AlphaBetaStock’s Report (Premium Edition) 01-10-2022

Tip: Use this as a quick guide on the short-term direction (1-2 weeks) and long-term (1.5-5 years) of key markets. It is not a signal to buy or sell, just to show the trend. This is a quick cheat sheet to know the trend and help understand what is happening with the markets in the short term. I started making this section years ago because once had a client that would call me nearly every day asking the direction of the markets.

S&P 5004677.04−0.40%−19.004707.954662.74BearNeutral
Crude (WTI)78.633-0.27%-0.21679.42678.159NeutralBull
10 Year1.78%1.19%0.0211.8081.767BullBull
US Dollar Index96.0250.30%0.28696.03595.739NeutralBear
VIX21.1912.95%2.4321.219.47Strong BullBull

Tip: Use this section to know the performance of various sectors, weight portfolios, or look for trades. Modern portfolio theory stresses the importance of diversification, but recently several sectors like technology have outperformed others like utilities. This is also a way to narrow the sectors to find investment opportunities.

Sector Name5-Day Return1-Month Return3-Month ReturnYTD ReturnYTD Return vs S&P 5003-Year Return5-Year ReturnTrend
 Basic Materials-1.20%2.20%9.50%-1.20%0.70%81.60%86.10%Bull
 Communication Services-2.20%-1.40%-7.40%-2.20%-0.30%75.20%42.30%Neutral
 Consumer Cyclical-3.00%-4.00%5.00%-3.00%-1.10%119.10%169.40%Bear
 Consumer Defensive0.40%6.40%10.70%0.40%2.20%63.50%69.10%Bull
 Energy10.20%7.90%11.30%10.20%12.10%18.20%-2.40%Strong Bull
 Financial Services4.60%4.30%6.00%4.60%6.50%78.10%87.20%Bull
 Real Estate-4.30%0.70%8.00%-4.30%-2.40%64.30%59.60%Bull

Stocks & ETF Watch List

Tip: Use this section to find stocks and ETFs to add value to your portfolio by increasing the alpha (return) and decreasing beta (beta). Our list is updated monthly to help provide our readers with timely insights. Readers should do their own research before making any investment. In order to make our report easier to read, we are now including the stocks as lists for readers in separate posts.

All stock/ETF picks are updated and are now on one page. Click here to view them.

  • Inflation Stock Picks: List of stocks that we think should perform better in a rising inflation environment. 
  • Auto Parts Stock Picks: Auto parts companies are likely to see their stocks rise as the average age of cars and light trucks increased from 11.9 years in January 2017 to 12.2 years in January 2021, according to new data from IHS Markit. Below are the top auto parts companies that investors should buy now before the profits roll in. 
  • Solid Picks: This group of stock/ETF picks is likely to experience growth and perform well into the near future. 
  • Dividend Stocks: List of stocks that have excellent dividends and business performance. 
  • Dividend Growth Stocks: List of stocks that have a history of growing dividends. 
  • Dividend ETFs Picks: This list of ETFs is selected for their ability to pay dividends. 
  • Dogs of the Dow: This list of DOW stocks based on H. G. Schneider’s Article in the Journal of Finance in 1951 that used the price-earnings ratio. The general idea is that blue-chip companies that pay a dividend are more likely to withstand an economic downturn. 

Key Drivers for the Week of Jan. 10

TIP – This is a brief bullet-point summary. It is a tool that gives investors and financial a fast and simple list of what to watch for and talking points for the week.

  • Rising Omicron Cases
  • Rising Inflation
  • Multiple Fed Talk Tuesday & Thursday (Expect them to try to settled down markets)
  • Thursday January 13 – Producer Price Index (MoM) (December) (8:30PM)
  • Friday January 14 – Retail Sales (MoM) (December) (8:30PM)

Week Ahead: Will Rising Rates Drop Equities and the Stock Market?

Last week was very turbulent because the Fed minutes triggered a sector rotation favoring value stocks, particularly banks, insurers, and car manufacturers. These are buybacks at a bargain price, considering the December portfolio grooming. 2022 is expected to be as volatile as 2021 if not more. Bottom line is that If the Fed raises rates, expect an immediate dip in equities and real estate.

The good news is that the surge of the Omnicron Covid cases is having little impact on the market. This is due to the fact that the symptoms are generally very light.

The release of minutes from Wednesday’s Fed meeting reminded me that the beginning of the year wasn’t as quiet as it seemed. However, there really wasn’t anything new except that investors are reminded of a Fed rate increase due to rising inflation. The US central banks have been well aware of increasing rates steadily to reduce inflationary damage and keep the labor market inefficient.

Vice Chairs of Blackstone Advisory Partners ($649 Billion AUM), Joe Zidle, and Byron Wein released a note to clients regarding their expectations for 2022.

Blackstone expects that the S&P 500 will not make any progress in 2022. They expect value stocks to outperform growth and, in line with other analysts, expect a correction not exceeding 20% during the year.

Blackstone executives believe that inflation will continue to rise through 2022 and end the year at no lower than 4.5%. According to them, inflation will be the dominant theme in 2022 due to climbing rent prices and rising wages.

Europe is also discussing inflation. The first estimate for December shows a 5% annual price rise, higher than the forecast (4.8%). The December employment numbers in the United States surprised many: very few new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate dropped again.

Since the start of the year, the euro/dollar pair has remained relatively stable at the pivot point of USD 1.13 per 1 EUR. Traders have a slightly higher chance of economic slowdown due to the rate policy in their strategies.

Rising Bond Yields?

The Fed minutes were released, pushing the yield on US 10-year debt up to 1.72%. This is a rational response even though actual rates are still firmly in the negative.

The German Bund is also in good shape, even though its yield on 10-year US debt has risen to 1.72% from -0.33% today to -0.07% in just two weeks.

Given the US monetary development, this is quite logical. A good Fed analyst will tell you that the short-term interest rate curve almost predicts a rate increase in March, three 25 basis points increases in 2022, and a policy rate of 1.75% within three years. This will have a negative effect on equities which we explain below.

Macro Takeaways & Next Week

Most of Wall Street and we don’t think equities will perform very well, and investors will most likely move toward value away from growth. More money will likely be transferred out of equity markets as bond yields increase in safer interest rate investments such as CDs and bonds.

The current S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.27%, significantly lower than the long-term average of 1.86%. A critical point to watch is 1.75% which I think money managers will start making moves.

The European unemployment rate for November and the US Consumer Price Index and Production Index will be released this week.

Crypto (Long Term Bullish)

The cryptocurrency market has been in a bleak mood lately. After dropping nearly 40% in two months, the $69,000 bitcoin peak in early November seemed far away. At the time of writing, bitcoin is hovering at $40,000.

The cryptocurrency market’s total market capitalization has also fallen by more than $1 trillion, from $3 trillion to less than $2 trillion. Digital assets are in for a rough week ahead. Is it possible that we are entering a bear market? Personally, I think it is just a correction due to the shutdown of miners.

Commodities (Gold, Oil, and Ag)

Oil – Bullish

The year is starting on a positive note for oil prices. Prices have increased five times in a row, aided by disruptions in North America’s production, as well as in Kazakhstan, which has declared a state emergency. WTI, the US benchmark, temporarily broke the USD 80 mark, while Brent trades around USD 82. Don’t be surprised if we break $100 in 2022 due to inflation and regulatory pressures.

Gold – Bullish

Gold has fallen over the last five days, and the precious metal is not gaining favor among investors despite rising risk aversion. Gold has fallen below USD 1,800 once more, and silver is also losing ground at USD 22.1. However, we believe that “Gold Bugs” will see their day in 2022-23 with a 20% increase due to inflation.

Other precious metals

The rising energy costs in Europe support zinc and aluminum prices in industrial metals. Europe is still feeling the effects of high natural gas prices, and European smelters have to cut their production, which causes prices to rise.

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