Report (Premium Edition) 03-29-2021

Introduction (Quick Overview)

The markets are likely to remain choppy as investors have to weigh the myriad dynamics impacting bonds and stocks. Positioning and portfolio rebalancing into month- and quarter-end should continue to be a major factor given the big swings this quarter.

Bull Driver For Equities: There are also billions of dollars in stimulus money (Deutsche Bank projects about $170 bln) likely to flow into stocks. However recent surveys have indicated Americans are not going to spend the money. A recent survey of 1090 by Refinitiv indicates that eight in 10 (80%) of Americans plan to mainly put their stimulus checks into either savings (48%) or pay down debt (32%). Of the remaining Americans, only one in five (20%) plan to mainly do otherwise by either spending (15%) or investing (5%) the amount they receive.

Bear Driver For Equities: The FT cited BofA research estimating U.S. private pension funds alone will have to rotate about $88 bln out of equities and into bonds, which was “historically significant” compared to the last three years. Also, JPMorgan estimates balanced/target-date mutual funds are primed to sell $136 bln of equities to buy fixed-income assets. Meanwhile, the varying degrees of virus cases and vaccine distribution continue to keep the markets on edge.

Junk Bond/High Yield Disaster: The junk bond/high yield market is now larger than the mortgage securities of 2008. If the 10 Year and/or economy starts drops, we could be looking at another depression.

Bottomline – Stagflation: Investors need to watch the 10-Year for increases and the flow of money. Money could flow out of equities at a rapid rate if the 10-Year goes above 1.75% because it would be greater than S&P 500 dividends. If this is followed by a slowing or drop in the economy, junk bonds would likely see huge losses and become worse as companies default. We would likely move into Stagflation where the economy would be low and have high inflation similar to the 1970s.

The data calendar is full today. February personal income and consumption highlight. We expect income to fall -7.5% after rising 10.0% in January, and spending to dip -0.2% from the prior 2.4% increase. The February advance goods trade report should show the deficit narrowing slightly to -$83.6 bln from -$84.6 bln. Both imports and exports are seen rising slightly.

Advance February wholesale and retail inventories are on tap as well. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is penciled in at 83.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading. There are no larger-cap earnings reports on tap. Supply is also out of the way for now. That, and month- and quarter-end flows may support Treasuries, while profit-taking and rotation out of stocks could weigh on Wall Street.

Key Drivers for the Week of March 29

TIP – This is a 1 minute brief bullet-point summary. It is a tool that gives investors and financial a fast and simple list of what to watch for and talking points for the week.

  • Vaccines, monetary and fiscal policy support boost optimism on recovery
  • Day-to-day progress choppy due to virus waves, problematic vax rollouts, restrictions
  • Easter holiday closures Friday through Monday in Europe
  • Wall Street closed Good Friday, Treasuries have half-day session
  • U.S. attention turns to jobs report, ISM, including wage and price data
  • Fedspeak from Waller, Quarles, Williams, Harker, and Bostic     
  • Canada releases GDP, industrial product prices, building permits 
  • Japan unemployment, retail sales, production, housing starts, Tankan, PMI, auto sales 
  • China reports PMIs; Australia retail sales, trade, building approvals slated
  • Covid restrictions in parts of Europe over Easter, relaxed reopenings expected after
  • Europe ESI Economic Confidence, HICP; German jobless, HICP, retail sales slated
  • UK BoE lending and money supply, third Q4 GDP report, final March PMI due 

Tip: Use this as a quick guide on the short-term direction of key markets. I once had a client that would call me nearly every day asking the direction of the markets. This is a quick cheat sheet to know the trend and help understand what is happening with the markets.

S&P 5003974.551.66%65.023978.193917.12Strong Bull
Crude (WTI)61.3880.97%0.58961.74159.399Bull
10 Year1.65−1.36%−0.0231.6831.634Bull
US Dollar Index92.7830.05%0.04592.91592.723Bull
REIT Index2298.92.15%48.472300.232250.79Strong Bull

S&P 500 Sectors

Tip: Use this section to know the performance of various sectors, weight portfolios, or look for trades. Modern portfolio theory stresses the importance of diversification, but recently several sectors like technology have out-performed others like utilities. This is also a way to narrow the sectors to find investment opportunities.

REIT Alert: Due to Covid-19, there is a large percentage of people that have not paid rent or mortgages. We are very worried about the effect it could have on real estate investment trusts’ (REITS) value. Even though the sectors may trending bullish, we believe that REITs could have a significant drop in value.

Sector Name5-Day Return1-Month Return3-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year Return5-Year ReturnTrend
 Basic Materials2.30%9.30%12.50%11.50%5.30%43.10%96.80%Bull
 Communication Services-3.60%0.10%8.40%7.00%0.80%59.50%57.90%Bear
 Consumer Cyclical-0.50%3.30%7.50%6.40%0.20%89.70%158.90%Bull
 Consumer Defensive3.50%8.50%4.40%3.40%-2.80%45.30%52.60%Bull
 Financial Services0.70%7.00%19.70%17.80%11.60%31.50%107.80%Bull
 Real Estate3.20%6.30%11.30%10.00%3.80%42.20%40.90%Bull

Week Ahead: Outlooks Brighten, Risks Remain

On March 29, 2021

The markets are growing increasingly confident in the bigger picture recovery scenario, supported by ongoing ultra-accommodative central bank policies, massive government stimulus programs, and vaccine developments. But the day-to-day progress remains choppy due to variance in vaccine rollouts globally, ongoing waves of virus infections complicated by new variants, and uncertainty over the staying power of stimulus-driven growth. Meanwhile, inflation remains very much on the markets’ mind, as supply chain difficulties, the extent of the pent-up demand likely to be unleashed as economies reopen, and base effects complicate the outlook. Hence, economic data remain crucial, and the coming week provides timely reports from the U.S., EU and Asia. In the U.S., March employment is in the spotlight, with total jobs and wage growth focal points. In Europe, another round of confidence data will detail the progress of the manufacturing and service sectors, including price dynamics. Lockdowns and vaccination developments will also be closely tracked. In Asia, China’s manufacturing PMIs will be scrutinized, while Japan offers its usual heavy month-end data package.


In the U.S., two reports should capture the lion’s share of attention — employment and ISM manufacturing. Note that the Wall Street will be closed Friday for Good Friday, while the bond market will be open for a shortened session to accommodate the jobs report. A 500k increase in March nonfarm payrolls (Friday) is anticipated after gains of 379k in February and the 166k rise in January. A rise in line with out forecast would be the highest since October. The jobless rate should tick down to 6.1% from 6.2% in February, and 6.3% in January. Average hourly earnings are assumed to tick just 0.1% firmer in March. The annual (y/y) wage gain should ease to 4.5% from 5.3% due mostly to an easier comparison, which could offer some mild solace to inflation concerns. Hours-worked are assumed to rebound 1.0% after a -0.5% February dip, with the workweek rising to 34.8 from a weather-depressed 34.6 in February. Broadly, the payroll rebound should gain steam in 2021 following the winter lull, thanks to stimulus deposits and vaccines.

The ISM manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to dip to a still strong 60.0 in March from a 2-year high of 60.8 in February. Producer sentiment has remained firm into 2021 as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, with an added lift into March from expanding vaccine availability and two rounds of stimulus distributions in January and March. Keep a close eye on prices paid, which climbed to a 13-year high of 86.0 in February from 82.1 in January. Surging demand and bottlenecks should add to price pressures, which in turn will likely add to inflation worries.

A modest amount of Fedspeak is due, as the Fed continues to broadcast its tolerance for inflation to run hot and commitment to maintain ultra-accommodative policy conditions until the labor market fully recovers. Governor Waller delivers a speech (Monday), Quarles talks about the Financial Stability Board (Tuesday), William’s participates in a moderated discussion (Tuesday), Harker tackles community banks and fintech (Thursday), and Bostic joins a NBER conference of inequality (Friday). There is nothing scheduled from Chairman Powell this week.

The corporate earnings docket remains quite lean this week. No reports are scheduled for Monday. Tuesday has Lululemon, McCormick, BioNTech, and FactSet. Wednesday brings Micron Technology, and Walgreens Boots. Thursday has CarMax. Friday reveals Carnival Corp’s results.

In Canada, the January GDP report (Wednesday) is the star attraction on this week’s calendar. We expect a 0.7% jump in GDP during January after the 0.1% gain in December. The February industrial product price index (Wednesday) and February building permits (Thursday) round out the calendar, but the two reports will be overlooked by the market is nearly always the case. There is nothing from the BoC this week. The next rate announcement is on April 21.


As around the rest of the globe, the focus will remain on yields, the inflation outlook, Covid cases, and progress on the vaccine rollout. The regional calendar is fairly busy this week and features the usual heavy month-end data from Japan including unemployment, retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing PMI. China reports manufacturing PMIs. Elsewhere, the usual mix of trade, production and prices are slated. There are no regional central bank meetings scheduled.

Japan’s docket kicks off with February unemployment (Tuesday), seen ticking up to 3.0% from 2.9%. The job offers/seekers ratio will likely remain steady at 1.10. February retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to contract at a -5.0% y/y pace for large retailers versus -7.2% previously, and at a -2.0% y/y clip from -2.4% overall. February industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast to have fallen -1.0% y/y versus the January rise of 4.3%. February housing starts (Wednesday) are estimated to have declined at -6.0% y/y rate from the prior -3.1%. February construction orders are due Wednesday as well. The March Tankan report (Thursday) is set to improve to 2 from -10 for large manufacturers, and to -3 from -5 for large non-manufacturers. The March manufacturing PMI (Thursday) likely improved to 51.7 from 51.4. March auto sales are due Thursday as well. In China, the official March CFLP manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 51.0 from 50.6. The March Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is estimated to have risen to 51.5 from 50.9

South Korea February industrial production (Wednesday) should rise 1.0% y/y from the previous 7.5% gain. The March trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the surplus rise to $4.0 bln from $2.6 bln. Malaysia February trade (Monday) should see the surplus narrow to MYR 15.0 bln from MYR 16.0 bln. Hong Kong February retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to surge to a 45.0% y/y growth rate from -13.6% on a value basis, and to 43.0% y/y from -14.5% on a volume basis. The huge gains expected are due to base effects given the comparison to February 2020, when the start of the pandemic saw sales plunge nearly -47%. Thailand February manufacturing production (Wednesday) is seen bouncing to a 2.0% y/y clip from -2.8%. February trade and current account figures are due Wednesday as well. Indonesia March CPI (Thursday) is estimated to have ticked up to 1.5% y/y from 1.4%.

In Australia, retail sales, the trade report and building approvals fill out the calendar this week. Retail sales (Thursday) are expected to fall -1.1%, matching the preliminary estimate for February after the 0.5% gain in January. The trade surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing slightly to A$9.5 bln in February from the A$10.1 bln surplus in January. Building approvals (Wednesday) are projected to climb 2.0% in February after the -19.4% plunge in January. The next central bank event is the April 6 policy meeting. We expect no change to the current 0.10% rate setting. In March, the RBA left monetary policy unchanged, as had been widely anticipated and maintained guidance that the cash rate won’t be hiked until employment and inflation targets are met.

New Zealand’s calendar is thin, with building permits (Tuesday) highlighting. The next RBNZ meeting is on April 14, with no change to the 0.25% policy setting expected.


Eurozone: a holiday-shortened week is on offer, with Europe essentially closed for the long Easter weekend from Friday to Monday. Virus case numbers are not encouraging — hence, the relaxed lockdown that had been in place across much of the Eurozone has been tightened again in many places with officials clearly eager to prevent too much travel and too many private parties over what usually is a very busy holiday period. Despite the warnings of an intensifying new wave and the risk of new infections, many German regions are preparing to re-open large parts of the services sector after Easter, thanks to a strategy that relies on rapid tests at the entrance to events, or to obtain 24-hour “freedom passes.” Coupled with hopes of accelerated vaccination programs in the second quarter, that seems to be one of the reasons that Germany’s services sector is finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Confidence data for March has been much better than expected and PMI readings suggest an improvement in overall economic activity, as services sector confidence rebounds and manufacturing continues to strengthen. The European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence indicator is the final of the major surveys and is likely to confirm the overall picture, with the headline seen rising to 95.5. That is already more cautious than consensus expectation for a jump to 96.0.

Confidence data also showed an improvement in labour market conditions, with employment starting to pick up — against that background we are looking for a decline in German March sa jobless numbers of -5K (median -3K), which should leave the sa jobless rate unchanged at 6.0%. Data remain heavily impacted by labour market programs and wage support schemes and it will take a long time before markets have tightened to an extent that would put upward pressure on wage growth.

Still, the manufacturing sector is facing supply chain constraints and a sharp rise in input price inflation, which will feed through headline CPI rates in coming months. For now, the expected jump in March numbers, due mainly to base effects from energy prices, has been well advertised. German HICP inflation (Tuesday) is expected to reach 2.0%, which would actually be in line with the ECB’s implicit target. However, with the ECB focusing on keeping spreads in and supporting the smaller economies that rely heavily on tourism and less on the already recovery manufacturing sector, Germany’s headline rate is likely to run above the Eurozone average for a while. Overall, Eurozone HICP is expected to come in considerably lower, although at an estimated 1.4% y/y (median same) it will also be much higher than the 0.9% y/y in February.

The combination of strengthening demand and rising inflation backs the ECB’s decision to front load the purchase schedule, but not increase the overall PEPP envelope, which give the ECB some flexibility to react to the possibility that underlying inflation pressures start to rise. However, as long as economies haven’t re-opened fully, that is unlikely to be the case. Indeed, comments from central bankers including Lane and Villeroy are likely to confirm the ECB’s supportive stance for now.

Data releases also include German import price data for February, which is expected to jump sharply higher, as well as German retail sales and French consumption data for February.

U.K.: incoming BoE policymaker remarks have been reflecting the overall brightening outlook for the UK economy. Monetary Policy Committee member Saunders on Friday that unemployment is not likely to show the extent of rise that was forecast by the central bank in February, upbeat remarks — although lacking the jauntiness displayed by his colleague on the MPC, BoE Chief Economist Haldane, who said that he expects a “rip-roaring” recovery, with consumers chomping at the bit to spend lockdown savings. The preliminary March PMI survey data, released last week, smashed expectations, finding businesses reporting that an increase in consumer demand in anticipation of societal reopening was already under way.

The UK vaccination status, alongside the rate of Covid infection and mortalities, remain encouraging, though there is some evidence of new outbreaks in some areas as a consequence of schools reopening, while vaccine supply issues out of Europe and India will slow progress over the next couple of months. There are concerns about the emergence of new variants that will render existing vaccinations obsolete, or at least less effective, which is the reason behind the UK government’s draconian decision to make it illegal for its citizens to take foreign holidays in the months ahead.

The data calendar this week brings monthly February BoE lending and money supply data (Monday), along with the third estimate on Q4 GDP (Wednesday) and final March PMI data (Thursday). The lending and GDP are too backward looking to have much impact.

As for the final March PMI report on manufacturing and services, the consensus is for unrevised readings. Preliminary March UK PMI data came in much stronger than expected, with the headline composite reading rising to a seven-month high of 56.6, up from 49.6 in February. The median forecast had been for a much more modest improvement, to 50.6. The manufacturing PMI headline came in at a 40-month high at 57.9, improving from 55.1 in the month prior. The services PMI rose to a seven-month high at 56.8, advancing sharply from 49.5, with the sector expanding again after four consecutive months of contraction. This is the first month since last September that both the manufacturing and services sectors have seen a rise in new orders. A rebound in sales into easing lockdown measures, which has come on the back of a so-far successful and rapid Covid vaccination program, drove the improvement. Consumer confidence increased and the survey highlighted a surge in demand for residential property services. It is also notable that service sector activity overtook manufacturing sector activity for the first time in the pandemic era, and the survey also evidenced the release of pent-up demand, with businesses rebuilding capacity in response to rising consumer demand. The data showed the first increase in staffing numbers in the private economy since February 2020, with the rate of job creation at the highest in almost two years. Optimism about the 12 months head rose for a third consecutive month, and stood at the highest level seen since the index began in July 2012. Input costs spiked by the most in over four years, which was accompanied by the highest rate of output charge inflation in over three years.

Switzerland: the data calendar brings a number of key releases, including the March KOF leading indicator (Tuesday), March CPI inflation data, February retail sales and the March manufacturing PMI report (all due Thursday). The KOF and PMI data are expected to show moderate headline improvements, and for the most part won’t capture the recent increase in Covid related lockdown measures in much of continental Europe. As for CPI, the median forecast is for a rise to a -0.3% y/y headline, up from -0.5% y/y in the month prior.

Stocks & ETF Watch List

Tip: Use this section to find stocks and ETFs to add value to your portfolio by increasing the alpha (return) and decreasing beta (beta). Our list is updated weekly to help provide our readers with timely insights. Readers should do their own research before making any investment.

Solid Picks

This group of stock/ETF picks is likely to experience growth and perform well into the near future. The “Fair Value” is a calculation using a discount cash flow analysis to determine the Intrinsic Value. The rank score of a stock, where a score of 1 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key return metrics. Share Value is what they think the price per share should be. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerRankCompanyDividend Yield1-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year ReturnBeta 3-Year5-Year ReturnDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
NOMD22Nomad Foods– 16.30%8.10%1.90%67.50%0.48209.30%– 79
VIPS10Vipshop Holdings– -16.40%11.00%4.80%73.30%0.6147.90%– 93
CBZ15CBIZ– 8.70%23.20%17.00%77.20%0.89231.40%– 95
MLR3Miller Industries1.60%14.20%18.50%12.40%89.80%0.75160.00%7892
TRNS23Transcat– 18.60%53.30%47.20%258.00%0.83424.50%– 61
LOGI4Logitech International0.80%-3.70%7.00%0.80%191.30%0.81630.00%7197
IRBT7iRobot– -9.20%40.40%34.30%66.50%1231.60%– 93
AJG17Arthur J. Gallagher1.50%5.30%2.00%-4.10%95.20%0.88220.00%6460
MUSA2Murphy USA0.70%22.40%16.80%10.60%108.80%0.7142.00%3591
LSTR19Landstar System0.50%5.70%27.60%21.50%62.90%0.87173.30%2683
TSCO13Tractor Supply1.20%12.30%27.30%21.20%208.80%0.73116.00%7099
MOH5Molina Healthcare– 8.00%10.10%4.00%205.50%1.01269.70%– 75
SMG9Scotts Miracle Gro1.00%13.30%21.60%15.40%208.20%0.98282.20%5095
HD16Home Depot2.20%18.30%15.10%8.90%85.30%1.03161.80%7382
TMO12Thermo Fisher Scientific0.20%2.30%-1.20%-7.30%121.10%0.83235.90%4486
BIO1Bio-Rad Laboratories– -1.00%-0.70%-6.90%128.20%0.82332.00%– 96

Income Stock & ETFs Picks

This list of stocks and ETFs are selected for their ability to pay dividends. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerCompanySectorPriceEx-Dividend DateDividend YieldBeta 3-YearConsecutive Div. Growth YearsYTD Return3-Year ReturnDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
ABAllianceBernstein HoldingFinancial Services$39.552/19/20219.80%1.23120.20%96.60%9899
ABRArbor Realty TrustReal Estate$15.403/2/20218.60%1.1810.80%136.80%9887
AFLAflacFinancial Services$51.562/16/20212.60%1.110+16.80%25.70%9292
APAMArtisan Partners AssetFinancial Services$52.842/11/20215.80%1.317.50%112.00%90100
AQNAlgonquin PowerUtilities$15.893/30/20213.90%0.818-3.50%84.00%8685
BCEBCECommunication Services$45.743/12/20216.10%0.710+8.50%29.10%9277
BGBungeConsumer Defensive$79.285/18/20212.50%0.87021.70%20.80%9679
BKEBuckleConsumer Cyclical$41.004/14/20213.20%0.99040.40%154.30%8994
BMOBank of MontrealFinancial Services$89.944/30/20213.70%1.01919.60%36.80%9690
BPMPBP Midstream PartnersEnergy$12.601/27/202111.00%0.83222.10%-4.30%9287
BSMBlack Stone MineralsEnergy$8.852/12/20217.90%0.69034.90%-33.10%8686
BTGB2GoldBasic Materials$4.563/5/20213.50%0.311-17.80%68.00%9797
BTIBritish American TobaccoConsumer Defensive$39.3912/23/20217.60%0.6705.10%-29.30%9482
CAGConagra BrandsConsumer Defensive$38.501/28/20212.90%0.4617.00%15.00%8884
CBDCompanhia BrasileiraConsumer Cyclical$5.493/8/20212.70%0.95036.20%14.50%9296
CHCOCity HoldingFinancial Services$83.081/14/20212.80%0.88920.40%31.30%9085
CMCanadian Imperial BankFinancial Services$99.523/26/20214.70%0.88917.80%34.30%9577
CODICompass Diversified HldgsIndustrials$23.471/14/20216.10%0.79022.70%77.90%9797
CSCOCisco SystemsTechnology$52.574/5/20212.80%1.04918.40%30.80%9284
CTRECareTrust REITReal Estate$23.793/30/20214.50%1.1667.30%104.90%8899
DHTDHT HoldingsEnergy$6.512/17/202116.60%0.6225.50%135.30%98100
DKLDelek Logistics PartnersEnergy$36.852/1/20219.90%1.19718.00%92.00%9392
DOCPhysicians Realty TrustReal Estate$18.043/31/20215.10%0.8502.70%42.90%9291
ELPCia Paranaense De EnergiaUtilities$1.234/1/20217.90%1.154-14.00%70.20%9795
ENIAEnel AmericasUtilities$8.521/21/20215.80%0.7734.30%-12.70%9888
EPDEnterprise Prods PartnersEnergy$23.001/28/20217.80%0.9310+20.00%17.50%9399
FAFFirst American FinancialFinancial Services$57.023/5/20213.20%0.9210+11.40%6.50%9185
FRGFranchise GroupConsumer Cyclical$34.243/30/20214.40%0.89112.40%273.40%9490
FTAIFortress TransportationIndustrials$29.243/11/20214.50%1.05026.00%137.30%9980
GISGeneral MillsConsumer Defensive$60.974/8/20213.40%0.414.60%51.10%8684
GTYGetty RealtyReal Estate$28.683/24/20215.40%1.1685.60%37.90%9387
HCSGHealthcare Services GroupHealthcare$28.492/25/20212.90%0.9310+2.10%-27.50%9794
HTGCHercules CapFinancial Services$16.103/5/20218.00%0.86214.20%81.90%8697
IMOSChipMOS TECHNOLOGIESTechnology$31.187/1/20203.90%0.65228.00%82.20%9397
IPGInterpublic Gr of CosCommunication Services$28.442/26/20213.80%1.14822.20%42.90%9188
IRMIron MountainReal Estate$37.283/12/20216.60%0.8110+28.60%50.00%9091
ISBCInvestors BancorpFinancial Services$14.732/9/20213.80%1.06841.10%22.60%9785
KREFKKR Real Estate FinanceReal Estate$18.953/30/20219.10%0.8305.70%24.20%9277
KRNYKearny FinancialFinancial Services$12.613/2/20212.90%0.77520.40%4.10%9481
LFCChina Life Insurance CoFinancial Services$10.377/6/20205.00%0.841-6.20%-20.50%9682
MGPMGM Growth PropertiesReal Estate$32.743/30/20216.10%1.1444.60%51.30%9085
MMPMagellan MidstreamEnergy$43.802/4/20219.40%0.910+5.80%-6.50%9676
MPWMedical Properties TrustReal Estate$21.353/17/20215.30%1.098-0.70%102.50%8682
MRKMerck & CoHealthcare$77.393/12/20213.40%0.6810+-4.60%56.40%9491
NEMNewmontBasic Materials$61.503/3/20213.60%0.3313.70%67.00%9382
NHINational Health InvestorsReal Estate$76.133/30/20215.80%1.2110+10.10%37.60%8998
NNNNational Retail PropsReal Estate$44.391/28/20214.70%0.9810+9.90%36.10%8691
NTBBank of N.T ButterfieldFinancial Services$38.132/23/20214.60%1.3024.00%-2.20%9788
NUSNu Skin EnterprisesConsumer Defensive$53.122/25/20212.90%0.7410+-2.00%-21.00%9985
OCSLOaktree Specialty LendingFinancial Services$6.163/12/20217.80%0.76212.60%83.50%8878
ORANOrangeCommunication Services$12.4112/3/20205.70%0.5704.60%-14.60%9987
ORIOld Republic IntlFinancial Services$22.223/8/20214.00%1.0510+20.00%30.40%9799
PBCTPeople’s United FinlFinancial Services$18.031/29/20214.00%1.1210+41.30%11.30%9983
PNWPinnacle West CapitalUtilities$80.221/29/20214.10%0.7791.40%14.30%9682
PRKPark NationalFinancial Services$134.472/18/20213.10%0.89329.40%48.60%9083
PSXPPhillips 66 PartnersEnergy$31.001/28/202111.30%0.94721.20%-16.10%9797
RGRSturm Ruger & CoIndustrials$67.463/11/20214.20%0.3614.70%55.20%9896
RILYB. Riley FinancialFinancial Services$54.463/9/20212.60%1.11230.90%234.60%8899
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaFinancial Services$93.114/21/20213.70%0.87914.60%36.50%9991
SAFTSafety Insurance GroupFinancial Services$85.163/4/20214.20%0.8410.50%24.00%8991
SCUSculptor CapitalFinancial Services$21.492/24/202113.40%1.09056.20%-3.10%9994
SJMJM SmuckerConsumer Defensive$128.502/11/20212.80%0.3610+12.00%15.70%9391
STAGStag IndustrialReal Estate$34.203/30/20214.20%1.05910.00%70.00%8698
STWDStarwood Property TrustReal Estate$25.253/30/20217.60%1.05030.80%61.20%9493
TAKTakeda PharmaceuticalHealthcare$19.189/29/20204.40%0.6135.40%-17.40%8794
TDToronto-Dominion BankFinancial Services$65.934/8/20213.80%0.9410+18.10%31.90%9393
TMToyota MotorConsumer Cyclical$153.379/29/20202.80%0.621-0.80%30.10%9982
TRTNTriton InternationalIndustrials$57.173/11/20214.00%1.07419.00%122.70%8898
TSLXSixth Street SpecialtyFinancial Services$20.973/24/20217.80%0.6719.30%72.50%9194
UBSIUnited BanksharesFinancial Services$39.683/11/20213.50%1.1510+23.50%27.30%8780
VIRTVirtu FinancialFinancial Services$30.282/26/20213.20%0.08021.30%5.00%9187
WPCW.P. CareyReal Estate$71.363/30/20215.90%0.9810+1.10%39.00%8879

Dividend Growth Stocks

TickerCompanySectorPriceEx-Dividend DateDividend YieldBeta 3-YearConsecutive Div. Growth YearsYTD Return3-Year ReturnDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
AEMAgnico Eagle MinesBasic Materials$58.862/26/20212.40%0.235-16.00%44.70%8077
AEM.TOAgnico Eagle MinesBasic Materials$73.992/26/20212.40%0.155-17.00%40.10%8077
AFGAmerican Financial GroupFinancial Services$116.151/14/20211.70%1.3110+33.30%19.00%5366
AGMFederal AgriculturalFinancial Services$101.203/15/20213.50%0.97937.50%33.10%7177
ALLAllstateFinancial Services$116.033/3/20212.80%0.9310+6.30%30.80%8488
APHAmphenolTechnology$66.493/22/20211.70%1.067– 58.40%9088
AUTLYAustalIndustrials$19.653/16/20213.40%0.153-4.70%56.10%– – 
BAHBooz Allen HamiltonIndustrials$79.762/11/20211.90%0.718-8.10%118.60%7583
CBOECboe Global MarketsFinancial Services$97.722/25/20211.70%0.6710+5.40%-11.20%7980
CIHHFChina Merchants Bank CoFinancial Services$8.297/2/20202.00%0.3141.50%102.00%3866
CIHKYChina Merchants Bank CoFinancial Services$39.327/1/20202.20%0.8425.70%108.80%3866
CIVBCivista BancsharesFinancial Services$22.881/15/20212.10%1.31931.30%6.90%4080
CRHCRHBasic Materials$46.393/18/20212.50%1.07111.10%48.80%9472
CWBCCommunity West BancsharesFinancial Services$13.042/8/20211.80%0.27044.50%22.00%– – 
DKSDick’s Sporting GoodsConsumer Cyclical$78.173/18/20211.90%1.09639.70%144.10%8799
EHMEFgoeasyFinancial Services$98.703/25/20212.10%0.57630.40%268.00%9196
EQUEYEquatorial EnergiaUtilities$3.867/9/20201.60%0.441-14.60%-3.40%– – 
EWBCEast West BancorpFinancial Services$74.182/8/20211.80%1.25347.00%26.30%1865
FXNCFirst NationalFinancial Services$18.002/25/20212.70%0.2337.20%2.70%– – 
GABCGerman American BancorpFinancial Services$47.502/9/20211.80%0.93844.40%52.10%6482
GSY.TOgoeasyFinancial Services$124.683/25/20212.10%1.3629.70%259.10%9196
HIIHuntington Ingalls IndusIndustrials$203.162/25/20212.20%0.85819.90%-18.10%8996
HKMPYHikma PharmaceuticalsHealthcare$59.683/18/20211.70%0.174-11.90%97.10%– – 
HWBKHawthorn BancsharesFinancial Services$21.513/12/20212.40%1.129-1.20%26.30%5849
IBTXIndependent Bank GrFinancial Services$74.112/10/20211.60%1.35719.10%10.70%4880
LKFNLakeland FinancialFinancial Services$71.881/22/20211.90%0.95734.90%66.60%4876
MDCM.D.C. HoldingsConsumer Cyclical$58.622/9/20212.30%1.34431.10%170.10%9498
MGRCMcGrath RentCorpIndustrials$82.054/14/20212.10%1.1310+23.00%64.20%9797
NEMNewmontBasic Materials$61.503/3/20213.60%0.3313.70%67.00%9382
NOCNorthrop GrummanIndustrials$319.022/26/20211.80%0.7610+5.20%-5.60%6792
NRIMNorthrim BanCorpFinancial Services$43.873/10/20213.40%1.2410+30.30%40.70%8592
NXSTNexstar Media GroupCommunication Services$141.852/11/20212.00%1.5730.60%131.00%81100
PKBKParke BancorpFinancial Services$20.521/29/20213.10%1.11632.70%31.30%9685
RILYB. Riley FinancialFinancial Services$54.463/9/20212.60%1.11230.90%234.60%8899
SBFGSB Financial GroupFinancial Services$18.952/11/20212.20%0.5674.30%9.10%6290
SFBCSound Financial BancorpFinancial Services$42.122/9/20211.60%0.36733.80%24.00%– – 
TROWT. Rowe Price GrFinancial Services$178.133/15/20212.40%1.2110+18.40%78.70%7299
VNNVFVonoviaReal Estate$65.584/19/20213.10%0.111-12.50%47.30%6276
WTFCWintrust FinancialFinancial Services$78.982/10/20211.60%1.32729.90%-2.40%1757


TickerCompanyCategory GroupDividend YieldBeta 3-YearExpense Ratio3-Year Return
DNLWisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Quality Dividend Growth FundInternational Equity1.80%0.850.58%39.10%
NOBLProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETFU.S. Equity2.10%0.910.35%40.10%
SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETFU.S. Equity1.50%0.980.15%46.10%
VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF SharesU.S. Equity1.90%0.90.06%44.60%

Dogs of the Dow

This list of DOW stocks based on H. G. Schneider’s Article in the Journal of Finance in 1951 that used price-earnings ratio. The general idea is that blue-chip companies that pay a dividend are more likely to withstand an economic downturn. The dividend score of a stock, where a score of 99 is best. This algorithm compares a company to its peers and considers the consistency of key dividend metrics as well as their direction of change. The overall score, which 99 is the best) is computed from the percentile rank of valuation, growth, financial strength, efficiency, momentum, and dividends. The score also considers the past performance of a stock in each of the component areas relative to peers.

TickerCompanySectorDividend Yield3-Year ReturnBeta 3-YearDividends Ratings ScoreOverall Ratings Score
DOWDowBasic Materials4.70%– 1.357566
KOCoca-ColaConsumer Defensive3.40%22.80%0.719340
VZVerizon CommunicationsCommunication Services4.50%28.30%0.487758
WBAWalgreens Boots AllianceHealthcare3.90%-24.90%0.828664
XOMExxon MobilEnergy6.40%-18.20%1.046970

Economic Data Calendar

The last week of March culminates with the March Jobs report, where we expect a solid 500k nonfarm payroll increase and a drop in the jobless rate to 6.1% from 6.2%. Construction spending is expected to fall sharply in February with a big weather hit, while consumer confidence climbs in March with support from another round of stimulus checks. The ISM should ease modestly into March from a 2-year high, while the ISM-NMI continues to climb.

Week of March 29

The shipping bottleneck in the Suez canal will aggregate the widespread capacity constraints that are already hobbling U.S. economic growth, both via direct disruptions to shipping, and via delays in commitments for future shipping that will extend for months. The container shortage in Asia will be aggravated by delays, hence prompting continued shortages of imported goods in the U.S. retail sector. The U.S. is reportedly exporting empty containers to Asia so they can receive them more rapidly, hence disrupting U.S. export capacity as well. The vehicle sector faces semiconductor shortages that will hamper both assemblies and sales through the first half of 2021, though early reports suggest that vehicle sales were solid in at least February. The petrol-chemical complex is still reeling from disruptions with the February power failures and Texas freeze, and the drilling moratorium will increasingly disrupt activity in this critical growth engine for the economy.

The result is that we may see more upward Q2 pressure on prices than “real” spending than we had assumed, both with regard to consumer goods and for housing. In particular, we are poised for big real estate price gains in the seasonally important spring season, as homes are in historic short supply, alongside climbing demand. Stimulus deposits may place less upward pressure on “real” spending than on prices overall, and on home prices in particular. Most of the U.S. economy has already climbed well above pre-pandemic highs, and disruptions from events like the Suez fiasco and the Texas freeze will be bigger than they would have been if most major sectors of the economy still had some slack.

Consumer Confidence: 96.0

Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 96.0 from 91.3 in February, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April of 2020. This compares to an 18-year high of 137.9 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 25.3 in February of 2009. We expect the present situation index to improve to 97.9 from 92.0 in February and a 7-year low of 68.4 in May of 2020, versus a 19-year high of 176.0 in August of 2019 and a recession-low of 20.2 in December of 2009. The expectations index should rise to 94.7 in March from 91.2, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 27.3 in February of 2009. We expect the 1-year inflation measure to tick down to 6.2% from 6.3%. All the confidence measures climbed into late-Q1 with vaccine distributions, stimulus deposits, and the easing of coronavirus restrictions, following a slight downward tilt through the holidays. We may get an extra March boost for the Conference Board measure given that it is a late-month reading that will capture actual March stimulus deposits, and not just the January distributions.

Initial Jobless Claims: 670k

Initial jobless claims are expected to ease to 670k, following last week’s drop to 684k from 781k. The unwind of initial claims from the holiday peak has generally proven quite slow likely thanks to elevated job churn, though last week’s big drop was encouraging. Claims are expected to average 715k in March, after averages of 789k in February, 852k in January, and 825k in December. The 781k BLS survey week reading follows prior survey week figures of 834k in February, 875k in January, and 892k in December. We assume a 500k March payroll rise after the 379k February gain.

Continuing claims fell by -264k to 3,870k in the week of March 13, following an upwardly revised 4,134k figure. We expect continuing claims to fall -170k to the 3,700k area for the week ending on March 20. We expect continuing claims to extend their downtrend through Q2. We saw continuing claims to fall -549k between the February and March BLS survey weeks. We saw prior drops of -366k in February, -537k in January, -767k in December, -1,734k in November, -4,924k in October, -1,745k in September, -2,459k in August, -2,280k in July, and -1,610k in June.

Construction Spending: -1.0%

Construction spending is expected to fall -1.0% in February after a 1.7% January increase, thanks to a big weather hit in the south, midwest, and northeast. We expect a -0.6% private residential construction decrease after a 2.5% January rise, a -1.0% decline for public construction after a 1.7% January bounce, and a -1.5% private nonresidential drop after a 0.4% January increase. We expect construction spending to grow at a 12.0% pace in Q1, following rates of 18.6% in Q4 and 10.9% in Q3. Construction hours-worked from the jobs report fell -3.6% in February, and construction jobs fell -61k. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply since Q2 of 2020 with an array of new 14-year highs across various metrics in recent months. This should translate to a lagged climb in construction spending into 2021.

ISM/ISM-NMI: 60.0/57.5

The ISM index is expected to ease to 60.0 from a 2-year high of 60.8 in February, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April last year, a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018, and a low from the last recession of 34.5 in December of 2008. The all-time low for the measure is 30.3 in June of 1980. The ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.5 from 55.3 in February, versus a 17-month high of 58.1 in July, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April, a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November of 2008. Producer sentiment has remained firm into 2021 as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, with an added lift into March from expanding vaccine availability and two rounds of stimulus distributions in January and March.

Employment: 500k

We expect a 500k March nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 379k in February and 166k in January. We assume a 40k factory jobs increase in March, after a 21k February rise. We assume the jobless rate will tick down to 6.1% from 6.2% in February, and 6.3% in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rebound 1.0% after a -0.5% February dip, with the workweek rises to 34.8 from a weather-depressed 34.6 in February. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise just 0.1% in March, as we further unwind the December distortion that left a 1.0% earnings surge with a big drop in low-wage workers. The y/y wage gain should slip to 4.5% from 5.3% due mostly to an easier comparison. We previously saw a 3.5% expansion-high pace for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. We expect the payroll rebound to gain steam in 2021 following the winter lull, thanks to stimulus deposits and vaccines.

 26 Mar 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Trade  FEB-$86.7B A -$85.1B-$84.6B R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Exports  FEB$130.1B A $135.3B R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Imports  FEB$216.9B A $219.9B R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Wholesale Inventories  FEB$681.1B A $677.8B R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Retail Inventories  FEB$625.9B A $625.8B R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States Personal Income  FEB-7.1% A -7.0%10.1% R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States PCE  FEB-1.0% A -0.7%3.4% R
 26 Mar 08:30 United States PCE Chain Price M/M  FEB0.2% A  0.3%
 26 Mar 08:30 United States PCE Chain Price ex-F&E M/M  FEB0.1% A 0.2% R
 26 Mar 10:00 United States Michigan Sentiment Final  MAR84.9 A 83.5 83.0
 27 Mar 05:30 Eurozone ECB’s Lane speaks
 27 Mar 21:00 Europe Daylight Saving Time Begins – Set clocks ahead one hour
 29 Mar 00:00 Malaysia Trade Balance MYR  FEB 15.0B  16.0B
 29 Mar 00:00 Malaysia Exports-CC Y/Y  FEB   6.6%
 29 Mar 00:00 Malaysia Imports-CC Y/Y  FEB   1.3%
 29 Mar 02:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Prices sa (M/M)  MAR   0.7%
 29 Mar 02:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Prices nsa (Y/Y)  MAR   6.9%
 29 Mar 04:30 United Kingdom BoE Net Consumer Credit sa (Gbp)  FEB   -2.4B
 29 Mar 04:30 United Kingdom BoE Net Mortgage Lending sa (Gbp)  FEB   2.8B
 29 Mar 04:30 United Kingdom BoE Mortgage Approvals sa (Number)  FEB   99.0K
 29 Mar 04:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply sa (M/M) – Final  FEB   0.7%
 29 Mar 04:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (Y/Y) – Final  FEB   13.3%
 29 Mar 10:30 United States Dallas Fed Index  MAR 15.0  17.2
 29 Mar 11:00 Washington Fed’s Waller to speak at Peterson Institute
 29 Mar 19:30 Japan Unemployment Rate  FEB 3.0%  2.9%
 29 Mar 19:30 Japan Job Off/Seekers Ratio  FEB 1.10  1.10
 29 Mar 19:50 Japan Large Retailer Sales Y/Y  FEB -5.0%  -7.2%
 29 Mar 19:50 Japan Total Retail Sales Y/Y  FEB -2.0%  -2.4%
 29 Mar 19:50 Japan Trade Balance 1st 10 NSA JPY  MAR   0.7B
 30 Mar 03:00 Germany Import Price Index (M/M)  FEB   1.9%
 30 Mar 03:00 Germany Import Price Index (Y/Y)  FEB 1.1% 1.1% -1.2%
 30 Mar 03:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) Preliminary  MAR 0.8%  -0.1%
 30 Mar 03:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator  MAR  104.3 102.7
 30 Mar 03:00 Hungary Unemployment Rate  FEB   4.3%
 30 Mar 04:00 Italy Producer Price Index (M/M)  FEB   -1.4%
 30 Mar 04:00 Italy Producer Price Index (Y/Y)  FEB   0.3%
 30 Mar 04:30 Hong Kong Retail Sales Value Y/Y  FEB 45.0%  -13.6%
 30 Mar 04:30 Hong Kong Retail Sales Volume Y/Y  FEB 43.0%  -14.5%
 30 Mar 05:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence  MAR 95.5 96.0 93.4
 30 Mar 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence  MAR -10.8  -10.8 P
 30 Mar 05:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence  MAR -2.5  -3.3
 30 Mar 05:00 Eurozone Services Confidence  MAR -14.0  -17.1
 30 Mar 05:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Preliminary  MAR   -0.2%
 30 Mar 05:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Preliminary  MAR   1.0%
 30 Mar 05:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (M/M) – Preliminary  MAR   0.1%
 30 Mar 05:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (Y/Y) – Preliminary  MAR   0.6%
 30 Mar 08:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Preliminary  MAR   0.6%
 30 Mar 08:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Preliminary  MAR 2.0% 2.0% 1.6%
 30 Mar 08:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Preliminary  MAR   0.7%
 30 Mar 08:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Preliminary  MAR 1.7% 1.7% 1.3%
 30 Mar 08:00 Brazil PPI Y/Y  FEB   21.5%
 30 Mar 08:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings M/M  JAN   0.2%
 30 Mar 08:55 United States Redbook 03/27    -17.6%
 30 Mar 09:00 Washington Fed’s Quarles discusses the Financial Stability Board
 30 Mar 09:00 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (nsa)  JAN 242.5  240.8
 30 Mar 09:00 United States FHFA Home Price Index  JAN   313.5
 30 Mar 10:00 United States Consumer Confidence  MAR 96.0 96.5 91.3
 30 Mar 14:30 New York Fed’s Williams in moderated discussion
 30 Mar 17:00 Chile Central Bank Overnight Rate     0.50%
 30 Mar 19:00 South Korea Industrial Production Y/Y  FEB 1.0%  7.5%
 30 Mar 19:50 Japan Industrial Production M/M SA (prelim)  FEB -1.0%  4.3%
 30 Mar 21:00 China PMI Manufacturing (CFLP)  MAR 51.0  50.6
 30 Mar 21:30 Australia Building Approvals  FEB 2.0%  -19.4%
 30 Mar 23:00 Singapore Bank Credit Y/Y  FEB   -1.1%
 30 Mar 23:30 Thailand Manufacturing Production Y/Y  FEB 2.0%  -2.8%
 31 Mar 01:00 Japan Housing Starts Y/Y  FEB -6.0%  -3.1%
 31 Mar 01:00 Japan Construction Orders Y/Y  FEB   14.1%
 31 Mar 02:00 United Kingdom GDP (Q/Q) – 3rd Release  Q4  1.0% 1.0%
 31 Mar 02:00 United Kingdom GDP (Y/Y) – 3rd Release  Q4  -7.8% -7.8%
 31 Mar 02:00 United Kingdom Current Account (Gbp)  Q4   -15.7B
 31 Mar 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Prelim  MAR   UNCH
 31 Mar 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Prelim  MAR 1.2%  0.8%
 31 Mar 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Prelim  MAR   UNCH
 31 Mar 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Prelim  MAR 0.9%  0.6%
 31 Mar 02:45 France Consumer Spending sa (M/M)  FEB 2.1%  -4.6%
 31 Mar 02:45 France Consumer Spending sa (Y/Y)  FEB   UNCH
 31 Mar 02:45 France Producer Price Index (M/M)  FEB   1.2%
 31 Mar 02:45 France Producer Price Index (Y/Y)  FEB   0.4%
 31 Mar 03:00 Hungary Producer Price Index (Y/Y)  FEB   6.6%
 31 Mar 03:00 Turkey Trade Balance USD  FEB   -3.0B
 31 Mar 03:30 Thailand Trade Balance-BOP USD  FEB   1.9B
 31 Mar 03:30 Thailand Exports-BOP USD Y/Y  FEB   -0.3%
 31 Mar 03:30 Thailand Imports-BOP USD Y/Y  FEB   -6.9%
 31 Mar 03:30 Thailand Current Account USD  FEB   -0.7B
 31 Mar 03:55 Germany Unemployment Change sa  MAR -5K -3K 9.0K
 31 Mar 03:55 Germany Unemployment Rate sa  MAR 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
 31 Mar 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Flash Estimate  MAR 1.4%  0.9%
 31 Mar 06:00 Ireland Unemployment Rate  MAR   5.8%
 31 Mar 07:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 03/26    -2.5%
 31 Mar 08:00 Brazil Unemployment Rate  FEB   13.9%
 31 Mar 08:00 Chile Unemployment Rate  FEB   10.1%
 31 Mar 08:15 United States ADP Employment Survey  MAR 400K 525K 117K
 31 Mar 08:30 Canada GDP by Industry  JAN 0.7%  0.1%
 31 Mar 08:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index  FEB   2.0%
 31 Mar 08:30 Canada Raw Materials Price Index  FEB   5.7%
 31 Mar 09:00 Chile Retail Sales Y/Y  FEB   5.8%
 31 Mar 09:00 Chile Industrial Production Y/Y  FEB   -2.4%
 31 Mar 09:45 United States Chicago PMI  MAR 60.0 60.3 59.5
 31 Mar 10:00 United States Pending Home Sales Index  FEB 114.0  122.8
 31 Mar 10:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks 03/26    1.9M
 31 Mar 10:30 United States EIA Gasoline Stocks 03/26    0.2M
 31 Mar 10:30 United States EIA Distillate Stocks 03/26    3.8M
 31 Mar 11:00 Colombia Unemployment Rate  FEB   17.3%
 31 Mar 15:00 United States Agriculture Prices  FEB 2.5%  -1.4%
 31 Mar 19:50 Japan Tankan Index (Large Manufacturers)  MAR 2  -10
 31 Mar 19:50 Japan Tankan Index (Large Non-Manufacturers)  MAR -3  -5
 31 Mar 19:50 Japan FX Reserves M/M USD  MAR   -9.6B
 31 Mar 20:00 South Korea Exports-CC Y/Y  MAR   9.5%
 31 Mar 20:00 South Korea Imports-CC Y/Y  MAR   13.9%
 31 Mar 20:00 South Korea Trade Balance-CC  MAR $4.0B $2.6B R
 31 Mar 20:30 Japan PMI Manufacturing (Jibun Bank/Markit)  MAR 51.7  51.4
 31 Mar 21:30 Australia Retail Trade  FEB -1.1%  0.5%
 31 Mar 21:30 Australia Balance on Goods and Services  FEB A$9.5B  A$10.1B
 31 Mar 21:45 China PMI Manufacturing (Caixin/Markit)  MAR 51.5  50.9
 01 Apr 00:00 Indonesia CPI Y/Y  MAR 1.5%  1.4%
 01 Apr 01:00 Japan Registered Auto Sales Y/Y  MAR   -2.2%
 01 Apr 02:00 Russia Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR   51.5
 01 Apr 02:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (M/M)  MAR   0.2%
 01 Apr 02:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  MAR  -0.3% -0.5%
 01 Apr 02:30 Switzerland Retail Sales (real Y/Y)  FEB   -5.3%
 01 Apr 03:00 Germany Retail Sales (M/M)  FEB 2.1%  -4.5%
 01 Apr 03:00 Germany Retail Sales (Y/Y)  FEB   -8.7%
 01 Apr 03:30 Switzerland SVME Manufacturing PMI  MAR   61.3
 01 Apr 03:45 Italy Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR   56.9
 01 Apr 03:50 France Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR 58.8  58.8 P
 01 Apr 03:55 Germany Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR 66.6  66.6 P
 01 Apr 04:00 Eurozone Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR 62.4  62.4 P
 01 Apr 04:30 United Kingdom CIPS Manufacturing PMI  MAR  57.9 55.1
 01 Apr 07:30 United States Challenger Layoffs  MAR   34.5K
 01 Apr 08:00 Brazil Industrial Production Y/Y  FEB   2.0%
 01 Apr 08:30 United States Initial Claims 03/27  670K 690K 684K
 01 Apr 08:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims 03/20  3,700K  3,870K
 01 Apr 08:30 Canada Building Permits  FEB   8.2%
 01 Apr 09:00 Brazil Markit Manufacturing PMI  MAR   58.4
 01 Apr 09:45 United States Langer Consumer Comfort Index 03/28    49.1
 01 Apr 09:45 United States Markit PMI – Manufacturing  MAR   59.0
 01 Apr 10:00 United States ISM (Mfg)  MAR 60.0 61.0 60.8
 01 Apr 10:00 United States ISM (Mfg) – Prices  MAR 86.0  86.0
 01 Apr 10:00 United States Construction Spending  FEB -1.0% -0.9% 1.7%
 01 Apr 10:00 Brazil Trade Balance USD  MAR   1152M
 01 Apr 10:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Stocks 03/26    -36B
 01 Apr 11:00 Peru CPI Y/Y  MAR   2.4%
 01 Apr 12:00 Russia GDP (Y/Y)  Q4   -3.4%
 01 Apr 13:00 Pennsylvania Fed’s Harker discusses Community Banks and Fintech
 01 Apr  United States Domestic Auto Sales  MAR 2.5M 2.6M 2.4M
 01 Apr  United States Domestic Light Truck Sales  MAR 9.9M 9.9M 9.5M
 02 Apr  Europe Good Friday – Eurozone/U.K./Scandi/Swiss Markets Closed
 02 Apr  North America Good Friday – U.S. Treasury market early close, NYSE Closed, Fed Open, CAN Markets Closed
 02 Apr 03:30 Thailand FX Reserves USD  MAR    $253.9B
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls  MAR 500K 613K 379K
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Private Nonfarm Payrolls  MAR 490K 560K 465K
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Manufacturing Payrolls  MAR 40K 35K 21K
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Hourly Earnings  MAR 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Average Workweek  MAR 34.8 34.7 34.6
 02 Apr 08:30 United States Unemployment Rate  MAR 6.1% 6.0% 6.2%
 02 Apr 11:00 Atlanta Fed’s Bostic in NBER conference on inequality
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