 765k in March, 847k in February and 886k in January. We assume a 700k May payroll rise after the surprisingly lean 266k April gain.

Continuing claims rose by 37k to 3,690k in the week of April 24, following a downwardly revised 3,653k figure. We expect continuing claims to fall -50k to the 3,640k area for the week ending on May 1. The downtrend in the continuing claims data has moderated over the past two weeks, just as the drop in initial claims has picked up steam. We saw a continuing claims drop of -179k between the March and April BLS survey weeks. We saw larger prior drops of -628k in March, -409k in February, -555k in January, and -705k in December.

Retail/Ex-Auto Sales: 0.5%/0.2%

We expect a 0.5% April retail sales headline with a 0.2% ex-auto figure, following huge respective March pops of 9.8% and 8.4% that were lifted by stimulus checks, as well as a reversal of February weakness attributable to the Texas freeze and bad weather across the midwest and east coast. We expect a -1.7% dip for the CPI gasoline index that should weigh on service station sales. Unit vehicle sales surged to a 16-year high of 18.5 mln, after another big jump to 18.0 mln in March. We expect continued strength in non-store sales, and an extension of the rebound for sales of clothing, furniture, electronics, and appliances as we continue to reverse last year’s pandemic hit. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at an 11.0% rate in Q2, after rates of 10.7% in Q1 and 2.3% in Q4.

Import/Export Price Index: 0.6%/0.6%

Import prices are estimated to rise 0.6% in April, with the same 0.6% export price rise, after March gains of 1.2% for imports and 2.1% for exports. Ex-petroleum import prices are expected to grow 0.6%, while ex-agriculture export prices grow 0.6%. We expect a residual boost from the Suez canal closure. Oil prices rose sharply through the turn of the year, with an extra-updraft in February from the Texas freeze that idled some production, but we’ve seen a moderation in energy prices since then. The ongoing rebound in global production since the middle of 2020 has been associated with bottlenecks and shortages in many industries that have raised prices, and a downtrend in the value of the dollar has aggravated commodity price gains. The markets have focused on upside inflation surprises in 2021.

Industrial Production: 1.0%

Industrial production is projected to rise 1.0% in April, after the 1.4% March headline increase. We saw March gains of 2.7% for manufacturing, and 5.7% for mining, but an -11.4% drop for utilities. In April, we expect a 0.3% manufacturing increase and a 0.5% increase for mining. We expect a 6.0% utility surge. We expect the vehicle assembly rate to rise to a still-depressed 9.5 mln in April from 9.3 mln in March, as assemblies are being disrupted by semiconductor shortages. We saw a 0.1 mln trough pace in April, versus a 3.7 mln prior trough in January of 2009 that marked the start of the auto bankruptcies. Mining output should continue to rise, alongside the uptrend in the Baker-Hughes rig count. Capacity utilization should rise to 75.1% from 74.4% in March. Industrial production expanded at a 2.5% clip in Q1, and we expect faster growth rates of 9.7% in Q2 and 10.2% in Q3.

Business Inventories: 0.3%

Business inventories are estimated to rise 0.3% in March after a 0.6% February increase. Our forecast incorporates the 0.7% rise for factory inventories and 1.3% wholesale increase, alongside a -1.4% retail drop as seen in the advance release. Sales should rise 5.4% in March, after a -1.6% (was -1.9%) drop in February. As-expected readings would result in the I/S ratio falling to an all-time low of 1.23 from 1.30 in February and a 9-year low of 1.27 in January, versus a prior all-time low of 1.24 in March of 2011 and an all-time high of 1.68 in April. We saw an -$85.5 bln liquidation rate in Q1 that subtracted a whopping -$147.5 bln from Q1 GDP growth. A $62.1 bln accumulation rate in Q4 of 2020 capped a prior 4-quarter stretch of liquidation through Q3. Inventories were already unwinding pre-COVID-19 as earlier tariff front running reversed course before the big Q2 hit, leaving room for a protracted inventory rebound through the rest of 2021.

Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary: 90.0

We expect the preliminary May Michigan sentiment report to reveal an increase to yet another cycle-high of 90.0 from 88.3 in April and 84.9 in March, versus a 6-month low of 76.8 in February. We expect current conditions to rise to a new cycle-high of 97.5 from a 1-year high of 97.2 in March and a 4-month low of 86.2 in February. Expectations in May should improve to a cycle-high of 85.2, after the March rise to a 1-year high of 82.7 from a 3-month low of 70.7 in February. The 1-year inflation gauge should sustain the April climb to a 9-year high of 3.4% from 3.1%, versus a prior 9-year high of 3.3% in February that was last seen in July of 2014. The 5-10 year inflation rate should tick up to a 7-year high of 2.8% in May that was also seen in March, and previously in July of 2015, from 2.7% in April. All the confidence measures are climbing alongside vaccine distributions, stimulus deposits, and the easing of coronavirus restrictions.

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