Report (Premium Edition) 04-12-2021

Introduction (Quick Overview)

Inflation concerns and worries over rising interest rates are likely to be on the rise again this week, even as the FOMC stresses its uber accommodative stance and plays down the threat from cheapening bond yields (see chart in weekly report). All elements will be in play this week with key data on tap, a plethora of Fedspeak, and Treasury supply.

Additionally, earnings season begins. CPI (Tuesday) and trade prices (Wednesday) are on the calendar, along with retail sales (Thursday) and production (Thursday) reports, all of which are expected to pop higher on the month.

Concurrently, Fed Chair Powell spoke overnight in a 60 Minutes interview and is slated to speak at the Economics Club of Washington (Wednesday). Meanwhile the Treasury auctions $120 bln in coupons. 

Central banks have helped underpin the global recovery by assuring the ultra-accommodative stance will be here for the duration. But there are still speed bumps ahead. Fed Chair Powell has underscored the incompleteness of the recovery and noted the downside risks of the new virus strains. And though core central banks continue to playdown the the jump in inflation, the markets are concerned policymakers will be forced to tapering in advance of their current forecasts.

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The big question is will inflation and a reduction in accommodation be the speed bumps on the recovery road. In the U.S. attention will be on CPI, retail sales, Fedspeak, earnings, and supply.

Europe will monitor virus developments along with inflation, trade, and production data. Asia’s focus is on China’s Q1 GDP, trade, and retail sales. The BoK and RBNZ meet, but no changes in policy are expected.

Key Drivers for the Week of April 12

TIP – This is a 1-minute brief bullet-point summary. It is a tool that gives investors and financial a fast and simple list of what to watch for and talking points for the week.

  • Central banks continue to support global growth while playing down inflation
  • Markets concerned that inflation may force policy tightening sooner than CB’s suggest
  • U.S. CPI, retail sales, Philly Fed, Empire State PMIs awaited
  • Fedspeak from Powell, VC Clarida, Williams, Daly, Bostic, Rosengren, Mester
  • Treasury auctions $120 bln in 3-, 10-, 30-year coupons
  • Earnings season kicks off in earnest Wednesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs
  • Canada digests jobs data, awaits Business Outlook Survey, housing starts
  • China loan data, trade, GDP, retail sales awaited; Japan PPI, core machine orders
  • BoK seen on hold at 0.5% rate; RBNZ seen keeping policy steady at 0.25% rate
  • Near term downside risks for Europe from virus, slow vaccine rollout
  • German ZEW Investor Confidence, HICP; Eurozone CPI, production, trade due
  • UK recovery seen accelerating, but setbacks from AstraZeneca problems
  • UK data on production, trade, GDP, BRC retail sales should reflect improving economy

Key Market Trends

Tip: Use this as a quick guide on the short-term direction of key markets. I once had a client that would call me nearly every day asking the direction of the markets. This is a quick cheat sheet to know the trend and help understand what is happening with the markets.

LastCHG %CHGHIGHLOWTREND
Dow33800.610.89%297.0333810.8733526.19Strong Buy
S&P 5004128.810.77%31.634129.484095.51Strong Buy
Crude (WTI)59.359-0.67%-0.40359.92159.09Neutral
Gold1743.72-0.61%10.791757.251731.02Neutral
10 Year1.6663.20%0.0521.6851.625Buy
Bitcoin/USD59807.630.07%40.760679591650.15Neutral
US Dollar Index92.1820.12%0.11392.41392.025Neutral
VIX16.69−1.53%−0.2617.3416.2Sell
REIT Index2321.99−0.10%−2.432327.532315.55Buy

S&P 500 Sectors

Tip: Use this section to know the performance of various sectors, weight portfolios, or look for trades. Modern portfolio theory stresses the importance of diversification, but recently several sectors like technology have out-performed others like utilities. This is also a way to narrow the sectors to find investment opportunities.

REIT Alert: Due to Covid-19, there is a large percentage of people that have not paid rent or mortgages. We are very worried about the effect it could have on real estate investment trusts’ (REITS) value. Even though the sectors may trending bullish, we believe that REITs could have a significant drop in value.

Sector Name5-Day Return1-Month Return3-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year Return5-Year ReturnTrend
 Basic Materials0.30%4.40%5.60%11.90%1.60%44.40%96.40%Bull
 Communication Services3.30%5.00%13.10%14.00%3.70%68.50%65.30%Bull
 Consumer Cyclical3.60%7.30%7.50%12.30%2.00%104.80%172.10%Bull
 Consumer Defensive1.20%6.30%4.40%4.00%-6.30%43.80%50.40%Bull
 Energy-4.40%-6.40%18.30%30.10%19.80%-19.00%-8.60%Bear
 Financial Services1.70%4.00%14.50%20.00%9.70%36.10%113.50%Bull
 Healthcare0.80%3.40%-0.40%3.30%-7.00%59.30%96.80%Bull
 Industrials1.50%6.40%11.50%14.10%3.80%49.50%103.10%Bull
 Real Estate0.20%6.90%13.50%11.00%0.70%40.50%38.50%Bull
 Technology4.40%8.60%7.10%8.20%-2.10%134.90%273.70%Bull
 Utilities1.20%6.10%4.60%4.20%-6.10%39.70%57.10%Bull

Week Ahead: Speed Bumps on the Recovery Road

NORTH AMERICA

The U.S. has a busy slate of key data on offer, including CPI, retail sales, and PMIs. There is also a packed calendar of Fedspeak with the Chair Powell, VC Clarida, and NY’s Williams all on deck, along with several others on the FOMC. Policymakers will again have the chance to address the markets’ concerns over inflation, especially with CPI on tap, but will again stress the pick up in price pressures is likely to be transitory and due largely to base effects.

However, they’ve also indicated that the stronger economy, stimulus spending, pent-up demand, supply shortages, and bottlenecks should impact. Indeed, the retail sales which should reflect the bullish impacts of stimulus cash and pent-up demand. Concurrently, manufacturing is seen remaining robust as producers look to rebuild inventory.

In spite of the Fed’s best efforts to ease inflation worries, the price numbers retain the ability to unnerve investors as seen in recent market fluctuations. We have seen the 10-Year rise dramatically since mid-February on inflation fears which has been largely due to Biden’s increased spending.

However, between Powell’s warnings and the strength already seen in many other price indicators, potential shock value from stronger than expected March CPI (Tuesday) and trade prices (Wednesday) will be tempered.

CPI is projected to climb 0.5% (median 0.5%) overall and 0.2% (median 0.2%) for the core, following respective gains of 0.4% and 0.1% in February. As-expected March figures would result in a 2.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.7% pace in February. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y pace, up from 1.3% y/y in February.

As with PPI, the headline inflation figures are being lifted by a commodity price updraft led by energy and big trade price gains. We expect headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges to climb sharply into Q2 due to hard comparisons. Import and export prices are both estimated to rise 0.9% (medians 0.9%) in March after respective February gains of 1.3% and 1.6%.

Retail sales, meanwhile, have the potential to provoke a reaction in the markets given projections for a hefty jump. We’re forecasting a 4.8% (median 5.4%) jump for total sales and a 4.5% (median 4.6%) climb for the ex-autos aggregate. As suggested by the medians, there is a fair degree of upside risk. Estimates for the headline ranged from 9.5% to 2.7%, and were 9.5% to 1.5% for the ex-auto.

Notably, the recent round of stimulus checks and a snapback in activity following a big February headwind from the Texas freeze and cold weather across the Midwest and east coast should provide a big boost to sales. Also, rising optimism as the number of vaccinated rises could also see consumers open their wallets in March.

The Philly Fed and Empire state indexes could cause a splash, given that these timely reports cover the first half of April. The Philly Fed index is seen retreating to 35.0 in April from a 48-year high of 51.8 in March. The Empire State index is projected to ease to 16.0 in April from a 4-year high of 17.4 in March. Despite the pullbacks expected for both measures, levels should remain historically strong. Broadly, these diffusion indexes should remain elevated through at least mid-2021 as factory activity continues to ramp up.

Also, it’s earnings season again with expectations for robust gains. Monday’s docket is empty and Tuesday has Fastenal. Things kick off Wednesday with JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Infosys, and First Republic Bank . Thursday has UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, and J.B. Hunt. On Friday, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansa City Southern, Citizens Financial, and Ally Financial release results.

Fed officials will have yet more opportunities to further broadcast their message (as reiterated by VC Clarida last week) that policymakers do not expect to lift rates until the condition of substantial further progress on goals is met, and that they will communicate as they believe they see progress being made.

Moreover, they have been clear that they see the inflation rise this year as likely to be transitory. Rosengren talks about the economic outlook (Monday). Harker discusses the economic outlook (Tuesday), Daly, Mester, Bostic and Rosengren discuss racism and the economy (also Tuesday). On Wednesday, Powell delivers a speech, VC Clarida discusses the policy framework, Williams is in a moderated discussion, and Bostic discusses cities and systemic racism. Thursday sees Bostic speak on economic inequality, Daly on monetary policy and financial stability, Clarida talks to the Shadow Open Market Committee, Mester discusses economic inclusion, and Logan speaks at a SIFMA event. The Beige Book will be released on Wednesday.

And if all that is not enough, supply heats up with the $120 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions. The offerings include the record $58 bln in 3-year notes, $38 bln in reopened 10s, and $24 bln in reopened 30s. Treasuries gave up ground to end the week, although rates are well off of recent highs. The wi 3-year cheapened 2 bps to 0.36%, with the wi 10-year up 4 bps to 1.665%, while the bond edged up 2.5 bps to 2.340%. Most of this year’s auctions have seen limited interest, worrying investors that demand may be limited, and hence pressuring rates higher.

Canada will continue to assess the strong March jobs report, where employment surged 303.1k, supporting a more optimistic view on the recovery. That will be put to the test with the BoC Business Outlook Survey (Monday), where it is expected to reveal a firming in business sentiment but with likely divergences between industries as fresh restrictions early in the year and ongoing supply chain issues impact.

The slow vaccine rollout in Canada could be a headwind to sentiment. Manufacturing shipments (Thursday) are expected to fall -1.0% in February after the 3.1% jump in January. Housing starts (Friday) are seen rising to 250.0k in March from 245.9k in February — the housing market remains a winner of the pandemic economy. February wholesale shipments are due Friday, and are projected to slip -0.4% following the 4.0% surge in January. The release of March existing home sales is expected on Thursday.

ASIA

Attention will remain centered on inflation dynamics, with some angst apparent following China’s hotter CPI and PPI prints seen last Friday. The global growth outlook, bond yields, and of course, the state of the Covid pandemic will also be in the mix this week. China’s calendar will be of great interest, with data including Q1 GDP, March trade, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed investment. In contrast, Japan’s docket is light, though includes March PPI, core machinery orders, and bank loan figures. Elsewhere, a mix of prices, growth, production and employment data are on tap. For central banks, South Korea’s BoK and New Zealand’s RBNZ meet — neither bank is expected to shift policy, and rates are seen steady at 0.50%, and 0.25%, respectively.

In China, March loan growth and new yuan loan figures are tentatively slated Monday. News that China has asked lenders to curtail lending for the remainder of the year, due to bubble concerns, may not show up in the March lending data, though will be of interest for the April numbers. We forecast an increase in new loans for March, largely on seasonal factors, though also a function of the recovery.

The March trade report (Tuesday) is expected to see the surplus widen to $50.0 bln from $37.9 bln with gains in both exports and imports. Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in surging to a record 20.0% y/y clip versus 6.5% in Q4 thanks to the strength in the rebound as well as base effects. March retail sales (Friday) should be 30.0% stronger y/y compared to the prior 4.6% pace. March industrial output is also estimated to post a 30.0% y/y rate, slowing from the 35.1% previously. Cumulative fixed investment (Friday) is forecast at up 30.0% y/y from 35.0%.

Japan March PPI (Monday) is expected to pop to up to a 0.6% y/y from -0.7% previously, in part on rising oil prices. That would break a string of 12 consecutive months in contraction and will put an additional spotlight on inflation pressures. March bank loan figures are also due Monday. February core machinery orders (Wednesday) should reflect the improving, though still choppy conditions from the pandemic and regional and global growth variations. We project a 2.0% m/m rebound following the -4.5% drop in January.

India has March CPI (Monday) and it is expected to heat up to a 5.5% y/y pace from 5.0%. The contraction in industrial production (Monday) is seen deepening, falling to a -4.0% y/y rate from -1.6%. March WPI (Thursday) likely spiked up to 6.0% y/y from 4.2%. Increases in commodity and manufactured goods are seen driving the index higher. It will be one more sign of inflation pressures. The March trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the deficit widen to $14.0 bln from $12.6 bln in February.

South Korea’s BoK meets meets (Thursday) with no change to its 0.50% repo rate expected. The rate was eased 25 bps back in May after a 50 bp slashing in March due to the pandemic. March unemployment (Thursday) is forecast to have slipped to 3.8% from 4.0%. Indonesia March trade (Thursday) is expected to reveal a narrowing in the surplus to $1.5 bln from $2.0 bln. Singapore advance Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is estimated at -1.0% y/y from -2.4% in Q4.

In Australia, the focus is on employment (Thursday), anticipated to show a 40.0k gain in March after the 88.7k improvement in February. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.7% from 5.8%. There is nothing from the RBA this week. Last week, the RBA highlighted that it is monitoring trends in the housing market, adding to the evidence that central banks are starting to worry about the side effects of ultra-accommodative policy settings. The bank held rates steady, matching widespread expectations. New Zealand’s calendar is all about the RBNZ — no change to the 0.25% policy setting is expected at the Wednesday meeting. However, we anticipate a reiteration of their growing concern over the housing market.

EUROPE

Eurozone: virus developments don’t look great in France or Germany and the vaccine rollout is not as fast as officials had hoped, which means short term there are still downside risks to the outlook. Looking ahead though, there is strengthening confidence that the stimulus fueled rebound in the U.S. will help to support a recovery in world and indeed European growth.

Survey data suggest that supply chain pressures are building and producer prices are picking up and against that background the debate on when and if purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will be scaled back. So far the focus remains on trying to keep yields down and spreads in, but once the recovery looks more stable divisions at the ECB are likely to become more apparent, especially as the doves will push for PEPP to become a permanent part of the ECB’s toolkit. For now though central bankers are united in their call for fiscal stimulus and a quick payout of the EU’s rescue fund, which still hasn’t cleared all hurdles yet and is facing a challenge at Germany’s constitutional court.

With that in mind the German ZEW Invstor confidence for April will be watched carefully. We suspect that investors will continue to remain focused on the strength of the U.S. recovery and the positive outlook for world growth and that the reading will show a further improvement in the headline rate to 78.5 (median 79.0) from 76.6 in the previous month, while the current conditions indicator is likely to remain firmly in negative territory.

Recovery hopes are also underpinning reflation trades and concerns that a rebound in demand will fuel a quicker rise in prices than central banks currently expect. And that is giving rise to beliefs that monetary policy will have to be tightened more quickly than central bankers currently want to admit. So far, however, the uptick in consumer prices is mainly due to the fact that negative base effects from energy prices have fallen out of the equation. The batch of final inflation data for March is expected to confirm this. German HICP is set to come in unchanged at 2.0% y/y (median same), the Eurozone CPI number is likely to be confirmed at 1.3% y/y (median same) and core at 0.9%.

Eurozone industrial production, trade data, and retail sales numbers for February meanwhile are likely to confirm that first quarter growth was negative, which will leave the Eurozone, if not Germany, in technical recession.

U.K.: the UK economy is amid a phase of accelerating economic recovery, with Monday heralding stage three of four in the government’s road map to a return to societal normalcy. The Covid vaccine rollout, although suffering a setback amid a phase of restricted supply that has been compounded by concerns about the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, has remained on track, and is evidently been successful in greatly suppressing both new cases and mortality, which are both less than 5% of what they were at the peak in early January. The latest data shows that while UK has given 56.7 vaccine doses per 100 residents. This compares to the European Union’s administering of only 19.8 doses per 100 residents so far.

The data calendar brings February data on production, trade and GDP, along with the March BRC retail sales report (all released on Tuesday). Industrial production is expected to rebound by 0.5% m/m after the 1.5% contraction in January, and GDP is seen rising by 0.6% m/m in February after shrinking by 2.9% in the month prior. More forward looking indications, most notably the March PMI surveys, have pointed to an increase in the rate of expansion in activity in the months ahead.

Switzerland: The Swiss data calendar is quite, highlighted only by PPI data for March (Friday).

Stocks & ETF Watch List

Tip: Use this section to find stocks and ETFs to add value to your portfolio by increasing the alpha (return) and decreasing beta (beta). Our list is updated weekly to help provide our readers with timely insights. Readers should do their own research before making any investment.

Solid Picks

This group of stock/ETF picks is likely to experience growth and perform well into the near future. The “Fair Value” is a calculation using a discount cash flow analysis to determine the Intrinsic Value. The rank score of a stock, where a score of 1 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key return metrics. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerRankCompanyPriceFair ValueDividend Yield1-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year ReturnBeta 3-Year5-Year ReturnDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
HVT1Haverty Furniture Cos$39.75$42.092.20%13.50%44.50%34.20%174.90%0.8193.80%7698
MLR4Miller Industries$46.00$49.341.60%3.30%21.50%11.20%93.80%0.76162.40%8494
TRNS24Transcat$49.75$50.87– 6.30%43.50%33.20%213.90%0.84374.70%– 66
CLGX16CoreLogic$79.79$92.901.70%0.80%3.60%-6.70%82.60%0.86136.40%6086
SSTK22Shutterstock$92.90$86.080.90%6.60%29.90%19.60%102.90%0.72151.90%4193
TTC14Toro$106.25$97.941.00%9.20%12.30%2.00%84.40%0.8158.70%6292
IRBT9iRobot$116.82$132.65– 2.40%45.50%35.20%78.00%0.99236.60%– 98
AJG13Arthur J. Gallagher$132.55$115.901.50%6.30%7.60%-2.70%108.30%0.88240.50%6265
PKI5PerkinElmer$133.39$179.520.20%5.90%-7.00%-17.30%81.50%0.86171.70%1376
MODV20ModivCare$141.00$172.81– 3.70%1.70%-8.60%96.70%0.77197.20%– 90
KEYS15Keysight Technologies$146.23$191.73– 7.30%10.70%0.40%185.10%1.04447.30%– 77
LSTR18Landstar System$169.42$180.090.50%4.40%27.80%17.50%69.80%0.87186.90%2584
WSM3Williams-Sonoma$183.22$160.581.30%41.90%80.70%70.40%303.20%1.12282.60%6999
TGT6Target$205.36$188.971.30%14.60%16.70%6.50%211.10%0.71196.00%2367
DHR21Danaher$232.36$299.850.40%7.50%4.70%-5.60%141.60%0.8238.30%7588
MOH7Molina Healthcare$240.98$264.29– 10.50%13.30%3.00%198.00%1.01283.80%– 66
SMG10Scotts Miracle Gro$248.99$213.281.00%17.80%25.40%15.10%230.70%0.98298.90%6590
SHW17Sherwin-Williams$255.29$332.350.90%8.50%4.50%-5.80%102.20%0.93170.60%5772
CMI8Cummins$259.38$297.232.10%-2.70%14.90%4.60%80.80%0.96182.00%9587
WSO19Watsco$276.10$244.652.80%15.40%22.80%12.50%67.40%0.59146.00%3875
WDFC23WD-40$280.07$384.361.00%-8.00%5.70%-4.60%122.80%0.57195.70%2057
HD12Home Depot$319.23$306.692.10%21.20%20.90%10.70%99.10%1.03168.60%7384
TMO11Thermo Fisher Scientific$478.88$619.400.20%6.90%2.90%-7.40%130.30%0.83241.80%4487
BIO2Bio-Rad Laboratories$602.57$627.69– 7.20%3.40%-6.90%146.10%0.83341.30%– 97

Income Stock & ETFs Picks

This list of stocks and ETFs are selected for their ability to pay dividends. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

Dividend Stock Picks

TickerCompanySectorPriceEx-Dividend DateDividend YieldBeta 3-YearConsecutive Div. Growth YearsYTD Return3-Year Return
ABAllianceBernstein HoldingFinancial Services$40.292/19/20219.60%1.23122.40%98.40%
ABBABBIndustrials$32.083/29/20212.70%0.94118.00%58.80%
ABBVAbbVieHealthcare$107.544/14/20214.80%0.7771.50%38.30%
ABRArbor Realty TrustReal Estate$15.933/2/20218.30%1.1814.60%145.80%
AFLAflacFinancial Services$51.642/16/20212.60%1.110+16.90%27.30%
AMGNAmgenHealthcare$248.955/14/20212.80%0.899.10%60.00%
APAMArtisan Partners AssetFinancial Services$53.362/11/20215.80%1.318.60%126.80%
AQNAlgonquin PowerUtilities$16.433/30/20213.80%0.8280.80%88.70%
AVGOBroadcomTechnology$485.093/19/20213.00%1.2710+11.70%131.80%
BKEBuckleConsumer Cyclical$42.944/14/20213.10%0.99047.10%153.90%
BMOBank of MontrealFinancial Services$91.674/30/20213.70%1.01921.90%38.40%
BPMPBP Midstream PartnersEnergy$12.801/27/202110.90%0.84224.10%-2.40%
BTGB2GoldBasic Materials$4.713/5/20213.40%0.321-15.10%78.60%
CAGConagra BrandsConsumer Defensive$36.191/28/20213.00%0.4610.60%6.90%
CMCanadian Imperial BankFinancial Services$98.903/26/20214.70%0.88917.10%33.30%
CSCOCisco SystemsTechnology$52.094/5/20212.80%1.04918.20%38.60%
CTRECareTrust REITReal Estate$24.063/30/20214.40%1.1769.70%106.60%
DHTDHT HoldingsEnergy$6.072/17/202117.80%0.59217.00%135.30%
DKLDelek Logistics PartnersEnergy$37.732/1/20219.70%1.2720.80%83.00%
DOCPhysicians Realty TrustReal Estate$18.263/31/20215.00%0.8505.30%41.60%
ELPCia Paranaense De EnergiaUtilities$1.114/1/20218.70%1.164-15.90%83.20%
ENIAEnel AmericasUtilities$8.681/21/20215.70%0.7836.20%-15.50%
EPDEnterprise Prods PartnersEnergy$22.884/29/20217.90%0.9410+19.40%17.10%
EURNEuronavEnergy$8.752/24/202119.30%0.7419.70%28.10%
FAFFirst American FinancialFinancial Services$59.903/5/20213.10%0.9210+17.10%18.70%
FRGFranchise GroupConsumer Cyclical$37.403/30/20214.00%0.89124.20%302.50%
FROFrontlineEnergy$7.379/10/202027.10%0.9118.50%108.70%
GISGeneral MillsConsumer Defensive$60.134/8/20213.40%0.414.00%49.80%
GTYGetty RealtyReal Estate$29.753/24/20215.20%1.1789.50%36.40%
HCSGHealthcare Services GroupHealthcare$28.812/25/20212.90%0.9410+3.20%-26.70%
IBMIBMTechnology$135.732/9/20214.80%0.9710+9.30%2.80%
IPGInterpublic Gr of CosCommunication Services$29.402/26/20213.70%1.15826.30%44.40%
IRMIron MountainReal Estate$37.663/12/20216.60%0.8210+29.90%42.20%
ISBCInvestors BancorpFinancial Services$14.732/9/20213.80%1.06841.10%25.30%
KREFKKR Real Estate FinanceReal Estate$19.003/30/20219.10%0.8408.50%26.10%
LFCChina Life Insurance CoFinancial Services$10.267/6/20205.00%0.841-7.20%-18.80%
MCMoelis & CoFinancial Services$54.192/19/20214.10%1.01017.10%36.50%
MMM3MIndustrials$198.002/11/20213.00%0.8510+14.20%2.60%
MRKMerck & CoHealthcare$76.313/12/20213.40%0.6810+-5.90%48.40%
NEMNewmontBasic Materials$61.513/3/20213.60%0.3413.70%72.70%
NHINational Health InvestorsReal Estate$74.293/30/20215.90%1.2210+9.00%31.90%
NNNNational Retail PropsReal Estate$45.241/28/20214.60%0.9910+12.00%33.30%
NTAPNetAppTechnology$73.884/8/20212.60%1.16713.10%27.80%
NUSNu Skin EnterprisesConsumer Defensive$51.782/25/20212.90%0.7310+-4.50%-23.00%
OMCOmnicom GroupCommunication Services$77.663/9/20213.60%0.92025.70%21.20%
ORANOrangeCommunication Services$12.5012/3/20205.70%0.5705.40%-16.00%
ORIOld Republic IntlFinancial Services$23.383/8/20213.80%1.0510+26.30%37.50%
PHIPLDTCommunication Services$26.013/16/20216.30%0.462-3.90%12.90%
PMTPennyMac MortgageReal Estate$20.294/14/20219.30%1.11015.30%48.80%
PRKPark NationalFinancial Services$130.222/18/20213.20%0.9325.30%44.30%
PSXPPhillips 66 PartnersEnergy$32.011/28/202110.90%0.95725.20%-14.60%
QSRRestaurant Brands IntlConsumer Cyclical$66.803/22/20213.20%0.94510.20%31.80%
RGRSturm Ruger & CoIndustrials$68.513/11/20214.20%0.3616.30%43.20%
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaFinancial Services$93.484/21/20213.70%0.87915.10%38.00%
SAFTSafety Insurance GroupFinancial Services$84.993/4/20214.20%0.8410.30%25.60%
SCUSculptor CapitalFinancial Services$22.492/24/202112.80%1.1063.50%22.50%
SJMJM SmuckerConsumer Defensive$128.212/11/20212.80%0.3610+11.80%12.30%
STAGStag IndustrialReal Estate$34.913/30/20214.20%1.06912.70%71.60%
STWDStarwood Property TrustReal Estate$24.843/30/20217.70%1.06031.20%58.90%
SUNSunocoEnergy$32.942/5/202110.00%1.11017.40%75.40%
TAKTakeda PharmaceuticalHealthcare$17.259/29/20204.90%0.63-5.20%-17.70%
TDToronto-Dominion BankFinancial Services$66.154/8/20213.80%0.9410+19.70%35.30%
TGPTeekay LNG PartnersEnergy$14.672/1/20216.80%0.96230.60%-2.60%
TMToyota MotorConsumer Cyclical$154.289/29/20202.80%0.621-0.20%29.80%
TRTNTriton InternationalIndustrials$54.823/11/20214.20%1.06414.10%122.80%
UBSIUnited BanksharesFinancial Services$38.983/11/20213.60%1.1510+21.40%28.80%
VIRTVirtu FinancialFinancial Services$30.942/26/20213.10%0.08024.00%-2.40%
WPCW.P. CareyReal Estate$70.573/30/20215.90%0.9910+1.50%35.70%

Dividend Growth Stocks

TickerCompanySectorPriceEx-Dividend DateDividend YieldBeta 3-YearConsecutive Div. Growth YearsYTD Return3-Year Return
ADTTFAdvantestTechnology$49.323/30/20211.60%-0.0101.10%181.10%
AFGAmerican Financial GroupFinancial Services$118.244/14/20211.70%1.3110+35.70%23.60%
AGMFederal AgriculturalFinancial Services$100.263/15/20213.50%0.97936.20%32.60%
ALLAllstateFinancial Services$117.103/3/20212.80%0.9410+7.30%30.30%
APHAmphenolTechnology$68.463/22/20211.70%1.0695.20%69.20%
AUTLYAustalIndustrials$19.653/16/20213.40%0.153-4.70%56.40%
BAHBooz Allen HamiltonIndustrials$82.262/11/20211.80%0.718-5.20%121.90%
BOCHBank of Commerce HldgsFinancial Services$13.103/29/20211.80%0.99332.90%22.00%
CBOECboe Global MarketsFinancial Services$100.092/25/20211.70%0.6710+7.90%-5.30%
CIHHFChina Merchants BankFinancial Services$8.297/2/20202.00%0.3141.50%117.40%
CIHKYChina Merchants BankFinancial Services$37.857/1/20202.20%0.8421.00%106.90%
CIVBCivista BancsharesFinancial Services$23.041/15/20212.10%1.32932.20%6.90%
CRHCRHBasic Materials$48.753/18/20212.40%1.08116.80%56.20%
CWBCCommunity West BancsharesFinancial Services$13.102/8/20211.80%0.27045.20%23.80%
DKSDick’s Sporting GoodsConsumer Cyclical$82.163/18/20211.80%1.08646.80%162.80%
EHMEFgoeasyFinancial Services$94.623/25/20212.20%0.57625.00%270.80%
EWBCEast West BancorpFinancial Services$74.382/8/20211.80%1.24347.40%31.90%
FBNCFirst BancorpFinancial Services$43.443/30/20211.80%1.06329.00%28.30%
FNFFidelity National FinlFinancial Services$43.663/16/20213.30%0.93012.60%27.80%
FXNCFirst NationalFinancial Services$18.392/25/20212.60%0.2439.60%4.90%
GABCGerman American BancorpFinancial Services$46.132/9/20211.80%0.94840.20%47.60%
GSY.TOgoeasyFinancial Services$127.383/25/20212.10%1.3632.50%294.00%
HBNCHorizon BancorpFinancial Services$18.683/31/20212.80%1.23519.40%5.60%
HIIHuntington Ingalls IndusIndustrials$206.872/25/20212.20%0.85822.10%-14.90%
HKMPYHikma PharmaceuticalsHealthcare$59.683/18/20211.70%0.174-11.90%80.80%
HWBKHawthorn BancsharesFinancial Services$21.003/12/20212.50%1.139-3.60%17.00%
IBTXIndependent Bank GrFinancial Services$74.252/10/20211.60%1.35719.30%13.00%
ITOCYITOCHUIndustrials$64.059/28/20202.60%0.48510.90%84.10%
LKFNLakeland FinancialFinancial Services$68.951/22/20212.00%0.94729.40%61.30%
MDCM.D.C. HoldingsConsumer Cyclical$61.442/9/20212.20%1.34437.40%177.00%
MGRCMcGrath RentCorpIndustrials$81.444/14/20212.10%1.1310+22.10%64.60%
NOCNorthrop GrummanIndustrials$339.952/26/20211.70%0.7610+12.10%2.80%
NRIMNorthrim BanCorpFinancial Services$43.133/10/20213.40%1.2410+28.10%38.40%
NXSTNexstar Media GroupCommunication Services$150.542/11/20211.90%1.51738.60%150.10%
PFBCPreferred BankFinancial Services$66.494/6/20212.30%1.19033.30%14.00%
PKBKParke BancorpFinancial Services$19.851/29/20213.20%1.12628.40%28.30%
RILYB. Riley FinancialFinancial Services$61.413/9/20212.30%1.12247.60%292.10%
SBFGSB Financial GroupFinancial Services$17.752/11/20212.40%0.567-2.30%2.60%
SFBCSound Financial BancorpFinancial Services$41.002/9/20211.70%0.36730.20%20.20%
TROWT. Rowe Price GrFinancial Services$179.523/15/20212.40%1.2110+19.30%86.00%
VNNVFVonoviaReal Estate$68.644/19/20213.00%0.111-8.40%54.00%
WTFCWintrust FinancialFinancial Services$76.742/10/20211.60%1.31726.20%-6.50%
XNGSYENN Energy HoldingsUtilities$64.835/12/20211.90%0.43410.10%86.50%

ETFs

TickerCompanyCategory GroupDividend YieldBeta 3-YearExpense Ratio3-Year Return
DNLWisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Quality Dividend Growth FundInternational Equity1.80%0.850.58%39.10%
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETFU.S. Equity2.10%0.910.35%40.10%
SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETFU.S. Equity1.50%0.980.15%46.10%
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF SharesU.S. Equity1.90%0.90.06%44.60%

Dogs of the Dow

This list of DOW stocks based on H. G. Schneider’s Article in the Journal of Finance in 1951 that used price-earnings ratio. The general idea is that blue-chip companies that pay a dividend are more likely to withstand an economic downturn. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerCompanySectorDividend Yield3-Year ReturnBeta 3-YearDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
CATCaterpillarIndustrials1.90%42.90%1.19282
CVXChevronEnergy5.20%0.10%1.234662
DOWDowBasic Materials4.70%– 1.357566
IBMIBMTechnology5.50%-13.20%0.989373
KOCoca-ColaConsumer Defensive3.40%22.80%0.719340
MMM3MIndustrials3.40%-20.90%0.879789
PFEPfizerHealthcare4.70%7.40%0.686765
VZVerizon CommunicationsCommunication Services4.50%28.30%0.487758
WBAWalgreens Boots AllianceHealthcare3.90%-24.90%0.828664
XOMExxon MobilEnergy6.40%-18.20%1.046970

Economic Data Calendar

Week of April 12

We have a heavy release schedule in the second week of April that is concentrated at the end of the week. We expect big retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts gains in March with a boost from a reversal of February weather-hits and stimulus spending, alongside a solid business inventory rise in February. The inflation reports should show outsized March gains for CPI and trade prices, led by big commodity price increases. We expect modest April pullbacks in the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes from particularly elevated March levels, while Michigan sentiment climbs in April to new expansion-highs.

CPI/Core: 0.5%/0.2%

We expect March gains of 0.5% for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in February. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 10% in March. As-expected March figures would result in a 2.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.7% pace in February. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, up from 1.3% y/y in February. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures are being lifted by a commodity price updraft led by energy, alongside big trade price gains. Disruptions from February’s cold wave may have added to more general supply bottlenecks that are lifting prices, and further disruptions should be seen in March and April from the Suez canal closure. We expect headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges to climb sharply into Q2 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.8% area in May, alongside a 2.4% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 3.1% and 2.3%. The Fed will face no pressure to withdraw accommodation any time soon despite the likely Q2 inflation spike.

Import/Export Price Index: 0.8%/0.9%

Import prices are estimated to rise 0.8% in March, with a 0.9% export price rise, after February gains of 1.3% imports and 1.6% for exports. Ex-petroleum import prices are expected to grow 0.5%, while ex-agriculture export prices grow 0.9%. We expect a big March boost from petroleum prices, support from a big decline in the value of the dollar through the winter months, and the potential start of a boost from the Suez canal closure. Oil prices have risen sharply through the turn of the year, with an extra-updraft in February from the Texas freeze that idled some production. The ongoing rebound in global production since the middle of last year has been associated with bottlenecks and shortages in many industries that have raised prices, and the markets have focused on upside inflation surprises in 2021.

Empire State/Philly Fed Index: 16.0/35.0

The Empire State index is assumed to slip to 16.0 in April from a 4-year high of 17.4 in March and a 7-month low of 3.5 in January, versus a 20-month high of 17.2 last July. The Philly Fed index is seen easing to 35.0 in April from a 48-year high of 51.8 in March and a previous 11-month high of 26.5 in January. Despite the pullbacks, levels should remain robust. These diffusion indexes will remain elevated through at least mid-2021 as factory activity continues to ramp up. Coronavirus vaccines and two rounds of stimulus payments in Q1 have provided a solid lift for sentiment, alongside the upward pressure on output from lean inventories, and rebounding demand in many industries well above pre-pandemic levels.

Retail/Ex-Auto Sales: 3.5%/3.0%

We expect a 3.5% March retail sales headline rise with a 3.0% ex-autos increase, following respective February drops of -3.0% and -2.7%. We expect a 10% bounce for the CPI gasoline index that should provide a boost to service station sales. Unit vehicle sales surged by 13.3% to 17.8 mln in March from 15.7 mln in February. Sales will face a big March lift from the recent round of stimulus checks, following a big February headwind from the Texas freeze and cold weather across the midwest and east coast, but a prior January stimulus boost. We expect continued strength in non-store sales, and a continuation of the rebound for sales of clothing, furniture, electronics, and appliances as we further reverse last year’s pandemic hit. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at rates of 6.9% in Q1 and 6.6% in Q2, after a 2.3% clip in Q4.

Industrial Production: 3.3%

Industrial production is projected to rise 3.3% in March, after the -2.2% February headline decrease. We saw February dips of -3.1% for manufacturing, and -5.4% for mining, but a 7.4% jump for utilities. In March, we expect a 4.0% manufacturing rebound and a 6.5% increase for mining. We expect a -5.0% drop for utilities after frigid temperatures across a wide swath of the U.S boosted output in February. We expect the vehicle assembly rate to rebound to a still-depressed 9.9 mln in March from 9.3 mln in February, as assemblies are being disrupted by semiconductor shortages. We saw a 0.1 mln trough pace in April, versus a 3.7 mln prior trough in January of 2009 that marked the start of the auto bankruptcies. Capacity utilization should rise to 76.2% from 73.8% in February. Industrial production expanded at a 9.2% clip in Q4, and we expect faster growth rates of 7.0% in Q1 and a hefty 12.8% in Q2.

Business Inventories: 0.5%

Business inventories are estimated to rise 0.5% in February after a 0.4% (was 0.3%) January increase. Our forecast incorporates an expected 0.9% rise for factory inventories, alongside a -1.9% wholesale drop and a flat retail figure, as seen in the advance indicators report. Sales should fall -2.6% in February, after a 4.7% rise in January. As-expected readings would result in the I/S ratio rising to 1.32 from 1.28 in January and five prior months at 1.33, versus an all-time high of 1.68 in April and a 1.47 peak from the last recession in both March of 2009 and December of 2008. Inventories in the Q4 GDP report showed a $62.1 bln accumulation rate after a -$3.7 bln liquidation in Q3 and a record -$287.0 bln pace in Q2. We expect an -$8 bln liquidation rate in Q1 that subtracts -$70 bln from GDP growth. Inventories were already unwinding pre-COVID-19 as earlier tariff front running reversed course before the big Q2 hit, leaving room for the start of a protracted inventory rebound in Q4 of 2020.

Housing Starts: 1.580 mln

Housing starts are expected to rebound to a 1.580 mln pace after a weather-driven dip to 1.421 mln in February and a 14-year high of 1.680 mln in December. Permits are expected to ease to 1.710 mln from a 1.720 mln in February and a 14-year high of 1.886 mln in January. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply since Q2 of 2020, before a pull-back in February. We saw 14-year highs for pending, new, and existing home sales in 2020, and a 12-year high for the MBA purchase index in mid-January. Before the pandemic, permits were already following a solid growth path that began in Q2 of 2019, fueled by low mortgage rates, and this strength has been exacerbated by the emerging migration of families to the suburbs. We expect a 1.528 mln average for starts in Q1, below the 14-year high 1.584 mln pace in Q4. We expect a 1.772 mln average for permits in Q1 that outpaces the 14-year high 1.628 mln average in Q4.

Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary: 89.0

We expect the preliminary April Michigan sentiment report to improve to a 1-year high of 89.0 from a prior 1-year high of 84.9 and a 6-month low of 76.8 in February, with a big lift from expanding vaccine availability and new stimulus spending. Expectations should rise to a 1-year high of 85.7 from a prior 1-year high of 79.7 in March and a 3-month low of 70.7 in February. Current conditions should rise to 1-year high of 94.2 from a prior 1-year high of 93.0 in March and a 4-month low of 86.2 in February. The 1-year inflation gauge should tick up to 3.2% from 3.1% in March, versus a 3.3% high in February that was last seen in July of 2014. The 5-10 year inflation measure should be steady from the 2.8% high in March last seen in July of 2015, versus 2.7% in January and February. All the confidence measures are climbing into Q2 with vaccine distributions, stimulus deposits, and the easing of coronavirus restrictions, following a slight downward tilt through the holidays.

Complete List of Events

DATEETLOCALEINDICATOR – EVENTFORFORECASTMEDIANLAST
 11 Apr 19:50 Japan PPI Y/Y  MAR 0.6%  -0.7%
 11 Apr 19:50 Japan M2 Y/Y  MAR   9.6%
 11 Apr 19:50 Japan Liquidity (L) Y/Y  MAR   6.0%
 11 Apr 19:50 Japan Bank Loans Y/Y  MAR   6.2%
 12 Apr 03:00 Turkey Unemployment Rate nsa  FEB   12.2%
 12 Apr 04:00 China M0 Y/Y  MAR   4.2%
 12 Apr 04:00 China M1 Y/Y  MAR   7.4%
 12 Apr 04:00 China M2 Y/Y  MAR   10.1%
 12 Apr 04:00 China Loan Growth Y/Y  MAR   12.6%
 12 Apr 04:00 China New Yuan Loans  MAR 2300B 1359B R
 12 Apr 04:00 Philippines FX Reserves USD  MAR   109.1B
 12 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (M/M)  FEB 0.9% 1.0% -5.9%
 12 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (Y/Y)  FEB   -6.4%
 12 Apr 05:30 India Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR 5.5%  5.0%
 12 Apr 08:00 India Industrial Production Y/Y  FEB -4.0%  -1.6%
 12 Apr 10:00 Eurozone ECB’s de Cos speaks at webinar
 12 Apr 10:30 Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey  Q1 50.0  48.0
 12 Apr 11:30 United States Treasury Auctions 3-Year Notes
 12 Apr 13:00 United States Treasury Auctions 10-Yr Notes Reopen
 12 Apr 13:00 Washington Fed’s Rosengren speaks on the economic outlook
 12 Apr 14:00 United States Treasury Budget  MAR -$658.0B -$660.0B -$310.9B
 12 Apr 19:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales – All (Y/Y)  MAR   1.0%
 12 Apr 19:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales – Same Store (Y/Y)  MAR   9.1%
 12 Apr 23:00 China Exports Y/Y  MAR   154.9%
 12 Apr 23:00 China Imports Y/Y  MAR   17.3%
 12 Apr 23:00 China Trade Balance USD  MAR 50.0B  37.9B
 12 Apr 23:00 South Korea M2 M/M  FEB   1.3%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom Industrial Production (M/M)  FEB  0.5% -1.5%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom Industrial Production (Y/Y)  FEB  -4.4% -4.9%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (M/M)  FEB   -2.3%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom GDP (M/M)  FEB  0.6% -2.9%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (Y/Y)  FEB   -5.2%
 13 Apr 02:00 United Kingdom Trade Balance – Visible (Gbp)  FEB  10.6B -9.8B
 13 Apr 04:00 Italy Industrial Production sa (M/M)  FEB   1.0%
 13 Apr 04:00 Italy Industrial Production wda (Y/Y)  FEB   -2.4%
 13 Apr 05:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment  APR 78.5 79.0 76.6
 13 Apr 05:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation  APR -59.0  -61.0
 13 Apr 06:00 Portugal CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M)  MAR   -0.5%
 13 Apr 06:00 Portugal CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y)  MAR 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
 13 Apr 06:00 Portugal Consumer Price Index (M/M)  MAR   -0.5%
 13 Apr 06:00 Portugal Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
 13 Apr 06:00 United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  MAR   95.8
 13 Apr 08:00 Brazil Retail Sales Y/Y  FEB   -0.3%
 13 Apr 08:30 United States CPI  MAR 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
 13 Apr 08:30 United States CPI Y/Y  MAR 2.5%  1.7%
 13 Apr 08:30 United States CPI ex-Food & Energy  MAR 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
 13 Apr 08:30 United States CPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y  MAR 1.5%  1.3%
 13 Apr 08:55 United States Redbook 04/10    -17.2%
 13 Apr 10:30 Eurozone ECB’s Villeroy speaks
 13 Apr 12:00 Philadelphia Fed’s Harker speaks on the economic outlook
 13 Apr 12:00 San Francisco Fed’s Daly takes part in racism and the economy event
 13 Apr 12:00 Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks to Economic Roundtable of the Ohio Valley
 13 Apr 13:00 United States Treasury Auctions 30-Yr Bonds Reopen
 13 Apr 16:00 Cleveland Fed’s Mester, Bostic, Rosengren speak on racism and the economy
 13 Apr 19:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate SA  MAR 3.8%  4.0%
 13 Apr 19:50 Japan Machinery Orders x-Elec&Ship M/M  FEB 2.0%  -4.5%
 13 Apr 20:00 Singapore GDP Y/Y – advance  Q1 -1.0%  -2.4%
 13 Apr 21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate   0.25%  0.25%
 14 Apr 03:00 Eurozone ECB’s Guindos in European Parliament
 14 Apr 03:30 Sweden Consumer Price Index (M/M)  MAR   0.3%
 14 Apr 03:30 Sweden Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR   1.4%
 14 Apr 03:30 Sweden CPIF (M/M)  MAR   0.3%
 14 Apr 03:30 Sweden CPIF (Y/Y)  MAR   1.5%
 14 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Industrial Production sa (M/M)  FEB -1.0%  0.8%
 14 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Industrial Production wda (Y/Y)  FEB   0.1%
 14 Apr 07:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 04/09    -5.1%
 14 Apr 07:45 Eurozone ECB’s Panetta in European Parliament
 14 Apr 08:30 United States Export Price Index  MAR 0.9% 0.9% 1.6%
 14 Apr 08:30 United States Import Price Index  MAR 0.9% 0.9% 1.3%
 14 Apr 08:30 United States Import Price Index ex-Petro  MAR 0.5%  0.5%
 14 Apr 09:15 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan takes part in a discussion on the economic outlook
 14 Apr 10:30 United Kingdom BoE’s Haskel speaks on webinar
 14 Apr 10:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks 04/09    -3.5M
 14 Apr 10:30 United States EIA Gasoline Stocks 04/09    4.0M
 14 Apr 10:30 United States EIA Distillate Stocks 04/09    1.5M
 14 Apr 12:00 Washington Fed Chair Powell speaks to the Economic Club of Washington
 14 Apr 13:00 Eurozone ECB’s Schnabel speaks in webinar
 14 Apr 14:00 United States Beige Book for Apr 27-28 FOMC Meeting
 14 Apr 14:30 New York Fed’s Williams in moderated discussion
 14 Apr 15:00 Washington Fed’s Clarida discusses policy framework
 14 Apr 16:00 Atlanta Fed’s Bostic discusses cities and systemic racism
 14 Apr 21:00 South Korea BoK Repo Rate   0.50%  0.50%
 14 Apr 21:30 Australia Employment  MAR 40.0K  88.7K
 14 Apr 21:30 Australia Unemployment Rate  MAR 5.7%  5.8%
 15 Apr 00:00 Indonesia Trade Balance USD  MAR 1.5B  2.0B
 15 Apr 00:00 Indonesia Exports Y/Y  MAR   8.6%
 15 Apr 00:00 Indonesia Imports Y/Y  MAR   14.9%
 15 Apr 01:30 India Trade Balance-CC  MAR -$14.0B  -$12.6B
 15 Apr 02:30 India Monthly WPI Y/Y  MAR 6.0%  4.2%
 15 Apr 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M)  MAR 0.7%  0.7% P
 15 Apr 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y)  MAR 1.4%  1.4% P
 15 Apr 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (M/M)  MAR 0.6%  0.6% P
 15 Apr 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR 1.1%  1.1% P
 15 Apr 03:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) Final  MAR 1.0%  1.0% P
 15 Apr 03:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) Final  MAR 1.3%  1.3% P
 15 Apr 03:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (M/M) Final  MAR 1.9%  1.9% P
 15 Apr 03:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) Final  MAR 1.2%  1.2% P
 15 Apr 03:00 Spain Trade Balance (Eur)  FEB   1.8B
 15 Apr 04:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Final  MAR   1.8% P
 15 Apr 04:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Final  MAR   0.6% P
 15 Apr 04:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (M/M) – Final  MAR   0.3% P
 15 Apr 04:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (Y/Y) – Final  MAR   0.8% P
 15 Apr 05:00 Greece Unemployment Rate  JAN   15.8%
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Retail Sales  MAR 4.8% 5.4% -3.0%
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Retail Sales ex-Auto  MAR 4.5% 4.6% -2.7%
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Index  APR 35.0 40.0 51.8
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Empire State Index  APR 16.0 19.0 17.4
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Initial Claims 04/10  710K 710K 744K
 15 Apr 08:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims 04/03  3,560K  3,734K
 15 Apr 08:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments M/M  FEB -1.0%  3.1%
 15 Apr 08:30 Canada Unfilled Orders (Manufacturing)  FEB   2.3%
 15 Apr 08:30 Canada New Orders (Manufacturing)  FEB   6.1%
 15 Apr 08:30 Canada Manufacturing Inventories  FEB   1.9%
 15 Apr 08:30 Canada Manufacturing I/S Ratio  FEB   1.57
 15 Apr 09:00 Russia Industrial Production (Y/Y)  MAR   -3.7%
 15 Apr 09:15 United States Industrial Production  MAR 3.3% 3.0% -2.2%
 15 Apr 09:15 United States Capacity Utilization  MAR 76.2% 75.6% 73.8%
 15 Apr 09:45 United States Langer Consumer Comfort Index 04/11    51.9
 15 Apr 10:00 United States Business Inventories  FEB 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
 15 Apr 10:00 United States NAHB Housing Mkt Index  APR 82  82
 15 Apr 10:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Stocks 04/09    20B
 15 Apr 11:00 United States Treasury Announces 20-Yr Bonds Reopen
 15 Apr 11:00 United States Treasury Announces 5-Year TIPS
 15 Apr 11:00 Colombia Retail Sales Y/Y  FEB   -6.4%
 15 Apr 11:00 Peru Unemployment Rate  MAR   14.5%
 15 Apr 11:30 Atlanta Fed’s Bostic discusses inequality
 15 Apr 14:00 San Francisco Fed’s Daly speaks on financial stability
 15 Apr 14:00 Argentina CPI Y/Y  MAR   40.7%
 15 Apr 14:00 Argentina CPI M/M  MAR   3.6%
 15 Apr 15:00 Colombia Industrial Production Y/Y  FEB   -6.4%
 15 Apr 15:45 Washington Fed’s Clarida speaks to Shadow Open Market Committee
 15 Apr 16:00 Cleveland Fed’s Mester discusses economic inclusion
 15 Apr 16:00 United States Net Long-Term Security Purchases  FEB $30.0B  $90.8B
 15 Apr 16:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows  FEB $30.0B  $106.3B
 15 Apr 22:00 China GDP Y/Y  Q1 20.0%  6.5%
 15 Apr 22:00 China Industrial Output Y/Y  MAR 20.0%  7.3%
 15 Apr 22:00 China Industrial Output (cumulative) Y/Y  MAR 30.0%  35.1%
 15 Apr 22:00 China Retail Sales Y/Y  MAR 30.0%  4.6%
 15 Apr 22:00 China Fixed Investment (cumulative) Y/Y  MAR 30.0%  35.0%
 16 Apr 02:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Final  MAR 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% P
 16 Apr 02:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Final  MAR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% P
 16 Apr 02:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Final  MAR 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% P
 16 Apr 02:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Final  MAR 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% P
 16 Apr 02:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (M/M)  MAR   UNCH
 16 Apr 02:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (Y/Y)  MAR   -1.1%
 16 Apr 04:00 Italy Trade Balance – Total (Eur)  FEB   1.6B
 16 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (M/M)  MAR   0.9% P
 16 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% P
 16 Apr 05:00 Eurozone CPI – Core (Y/Y)  MAR 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% P
 16 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Trade Balance sa (Eur)  FEB 20.0B  24.2B
 16 Apr 05:00 Eurozone Trade Balance nsa (Eur)  FEB   6.3B
 16 Apr 05:00 United Kingdom BoE’s Cunliffe and Woods speak
 16 Apr 08:15 Canada Housing Starts  MAR 250.0K  245.9K
 16 Apr 08:30 United States Housing Starts  MAR 1.580M 1.610M 1.421M
 16 Apr 08:30 United States Building Permits  MAR 1.710M 1.720M R
 16 Apr 08:30 United States Housing Completions  MAR 1.390M  1.362M
 16 Apr 08:30 Canada Wholesale Trade  FEB -0.4%  4.0%
 16 Apr 08:30 Canada Wholesale Inventories  FEB   0.7%
 16 Apr 08:30 Canada International Securities Transactions  FEB   C$1.3B
 16 Apr 10:00 United States Michigan Sentiment Prelim  APR 89.0 88.2 84.9
 16 Apr 10:45 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks at virtual climate change symposium
 16 Apr 12:30 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks at Bitcoin Conference
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