Report (Premium Edition) 04-19-2021

Introduction (Quick Overview)

The markets will be left to their own devices as this week kicks off as there are no new catalysts to provide direction. While optimism on the recovery will continue to underpin Wall Street, the fresh highs on the Dow and S&P at 34,200 and the S&P 500 just shy of the 4200 level may keep buyers sidelined for now. Treasuries held recent gains with the 10-year yield at 1.575%, the bond at 2.260%, and the 2-year at 0.165%, and could continue to consolidate around those levels near term.

China Q1 GDP posted a record 18.3% rate of growth on the heels of the blowout U.S. jobs and retail sales data, adding to the optimism over the global recovery. That outlook has seen Wall Street and the DAX climb to record highs, along with the World MSCI.

Central bank commitment to accommodation and hefty fiscal stimulus remains big supports to the recovery, and to the rally in the financial markets. Headwinds from the resurgent infections in some regions/countries, along with difficulties in vaccine rollouts, are being overshadowed, though will continue to be closely monitored. Inflation fears have been tempered as well. The ECB meeting will vie with earnings for the markets’ attention this week. Inflation data will highlight around many parts of the world and acceleration is generally expected.

Earnings will dominate the news flow today amid a paucity of data and Fedspeak. Today’s announcements include Coke, United Airlines, American Airlines, J&J, P&G, Netflix, Dow, Abbott Labs, American Express, Kimberly-Clark.

There is no data today, but the week will see the release of new and existing home sales and jobless claims. Fedspeak goes into hibernation ahead of the April 27-28 FOMC. Supply is relatively thin with just the 20-year and 5-year TIPS sales, though the corporate calendar is growing with banks coming to market after the Fed let SLR relief measure expire.

Key Drivers for the Week of April 19

TIP – This is a 1-minute brief bullet-point summary. It is a tool that gives investors and financial a fast and simple list of what to watch for and talking points for the week.

• Optimism rising as global growth picks up steam in Q2, led by U.S. and China
• Inflationary pressures accelerating, as CBs foretold, seen as transitory
• Virus infections, new strains, difficulties in vaccine rollouts reman headwinds
• ECB meeting in focus, watch for signals on PEPP program 
• Earnings reports dominate U.S. calendar; housing, durables data on tap
• Bank of Canada on hold, but could show concerns over strong housing market
• Bank Indonesia policy seen steady; Japan trade, tertiary index, national CPI due
• RBA minutes may reveal some worry over side effects from low rate policy
• Eurozone manufacturing, services PMI preliminary confidence; German PPI
• UK data includes employment, CPI, retail sales, preliminary PMI surveys

Key Market Trends

Tip: Use this as a quick guide on the short-term direction of key markets. I once had a client that would call me nearly every day asking the direction of the markets. This is a quick cheat sheet to know the trend and help understand what is happening with the markets.

S&P 500 Sectors

Tip: Use this section to know the performance of various sectors, weight portfolios, or look for trades. Modern portfolio theory stresses the importance of diversification, but recently several sectors like technology have out-performed others like utilities. This is also a way to narrow the sectors to find investment opportunities.

REIT Alert: Due to Covid-19, there is a large percentage of people that have not paid rent or mortgages. We are very worried about the effect it could have on real estate investment trusts’ (REITS) value. Even though the sectors may trending bullish, we believe that REITs could have a significant drop in value.

Week Ahead: Earnings Week

NORTH AMERICA

Recent weeks have seen a bonanza of upbeat U.S. economic data, reflecting very strong positive impacts from stimulus checks, vaccines, reopenings, pent-up demand, and the reversal from harsh weather. Key data on employment, sales, manufacturing, and inflation far outpaced median estimates and supported projections for very strong growth this quarter and this year. That’s helped Wall Street to more record highs, leaving the Dow just over 34,200, the S&P 500 approaching 4200, with the NASDAQ holding over 14,000 again, not seen since February.

We continue to watch the US dollar lose value (-7.47%) as the S&P 500 (+36.15%) increases. Looking a the chart there seemed to be a change around July 2020 which we think was the stabilization of Covid-19, but it could also be triggered by the first stimulus bill. It is not a true inverse correlation but should send alarm bells to US investors. We have seen some analysts predict the trend to continue and even go into the low 80s. This of course could cause huge issues for all markets.

A thin data docket awaits this week, with home sales reports highlighting. A 7.1% March rebound for new home sales to an 830k pace is anticipated following the weather-depressed 775k rate in February. Meanwhile, existing-home sales are seen falling to 6.100 mln in March from 6.220 mln in February. Why are new and home sales projected to move in different directions during March? Existing sales are tracked at closing, so we expect a lagged hit from the bad weather in February. Initial jobless claims will be important too as the survey coincides with the BLS survey week. A bounce to 650k is anticipated following the -193k plunge to 576k in the prior week, a post-pandemic low. The markets will be interested to see if there is further improvement in the labor market, especially after the 916k pop in March nonfarm payrolls.

The earnings calendar is busy this week: Monday has Coca-Cola, IBM, Prologis, M&T Bank, United Airlines, and Crown Holdings. Tuesday brings J&J, P&G, Netflix, Abbott Labs, Philip Morris, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surgical, CSX, Edwards Lifesciences, Interactive Brokers, Fifth Third, Northern Trust, Teradyne, KeyCorp, Dover Corp, Omnicom, and Grifols. Wednesday has Verizon, NextEra Energy, Lam Research, Crown Castle, Canadian Pacific Railway, Las Vegas Sands, Ericsson, Chipotle, Kinder Morgan, Discovery Financial, Nasdaq, Rogers Communications, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Graco, and Globe Life. Thursday has Intel, AT&T, Danaher, SAP, Union Pacific, Snap, HCA Healthcare, Blackstone Group, Freeport-McMoran, Dow, American Electric Power, Biogen, Southwest Airlines, D.R. Horton, Old Dominion, SVB Financial, Nucor, VeriSign, Tractor Supply, FirstEnergy, KB Financial, Seagate, Celanese, Quest Diagnostics, Boston Beer, American Airlines, and Pentair. Honeywell, American Express, Kimberly-Clark, Schlumberger, and Regions Financial are due Friday.

There is not any Fedspeak this week thanks to the usual blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting on April 27-28. That’s in contrast to the voluminous verbiage seen in recent weeks with all supporting the ultra accommodative stance.

In Canada, the BoC’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report (both due Wednesday) take center stage this week. No change in the current ultra-accommodative policy setting is widely expected. However, there is a good chance they express some further concern over the strength in the housing market. Also, expect the market to at least entertain the possibility that policymakers might begin the process of talking about talking about a taper. But with the recovery still uneven and virus cases back on the upswing amid a choppy vaccine rollout, we doubt bank officials will do anything more than to begin setting the stage for an eventual discussion of when they think they might begin to taper asset purchases. While the recovery is progressing, central banks in general remain risk averse to spooking the market, driving rates higher and impinging on the recovery. Is this the right move?

Expect continued debate in the market, especially as vaccinations compete with rising infections and fresh lockdowns as new variants spread, challenging hopes for a return to normal as soon as this summer. But given the massive amount of stimulus and the pent up desire of the public to return to normal, the risk to current growth and inflation forecasts for 2021 remains to the upside. CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in March (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% gain in February. The annual growth rates is projected to soar to 2.1% from 1.1% as base effects impact (CPI in March 2020 was sharply lower). Housing starts (Monday) are seen edging up to 250.0k in March from 245.9k in February.

ASIA

Enthusiasm over the recovery is spreading. However, attention will remain glued to pandemic developments, as cases in many parts of the world are on the rise, particularly in continental Europe. Prospects for stellar growth in the U.S. and China however, the globe’s two largest economies, should keep a bid in equity markets, despite those nation’s markets being at or near record highs, while sovereign yields should stabilize following last week’s huge bond market rally. This week’s Asian calendar is relatively light, though it will feature trade and national CPI reports out of Japan. China’s calendar is empty. Elsewhere, price, trade and unemployment data are slated for release. For central banks, Bank Indonesia meets, with no change to its 3.50% 7-day reverse-repo rate expected.

In Japan, the March trade report is due (Monday) with the surplus expected to widen to JPY 550.0 bln from JPY 215.9 previously. Revised February industrial production is due Monday as well. The February tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is forecast rebounding 0.7% from -1.7% in January. March national CPI (Friday) is seen warming to 0.2% y/y from -0.4% overall, and would be the first increase since August. The core rate should come in at -0.2% y/y from -0.4% on a core basis.

Taiwan March export orders (Tuesday) will likely rise 35.0% y/y from 48.5% previously. March unemployment (Thursday) should remain steady at 3.7%. March industrial production (Friday) is penciled in at an 8.0% y/y pace from 3.0% in February. South Korea’s March PPI is due Wednesday.

Hong Kong March unemployment (Thursday) should dip to 7.1% from the 7.2% in February that was the highest since 2004. March CPI (Friday) is expected to rise to 0.9% y/y from 0.3%. Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia meets (Tuesday) with no change to its 3.50% 7-day reverse-repo rate expected. Thailand March exports (Thursday) should contract at a -1.5% y/y pace from -2.6% previously. Malaysia March CPI (Friday) is seen climbing to a 1.5% y/y pace from 0.1%. Singapore March CPI (Friday) should rise to 1.2% y/y from 0.7%.

In Australia, attention will be on the minutes to the RBA’s April meeting, which are due Tuesday. At the April meeting, the RBA highlighted that it is monitoring trends in the housing market, adding to the evidence that central banks are starting to worry about the side effects of ultra-accommodative policy settings. The bank held rates steady, matching widespread expectations. The preliminary estimate for March retail sales is due Wednesday. Sales fell -0.8% m/m in February. New Zealand’s calendar will focus on the CPI (Wednesday), with the report expected to show a 0.9% gain (q/q, sa) in Q1 after the 0.5% rise in Q4. The CPI is projected at a 1.6% y/y pace from 1.4% y/y in Q4.

EUROPE

Eurozone: the ECB meeting will take centre stage this week, with markets likely to focus on any signals on the PEPP program. The ECB at the last meeting announced a stepped up purchase schedule but only for the next months, while the overall ceiling for purchases and the end date was left unchanged. Frontloading purchases, without lifting the overall ceiling for purchases under PEPP means monthly volumes will have to be scaled back later in the year. And at the moment the program is still set to be phased out in March 2022. However, there was some push back against Knot’s suggestion that he still expects this to happen and the question is whether the dovish comments were designed to highlight ongoing uncertainty, or whether that was already a signal that the ECB will push out the end date of the program once again.

On balance we don’t expect that to happen — at least not just yet – although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lagarde stressed that this remains a possibility if recovery hopes for the second half of the year are disappointed. Lagarde will likely also step up demands for an acceleration in the payout of the EU’s recovery fund, which still hasn’t cleared all hurdles yet and is also still awaiting clearance by Germany’s constitutional court.

The data calendar is not overly busy, but includes preliminary PMI readings for April at the end of the week, which we expect to show a drop in confidence readings against the background of renewed restrictions and rising virus case numbers in major Eurozone countries. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop back to 62.1 (median 62.0) from 62.4, the services to 49.5 (49.1) from 49.6, which should leave the composite at 53.0 (median 52.9) versus 53.2 in the previous month. Uncertainty remains high and much will depend on whether and to what extend most recent developments on the virus front overshadow vaccine progress. The same holds also of course for the preliminary consumer confidence reading (Thursday) — which we expect to have eased slightly to -11.0 (median -10.8) from -10.8 in March.

German PPI inflation for March is likely to have jumped sharply higher on base effects from energy prices, but also a reflection of supply chain pressures against the background of rebounding global demand. We look for a rise to 3.1% y/y, which is already slightly below consensus expectations for a jump to 3.2%. Events include heavy supply from Germany, which auctions 2-year Schatz notes on Tuesday and 10-year Bunds Wednesday. Spain and France issue bonds Thursday and the ESM is selling bills next week.

U.K.: the issue of Scottish independence has reared up into the UK’s local elections in early May, presenting a countervailing downbeat narrative to the positive picture being painted by the UK’s successful Covid vaccine rollout and associated societal reopening. Polls are pointing to pro-independence parties achieving a supermajority in Scotland’s parliament. This would greatly increase the pressure on UK PM Johnson to permit another independence referendum in Scotland, although he would almost certainly resist.

The calendar this week brings a batch of top-tier data. Monthly employment data is up (Tuesday), along with March inflation figures (Wednesday), where headline CPI is expected to rise to a still-benign 0.7% y/y rate after dipping to just 0.4% y/y in the month prior, and March retail sales, consumer confidence and the preliminary April PMI surveys (all due Friday). The composite PMI is expected to rise to 58.1, which would mark a third consecutive month of increasing activity and the best reading since last August.

Switzerland: the Swiss data calendar is quiet this week.

Stocks & ETF Watch List

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Solid Picks

This group of stock/ETF picks is likely to experience growth and perform well into the near future. The “Fair Value” is a calculation using a discount cash flow analysis to determine the Intrinsic Value. The rank score of a stock, where a score of 1 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key return metrics. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

Income Stock & ETFs Picks

This list of stocks and ETFs are selected for their ability to pay dividends. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

Dividend Stock Picks

Dividend Growth Stocks

ETFs

Dogs of the Dow

This list of DOW stocks based on H. G. Schneider’s Article in the Journal of Finance in 1951 that used price-earnings ratio. The general idea is that blue-chip companies that pay a dividend are more likely to withstand an economic downturn. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

Economic Data Calendar

We have a light week for economic reports, dominated by housing reports near week’s end. We expect a March dip for existing home sales but an increase for new home sales. Existing home sales are tracked at closings, so we should see a continued headwind from bad weather for that metric. Both measures remained restrained by remarkably lean inventories, as builders can’t keep up with demand, and we expect new all-time highs for both median price measures. We also expect a solid March rise for leading indicators with broad-based gains.

Week of April 19

Thursday’s robust March retail sales data, with upward prior revisions, locked in a solid quarter for consumer spending and final sales growth in Q1. The strong domestic sales trajectory should extend through Q2. We now expect growth in real consumption spending of 9.4% in Q1 and 8.5% in Q2, alongside 11%-13% growth for fixed investment over the period, and an assumed flat trajectory for real government purchases.

Our estimates show a more restrained GDP path however, with growth of 5.6% in Q1 and 8.5% in Q2. GDP is a measure of production rather than sales, and U.S. output won’t be able to keep up with stimulus-driven demand in the first half of 2021. Hours-worked grew at only a 3.1% pace in Q1, before an assumed 8.0% Q2 surge, as the workweek fluctuates just below its 21-year high of 35.0 seen in January. We have a skewing of hours-worked growth to Q2 from Q1 due to the February weather-hit. We saw industrial production growth of just 2.5% in Q1, before a likely Q2 growth pop to the 17.0% area, again with a big Q1-Q2 weather-gyration around a 9.7% average pace for the booming industrial sector.

The housing boom is constrained by the availability of building materials and the speed of the permit process, while the auto sector and other peripheral electronics industries are plagued by semiconductor shortages. The petrol-chemical complex remains impacted by the permit moratorium, delayed pipeline construction, and lingering effects of the Texas freeze.

Booming U.S. demand will be partly met by surging imports and falling inventories, and the hit will be pushed toward the later for now by the backlog of ships at Long Beach and other major ports. Trade prices have soared with booming demand and industry bottlenecks. As it stands, we expect inventories to subtract a hefty -$99 bln from Q1 GDP with a $37 bln inventory liquidation, before a $67 bln inventory bounce-back in Q2. We expect net exports to subtract -$37 bln in Q1 and -$51 bln in Q2. The U.S. is effectively “exporting” a big chunk of the stimulus-led demand surge, as the rebound in most of the world’s economy is lagging the U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims: 650k

Initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 650k, following last week’s drop to 576k from 769k. Initial claims have posted only a gradual pull-back from the holiday peak likely due to elevated job churn as the economy transitions to its post-pandemic configuration. Claims are expected to average 661k in April, after a 724k average in March, 800k in February, and 860k in January. The 765k March BLS survey week reading followed prior survey week figures of 847k in February and 886k in January. We assume an 850k April payroll rise after the 916k March surge.

Continuing claims rose by 4k to 3,731k in the week of April 3, following a downwardly revised 3,727k figure. We expect continuing claims to fall -179k to the 3,550k area for the week ending on April 10. We expect continuing claims to extend their downtrend through Q2. We expect a continuing claims drop of -441k between the March and April BLS survey weeks. We saw prior drops of -628k in March, -409k in February, -555k in January, and -705k in December.

Existing Home Sales: 6.100 mln

We expect existing home sales to fall to 6.100 mln in March from 6.220 mln in February, versus a 14-year high of 6.860 mln in October. These sales are tracked at closing, so we expect a lagged hit from bad weather in February. Pending home sales fell -10.6% in February, as this measure continues to unwind the all-time high in August. The MBA purchase index rose by a restrained 3.6% in March, after a -15.4% plunge in February, but gains of 4.7% in January, 2.6% in December, and 2.7% in November. The two measures are consistent with a still-elevated sales pace into 2021. Sales are supply-constrained, as the months’ supply of homes posted a 5-month string of new all-time lows through January, before a weather-induced February uptick. The median sales price will likely rise to the $318,000 area from the $313,000 all-time high also seen last October. We expect a slowing in the y/y median price gain to a still firm 13.3% from 15.8% in February. In Q4, we saw an average sales pace of 6.657 mln, after a 6.103 mln rate in Q3, and we expect a strong 6.327 mln pace in Q1.

Leading Indicators: 1.1%

The leading economic index likely bounced 1.1% in March led by claims and ISM rebounds after February’s massive weather-hit that left a restrained 0.2% headline rise. We saw prior gains of 0.5% in January, 0.4% in December, and 0.9% in November. We continue to reverse the huge 2020 pandemic drops of -6.3% in April and -7.5% in March. We expect a continued uptrend across most components.

New Home Sales: 830k

We expect a 7.1% March rebound for new home sales to an 830k pace, following a weather-depressed 775k in February and a 948k clip in January. We’ve likely seen a 10-month stretch of sales through March that are the highest rates since a 1,016k reading in September of 2006. We expect a median sales price rise to a new all-time high of $357,000 from $349,400 in February, versus a prior peak of $356,600 in December, leaving a y/y increase of 8.8%. We expect an 851k Q1 pace for new home sales, after a 914k rate in Q4. We’re seeing a powerful surge in new home construction into 2021. We’ve also seen a de-linking of the housing cycle from the school year, and a likely boost in activity through the holidays due to reduced seasonal disruptions with virus restrictions. The new construction data have notably lagged sales, which are inventory-restrained. We expect a steady climb in starts, construction, and completions through mid-2021 in the face of unprecedented home demand.

Complete List of Events