ABS Report (Premium Edition) – Oct. 26th 2020

Is it an understatement to say there is plenty of event risk ahead? Indeed, there may be so many associated uncertainties, and all with varying consequences, that the life will likely be sucked out the markets near term. The U.S. elections will take center stage with a about a week to go. Stocks and bond yields have been on the rise, pricing in a “blue wave” with its likely massive stimulus and increased deficit.

In Europe, it’s a live ECB meeting and with still negative inflation rates, there is sizable risk of dovish action. Also, the Brexit saga continues, more than four years after the stunning UK vote. In Japan, the BoJ might temper its growth outlook. Plus, this is the heaviest week of the earnings calendar, while data calendars are crowded with key reports.

Eventful calendars feature this week in the U.S., Europe and Asia, but rather than provide direction and guidance, the crosscurrents from the releases may exacerbate confusion. In the U.S., earnings cover the wide swath of the economy and will reflect the mixed outcomes with pandemic winners and losers. Q3 GDP headlines for the novelty of what should be a record bounce. Europe has a big data calendar that features the Q3 GDP as well. Japan’s heavy month-end docket should show weakness and deflation.

Included In This Week’s Report

  • Key Index & Sector Trends – Determine which sectors or areas are trending up or down.
  • Market Drivers – What will push up or down the markets.
  • Global Market Analysis – Get a high-level picture of the US and global economy.
  • Stocks to Watch – Key blue-chip and income stocks to watch.
  • Economic Calendar – Find out what is happening this week.
  • Massive event risk with U.S. elections, Brexit talks, ECB, BoJ, BoC, earnings and data U.S.
  • Q3 GDP expected to surge 33.5%, new home sales, confidence, and durables due
  • Heaviest week of earnings, with Microsoft, Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Gilead
  • Japan data: retail sales, confidence, Tokyo CPI, unemployment, production
  • Eurozone GDP, ESI confidence, unemployment, CPI; German GDP, Ifo, jobless, HICP
  • Brexit talks may be extended, no-deal scenario now looking to be less of a risk
Here is S&P 500 Chart with Crude Oil over it. Currently we are seeing consolidation/bullish trend in both. In the last couple of years, we have seen a lot of correlation between oil prices and the market as whole. A sudden drop in oil prices could be followed by a drop in the stock market.

Free AlphaBetaStock's Cheat Sheet (No CC)!+ Bonus Dividend Stock Picks
LastCHG %CHGHIGHLOWTREND
Dow28335.57−0.10%−28.0928436.5228149.82BULL
S&P 5003465.390.34%11.93466.463440.45BULL
Crude (WTI)30.9-2.05%-0.81639.7153840BULL
Gold1903.730.50%0.51906.051891.23BULL
10 Year0.808−3.60%−0.0300.8480.803BULL
Bitcoin/USD13132.610.67%91.08513220412931.71BULL
US Dollar Index93.0410.32%0.29593.07392.74Strong BULL
VIX29.918.57%2.3630.1129.38BULL
REIT Index1971.70.66%12.951978.311956.35BULL
The markets have made some very big swings. A tool some traders watch is VIX. Here a S&P 500 chart with VIX. Based on the current volatility is low, but we would be getting reading for a big move.

S&P 500 Sectors

SECTORSLASTCHG%CHGHIGHLOWTREND
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 1249.950.89%11.011250.061233.44BULL
CONSUMER STAPLES 671.610.16%1.04674.4669.92BULL
HEALTH CARE 1255.970.39%4.891265.221249.08Strong BULL
INDUSTRIALS 685.740.40%2.73688.54681.06BULL
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2083.46−0.12%−2.492087.252066.29BULL
MATERIALS 414.640.36%1.5417.73412.88BULL
REAL ESTATE 220.770.68%1.49221.37219.1BEAR
COMMUNICATION SERVICES 204.621.08%2.18204.65202.02Strong BULL
UTILITIES 329.110.23%0.76330.43327.36BULL
FINANCIALS 419.470.35%1.48421.97416.32Strong BULL
ENERGY 229.96−0.55%−1.28233.84227.39BEAR

NORTH AMERICA

The U.S. release schedule picks up following the lean offerings last week, with GDP, confidence, initial claims, personal income and new homes all on the menu this week. GDP takes top billing — we expect the advance Q3 GDP report (Thursday) to reveal headline growth of 33.5%, record bounce from the historic -31.4% collapse in Q2. Strength is expected to come from a reversal in the inventory trajectory from a record-liquidation rate of -$287 bln in Q2 to an $11 bln accumulation rate in Q3, along with a 38.5% jump in consumption. We also see a huge surge in import and export growth of 73% and 69%, respectively, as the world opened up. Also, consumer confidence figures for September will provide a timely read on the impact of rising virus cases renewed restrictions in some regions. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 104.0 from 101.8 in September, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The revised Michigan sentiment report for October (Friday) is expected to show a repeat of the 7-month high of 81.2 in the preliminary report. The high frequency initial jobless claims (Thursday) report will provide an even timelier gauge of the economy, or at least labor market, amid fears over a slowing recovery. We expect a -37k decline to 750k in the week of October 24 after a -55k drop to 787k in the BLS survey week.

A variety of other reports are due this week as well. We expect a -1.1% September drop-back for new home sales (Monday) to a 1,000k pace from a 14-year high of 1,011k in August. Durable goods orders (Tuesday) are expected to drop -0.7% in September after a 0.5% August gain. This would break a four month string of gains. A 0.3% increase in September personal income (Friday) is anticipated after a -2.7% decrease in August, alongside a 1.1% climb in consumption after a 1.0% bounce in August. The employment cost index (ECI) (Friday) is estimated to rise 0.5% Q/Q in Q3, after a 0.5% gain in Q2.

Supply is on tap with a record $162 bln in shorter dated coupon auctions. The total volume was increased by $7 bln from September and is up $47 bln from March as the debt managers have been boosting the notes since March to help cover the trillions in borrowing needs. The sales include $54 bln in 2-year notes (Tuesday), $55 bln in 5-year notes (Wednesday), and $53 bln in 7-7ear notes (Thursday). All are at historic levels. Also slated is a $26 bln 2-year FRN (Wednesday). Some $170 bln in bills are also on tap. Treasuries finished a little richer on Friday with the wi 2-year at 0.160%, the wi 5-year at 0.385%, and the wi 7-year at 0.615%. Despite record size offerings, the auctions generally have been digested with little difficulty, and these should be too.

This week is the heart of earnings season, leaving an avalanche of results for the market to digest: Monday – SAP, HSBC, Twilio, HCA Healthcare, NXP Semi, Otis, Canon, Ingersoll Rand, Cincinnati Financial, Brown & Brown, Hasbro, Principal Financial, and Beyond Meat. Tuesday – Microsoft, Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lilly, 3M, Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, S&P Global, Fiserv, Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab, BP, Chubb, Roper Technologies, Centene, Cummins, MSCI, Stanley Black & Decker, Aflac, Old Dominion, DTW Energy, Fortive, Edison International, Akamai, Restaurant Brands, Transunion, Varian Medical, IDEX, Waters Corp., ONEOK, PPD, Boston properties, Franklin Resources, and Omnicom. Wednesday – Visa, Mastercard, UPS, Amgen, Boeing, Sony, Gilead, Anthem, Equinix, ADP, GE, CME, Norfolk Southern, Boston Scientific, General Dynamics, Cognizant, Blackstone, eBay, O’Reilly Automotive, Trane, Ford, Pinterest, Fiat Chrysler, Welltower, Yum China, Cerner, Entergy, Ameriprise, Rollins, Garmin, Teladoc Health, Suncor, Etsy, SS&C, United Rentals, Tradeweb, Markel, Generac, Western Digital, Molina Healthcare, Fortune Brands, Hess, and Raymond James Financial. Thursday Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Comcast, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch, American Tower, Starbucks, Shell, Fidelity National Information, Stryker, Activision Blizzard, Southern Company, March & McLennan, ICE, Vertex Pharma, Moody’s, Global Payments, Takeda Pharma, Newmont, Spotify, Illumina, DuPont, Keurig Dr Pepper, Baxter , TC Energy, Kraft Heinz, Xcel Energy, Twitter, ConocoPhillips, IDEXX Labs, Seagen, T. Rowe Price, Yum! Brands, Motorola, ING, Parker-Hannifin, Carrier, Moderna, Alexion Pharma, ResMed, AMTEK, Church & Dwight, Kellogg, PG&E, Fortinet, CMS Energy, International paper, Altice, Xylem, CBRE, Martin Marietta, Exact Sciences, Monolithic, Bio-Rad, Alnylam Pharma, Hartford, Zendesk, Arch Capital, NovoCure, Live Nation, Eastman Chemical, Molson Coors, DaVita, and MGM Resorts. Friday- Abbvie, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, Honeywell, Altria, Colgate-Palmolive, Aon, L3Harris, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, KKR, Fortis, Broadridge Financial, Cboe, and Booz Allen Hamilton.

The Bank of Canada’s rate announcement is the highlight of this week. Our projection is for no change to the 0.25% rate setting. Forward guidance should be maintained — in September, the BoC said they will “hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” Economic data features August GDP (Friday), expected to rise 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 3.0% gain in July. The industrial product price index is also due out Friday.

ASIA

This week’s calendar features Japan’s month-end data deluge, which will include September industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and October consumer confidence. In addition, the BoJ meets Wednesday and Thursday, though no policy changes are expected. China’s docket is thin. Elsewhere, production, trade, growth and price data dot the calendar.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No policy changes are expected. The Bank continues to battle deflation. Last week it was reported that core CPI fell at a -0.3% y/y in September, though slightly slowed than the prior -0.4% y/y clip. Prices have not posted an increase since March. The headline index dipped to 0% from a 0.2% pace. It’s tumbled from a 1.4% y/y pace in October 2018. However, the Bank may temper its growth outlook due to Covid. The data docket kicks off (Monday) with September services PPI, seen rising at a 1.1% y/y rate from 1.0%. September retail sales (Thursday) are seen dropping to a -8.0% y/y rate from -3.2% for large retailers, and to -10.0% y/y from -1.9% overall. October consumer confidence (Thursday) should rise to 35.0 from 32.7. The remainder of releases are due Friday, and feature October Tokyo CPI, seen sliding to -0.2% y/y from 0.2% overall, and to -0.5% y/y from -0.2% on a core basis. September unemployment is forecast unchanged at 2.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is seen steady at 1.04. September industrial production is expected to improve to 2.0% y/y, doubling from 1.0% previously. September housing starts and construction orders are due as well.

China’s manufacturing PMI (Saturday) is expected to rise to 52.0 in October from 51.5 in September. This was the first country to see activity really drop on the virus, and has been the first nation to recover. The index plunged to a record low of 35.7 in February, and subsequently bounced to 52.0 in March and has been in expansion ever since. The index was at 49.3 a year ago. South Korea advance Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is forecast improving improving to -1.7% y/y from -2.7% in Q2. It was at a 1.4% rate in Q1 and 2.3% in Q4 2019. October consumer sentiment (Wednesday) should rebound to 80.0 after falling 8.8 points to 79.4 previously. September industrial production (Friday) is penciled in bouncing to a 1.0% growth clip from the prior -3.0% reading. This would be the first increase since March. Taiwan September leading indicators are due (Tuesday), with Q3 GDP (Friday), expected to rise 0.1% y/y from -0.6% previously. Hong Kong September trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to widen to HKD 20.0 bln from 14.6 bln. Weakness in both imports and exports is expected to ease. Malaysia September trade (Wednesday) is expected to see the surplus widen to MYR 15.0 bln from 13.2 bln. Thailand September trade and current account figures are due Friday. Singapore September manufacturing production (Monday) likely dropped back to a -7.0% y/y rate after recovering to a 13.7% pace in August, following three months in contractionary territory. September unemployment (Friday) should rise to 3.6% from 3.4% due to Covid, which would be a 10-year high.

Australia’s calendar has CPI, expected to rise 1.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after falling -1.9% in Q2. Import and export prices for Q3 are due Thursday, while Q3 PPI will be released on Friday. RBA Assistant Governor Bullock speaks to the Ayr Chamber of Commerce (Tuesday). Last week, RBA Assistant Governor Kent said the board is considering another easing. Kent’s remarks backed up Governor Lowe’s recent messaging, which was that a rate cut and other monetary easing measures are in the works. The RBA next meets November 3 — additional easing measures are expected. New Zealand’s trade balance (Tuesday) is projected at -NZ$1.0 bln in September following the -NZ$0.4 bln deficit in August. The next RBNZ meeting is on November 11. At the last meeting, the RBNZ indicated it is actively working on a negative rate stance.

EUROPE

Eurozone: there’s a big data calendar for the Eurozone, but while preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter are likely to confirm a relatively robust rebound in activity over the summer, the subsequent pick up in virus numbers and increasingly strict measures designed to keep the second wave under control have already started to weigh on confidence and fueled fears of a double dip recession. With inflation remaining in negative territory that means this week’s ECB meeting is a live one as the dovish camp at the central bank will likely argue for an early move on additional stimulus measures, which will involve a further expansion of asset purchases. We still think a move in December, when the next set of forecasts are due the outlook on Brexit and on the virus front are likely to be clearer. However, there is a sizeable risk that the ECB could already act this week, and at the very least Lagarde is going to sound very dovish and officially set the stage for a move in December, most likely an extension of PEPP.

The data calendar is packed with first tier data this week, including the remaining confidence numbers for October, inflation data and the first estimates for Q3 GDP. The latter are widely expected to confirm that activity bounced back over the summer as restrictions were lifted and countries allowed summer vacations to go ahead with only limited restrictions. We expect German GDP (Friday) to have expended 7.4% q/q – not quite compensating for the -9.7% q/q contraction in the second quarter. Similarly, overall Eurozone GDP (Friday) is expected to have bounced back 9.0% q/q after falling -11.8% q/q in Q2.

Looking ahead confidence data has already started to register virus developments and the renewed tightening of restrictions, with regional lockdowns and curfews hitting the services sector in particular. Manufacturing has been held up by the ongoing improvement in demand from China and other countries where the recovery continues. We expect German Ifo Business Confidence (Monday), to drop back to 93.1 (median 93.0) from 93.4 in September. Similarly, Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is expected to decline to 90.0 (median 89.5) from 91.1, weighed down by services and consumer sentiment, while industrial sentiment should be holding up somewhat better for now.

The improvement in manufacturing and wide ranging official measures designed to help companies to hold on to staff during the crisis have helped to underpin the labour market and at least German jobless numbers have started to improve again. We expect a continuation of that trend for now and expect German sa jobless numbers (Thursday) to have dropped -3K (median -6K), which should leave the sa jobless rate for October unchanged at 6.3%. Overall Eurozone data is more backward looking and not all countries are equally benefiting from the improvement in manufacturing, that means the Eurozone unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 8.2% (median same) from 8.1% in the September reading (Friday).

Government support and very accommodative financing conditions have helped to underpin consumer demand to a certain extend, but inflation is still likely to hold firmly in negative territory also thanks to base effects from energy prices and of course Germany’s temporary VAT cut. Inflation is likely to remain firmly in negative territory in preliminary readings for October and we see German HICP inflation (Thursday) unchanged at -0.4% y/y and overall Eurozone CPI (Friday) at -0.3% y/y.

The very full calendar also includes GDP and preliminary inflation numbers for France, Spain and Italy as well as German retail sales and import prices.

U.K.: the Brexit saga will continue this week. As of the time of writing, on Friday, the EU and UK trade representatives were planning to be continue their face-to-face (or facemask-to-facemask) meetings in London through to Sunday evening. Despite the recent stand-off between the UK and some EU leaders (France, for instance, threatening to veto an agreement if it doesn’t get want it wants) it has been increasingly evident that both sides are set on reaching an accord. There is a sense that the backdrop of surging new Covid cases has helped realpolitik break out on both sides of the channel.

On Friday a Reuters article, citing French fishing industry sources, said that Macron’s government have warned them to expect a smaller catch. France has been the most vocal of the so-called coastal 8 EU nations that have been demanding unchanged access to UK waters for fishing, which has been the principal sticking point in trade talks, so the Reuters report is significant, revealing that a compromise appears to be in the works. The UK, meanwhile, signed its first post-Breixt trade deal on Friday, with Japan, a deal which was agreed in principle a month ago.

With a no deal scenario now looking much less of a risk, the question now is more focused on how limited or how broad a deal might be between the EU and UK. The consensus is for a narrower rather a broader deal, and we concur with this. But, it should also be considered that the EU and UK might conceivably surprise everyone with a much more comprehensive deal than is being expected. The Covid situation may be a motivation for this, and it should be remembered that the two sides are starting from perfect equivalence, so a broad agreement is entirely feasible. Even some Brexit ideologues in the UK have suggested that maintaining close alignment with EU rules — for now — may be the more pragmatic way forward given the Covid stresses, before diverging from EU rules in an evolving process over time.

The UK data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by monthly lending and money supply data from the BoE (on Thursday).

Switzerland: the Swiss data calendar is highlighted by the October KOF leading indicator and September retail sales data (both due Friday). The median forecast is for the KOF headline to ebb to 107.0 in the headline reading from September’s 113.8 level.

AlphaBetaStock’s team is constantly looking for opportunities to invest in income or growth stocks. Our current list of stocks we are watching and their current trend is listed below. Please note, that a bullish trend does not necessarily mean buy nor does a bear trend mean sell because the financial advisor or investor’s strategy may overrule it. Actually, in some cases, we purchase stocks that are dipping or in a short term bear trend.

NameSymbolStrategyTrend
3M CompanyMMMDividendBULL
Altria Group, Inc.MODividendBEAR
AppleAPPLGrowthBULL
AmazonAMZNGrowthBULL
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVBUDDividendBULL
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.BIPDividendBEAR
Defiance 5G Next Gen Connectivity ETFFIVGGrowthBULL
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.DDDividendStrong BULL
eBay Inc.EBAYGrowthBULL
Emerson Electric Co.EMRDividendBULL
Enterprise Bancorp, Inc.EBTCDividendBULL
Genuine Parts CompanyGPCDividendBULL
Johnson & JohnsonJNJDividendBEAR
PayPal Holdings, Inc.PYPLGrowthBULL
Peloton Interactive, Inc.PTONGrowthBULL
Quidel CorporationQDELGrowthBULL
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPGDividendBULL
Veritone, Inc.VERIGrowthBULL

Calendar

Global Comprehensive Calendar
DATEETLOCALEINDICATOR – EVENTFORFORECASTMEDIANLAST
 24 Oct 21:00 Europe Daylight Saving Time Ends – Set clocks back one hour
 25 Oct 19:50 Japan Services PPI Y/Y  SEP 1.1%  1.0%
 26 Oct 01:00 Singapore Manufacturing Production Y/Y  SEP -7.0%  13.7%
 26 Oct 05:00 Germany Ifo Business Climate  OCT 93.1 93.0 93.4
 26 Oct 05:00 Germany Ifo Expectations  OCT 97.2 96.3 97.7
 26 Oct 05:00 Germany Ifo Current Assessment  OCT 89.7 89.7 89.2
 26 Oct 08:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index  SEP   0.79
 26 Oct 10:00 United States New Home Sales  SEP 1.000M 1.023M 1.011M
 26 Oct 10:30 United States Dallas Fed Index  OCT 13.0  13.6
 26 Oct 18:45 New Zealand Merchandise Trade Balance  SEP -1.0B  -0.4B
 26 Oct 19:00 South Korea GDP Y/Y – advance  Q3 -1.7%  -2.7%
 27 Oct 03:45 France Producer Price Index (M/M)  SEP   0.1%
 27 Oct 03:45 France Producer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP   -2.5%
 27 Oct 04:00 Taiwan Leading Economic Index M/M  SEP   1.7%
 27 Oct 04:30 Hong Kong Trade Balance HKD  SEP -20.0B  -14.6B
 27 Oct 05:00 Eurozone M3 sa (Y/Y)  SEP 9.6% 9.6% 9.5%
 27 Oct 07:00 United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Expected  NOV   -17
 27 Oct 07:00 United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized  OCT   -7
 27 Oct 08:30 United States Durable Orders  SEP -0.7% 0.3%0.5% R
 27 Oct 08:30 United States Durable Orders ex-Trans  SEP 0.4% 0.6% R
 27 Oct 08:30 United States Durable Shipments  SEP 0.5% -0.2% R
 27 Oct 08:55 United States Redbook 10/24    1.0%
 27 Oct 09:00 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (nsa)  AUG 228.0  226.6
 27 Oct 09:00 United States FHFA Home Price Index  AUG 295.7  293.0
 27 Oct 09:00 Mexico Trade Balance USD Pre  SEP   6116M
 27 Oct 10:00 United States Consumer Confidence  OCT 104.0 102.8 101.8
 27 Oct 10:00 United States Richmond Fed Index  OCT 16  21
 27 Oct 13:00 United States Treasury Auctions 2-Year Notes
 27 Oct 17:00 South Korea Consumer Sentiment NSA  OCT 80.0  79.4
 27 Oct 20:30 Australia CPI Q/Q  Q3 1.5%  -1.9%
 28 Oct 00:00 Malaysia Trade Balance MYR  SEP 15.0B  13.2B
 28 Oct 00:00 Malaysia Exports-CC Y/Y  SEP   -2.9%
 28 Oct 00:00 Malaysia Imports-CC Y/Y  SEP   -6.5%
 28 Oct  Japan BoJ policy board 2-day meeting (28-29 Oct) begins
 28 Oct  Brazil Central Bank Selic Rate     2.00%
 28 Oct 02:00 Germany Import Price Index (M/M)  SEP   0.1%
 28 Oct 02:00 Germany Import Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP -3.9%  -4.0%
 28 Oct 06:00 Italy Italy sells bonds
 28 Oct 06:00 Italy Producer Price Index (M/M)  SEP   0.1%
 28 Oct 06:00 Italy Producer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP   -3.0%
 28 Oct 07:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 10/23    -0.6%
 28 Oct 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Trade  SEP -$85.6B -$85.4B-$83.1B R
 28 Oct 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Exports  SEP $122.0B $118.8B R
 28 Oct 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Goods Imports  SEP $207.6B $201.9B R
 28 Oct 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Wholesale Inventories  SEP $638.7B $635.5B R
 28 Oct 08:30 United States Adv. Indicators: Retail Inventories  SEP $602.1B $597.1B R
 28 Oct 10:00 Canada BoC Releases the Monetary Policy Report
 28 Oct 10:00 Canada BoC Rate Announcement
 28 Oct 10:00 Canada BoC Overnight Rate Target   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
 28 Oct 10:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks 10/23    
 28 Oct 10:30 United States EIA Gasoline Stocks 10/23    
 28 Oct 10:30 United States EIA Distillate Stocks 10/23    
 28 Oct 11:30 United States Treasury Auctions 2-Year Notes FRN
 28 Oct 13:00 United States Treasury Auctions 5-Year Notes
 28 Oct 18:00 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan moderates panel discussion on global perspectives with Mark Carney
 28 Oct 19:50 Japan Large Retailer Sales Y/Y  SEP -8.0%  -3.2%
 28 Oct 19:50 Japan Total Retail Sales Y/Y  SEP -10.0%  -1.9%
 28 Oct 19:50 Japan Trade Balance 1st 10 NSA JPY  OCT   155.7B
 28 Oct 20:30 Australia Import Prices  Q3 -2.0%  -1.9%
 28 Oct 20:30 Australia Export Prices  Q3 -3.4%  -2.4%
 28 Oct 23:00 Japan BoJ releases Quarterly Outlook Report
 28 Oct 23:00 Japan BoJ policy board concludes 2-day meeting and announces interest rate decision
 28 Oct 23:30 Japan BoJ Policy-Rate Balances   -0.1%  -0.1%
 29 Oct 01:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index SA  OCT 35.0  32.7
 29 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom BoE Net Consumer Credit sa (Gbp)  SEP   0.3B
 29 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom BoE Net Mortgage Lending sa (Gbp)  SEP   3.1B
 29 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom BoE Mortgage Approvals sa (Number)  SEP   84.7K
 29 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply sa (M/M) – Final  SEP   -0.4%
 29 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (Y/Y) – Final  SEP   12.1%
 29 Oct 03:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Prices sa (M/M)  OCT   0.9%
 29 Oct 03:00 United Kingdom Nationwide House Prices nsa (Y/Y)  OCT   5.0%
 29 Oct 04:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) Preliminary  OCT -0.7%  -0.6%
 29 Oct 04:00 Hungary Unemployment Rate  SEP   4.6%
 29 Oct 04:55 Germany Unemployment Change sa  OCT -3K -6K -8K
 29 Oct 04:55 Germany Unemployment Rate sa  OCT 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
 29 Oct 05:00 Italy Consumer Confidence sa  OCT   103.8
 29 Oct 05:00 Italy Business Confidence (manufacturing)  OCT   92.1
 29 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence  OCT 90.0 89.5 91.1
 29 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence  OCT -15.5  -15.5 P
 29 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence  OCT -10.8  -11.1
 29 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Services Confidence  OCT -12.1  -11.1
 29 Oct 06:00 Ireland Unemployment Rate  SEP   5.2%
 29 Oct 08:30 United States GDP Advance Report   Q3 33.5% 31.9% -31.4%
 29 Oct 08:30 United States GDP Chain Price Advance Report   Q3 3.0% 2.9% -1.8%
 29 Oct 08:30 United States Initial Claims 10/24  750K 800K 787K
 29 Oct 08:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims 10/17  7,700K  8,373K
 29 Oct 08:30 Canada Building Permits  SEP   1.7%
 29 Oct 08:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings M/M  AUG   0.1%
 29 Oct 08:45 Eurozone ECB Refi Rate   0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
 29 Oct 08:45 Frankfurt ECB Rate Announcement (Press Conference at 13:30 GMT)
 29 Oct 09:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Preliminary  OCT   -0.4%
 29 Oct 09:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Preliminary  OCT -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%
 29 Oct 09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Preliminary  OCT   0.2%
 29 Oct 09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Preliminary  OCT -0.3% -0.3% -0.2%
 29 Oct 09:45 United States Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 10/25    46.6
 29 Oct 10:00 United States Pending Home Sales Index  SEP 132.5  132.8
 29 Oct 10:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Stocks 10/23    49B
 29 Oct 13:00 United States Treasury Auctions 7-Year Notes
 29 Oct 16:30 United States M2 – Week Ended 10/19    $106.3B
 29 Oct 19:00 South Korea Industrial Production Y/Y  SEP 1.0%  -3.0%
 29 Oct 19:30 Japan CPI (Tokyo) Y/Y  OCT -0.2%  0.2%
 29 Oct 19:30 Japan CPI (Tokyo) ex-Perishables Y/Y  OCT -0.5%  -0.2%
 29 Oct 19:30 Japan Unemployment Rate  SEP 3.0%  3.0%
 29 Oct 19:30 Japan Job Off/Seekers Ratio  SEP 1.04  1.04
 29 Oct 19:50 Japan Industrial Production M/M SA (prelim)  SEP 2.0%  1.0%
 29 Oct 20:30 Australia PPI  Q3   -1.2%
 29 Oct 22:00 Singapore Bank Credit Y/Y  SEP   -1.0%
 29 Oct 22:30 Singapore Unemployment Rate SA  SEP 3.6%  2.9%
 30 Oct 01:00 Japan Housing Starts Y/Y  SEP -8.0%  -9.3%
 30 Oct 01:00 Japan Construction Orders Y/Y  SEP   28.5%
 30 Oct 02:30 France Consumer Spending sa (M/M)  SEP   2.3%
 30 Oct 02:30 France Consumer Spending sa (Y/Y)  SEP   2.4%
 30 Oct 02:30 France GDP (Q/Q) – Preliminary  Q3 13.0% 14.2% -13.8%
 30 Oct 02:30 France GDP (Y/Y) – Preliminary  Q3   -18.9%
 30 Oct 03:00 Germany GDP sa (Q/Q) – 1st Release  Q3 7.4% 7.3% -9.7% P
 30 Oct 03:00 Germany GDP wda (Y/Y) – 1st Release  Q3   -11.3% P
 30 Oct 03:00 Germany GDP nsa (Y/Y) – 1st Release  Q3   -11.3% P
 30 Oct 03:00 Germany Retail Sales (M/M)  SEP 1.0%  3.1%
 30 Oct 03:00 Germany Retail Sales (Y/Y)  SEP   3.7%
 30 Oct 03:30 Thailand Trade Balance-BOP USD  SEP   5.4B
 30 Oct 03:30 Thailand Exports-BOP USD Y/Y  SEP   -8.2%
 30 Oct 03:30 Thailand Imports-BOP USD Y/Y  SEP   -19.1%
 30 Oct 03:30 Thailand Current Account USD  SEP $2.0B  $3.0B
 30 Oct 03:30 Switzerland Retail Sales (real Y/Y)  SEP   2.5%
 30 Oct 03:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Prelim  OCT   -0.6%
 30 Oct 03:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Prelim  OCT 0.1% 0.1% UNCH
 30 Oct 03:45 France Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Prelim  OCT   -0.5%
 30 Oct 03:45 France Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Prelim  OCT 0.1% 0.1% N/A
 30 Oct 04:00 Taiwan GDP Y/Y  Q3 0.1%  -0.6%
 30 Oct 04:00 Spain GDP sa (Q/Q) Preliminary  Q3 13.5%  -17.8%
 30 Oct 04:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator  OCT  107.0 113.8
 30 Oct 04:00 Turkey Trade Balance USD  SEP   -6.3B
 30 Oct 05:00 Frankfurt ECB survey of Professional Forecasters
 30 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Flash Estimate  OCT -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%
 30 Oct 06:00 Eurozone GDP sa (Q/Q) – 1st Release   Q3 9.0% 9.5% -11.8%
 30 Oct 06:00 Eurozone GDP sa (Y/Y) – 1st Release   Q3   -14.7%
 30 Oct 06:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate  SEP 8.2% 8.2% 8.1%
 30 Oct 06:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Preliminary  OCT   0.9%
 30 Oct 06:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Preliminary  OCT   -1.0%
 30 Oct 06:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (M/M) – Preliminary  OCT   -0.7%
 30 Oct 06:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (Y/Y) – Preliminary  OCT   -0.6%
 30 Oct 06:00 Brazil PPI Y/Y  SEP   13.7%
 30 Oct 07:00 Italy GDP sa and wda (Q/Q) – Preliminary  Q3 11.1% 11.0% -12.8%
 30 Oct 07:00 Italy GDP sa and wda (Y/Y) – Preliminary  Q3   -17.7%
 30 Oct 07:00 Brazil Unemployment Rate  AUG   13.8%
 30 Oct 08:00 Chile Unemployment Rate  SEP   12.9%
 30 Oct 08:00 Chile Retail Sales Y/Y  SEP   2.8%
 30 Oct 08:00 Chile Industrial Production Y/Y  SEP   -4.8%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States ECI – Civilian Q/Q   Q3 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States ECI – Civilian Y/Y   Q3 2.4%  2.7%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States Personal Income  SEP 0.3% 0.4% -2.7%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States PCE  SEP 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States PCE Chain Price M/M  SEP 0.1%  0.3%
 30 Oct 08:30 United States PCE Chain Price ex-F&E M/M  SEP 0.1%  0.3%
 30 Oct 08:30 Canada GDP by Industry  AUG 1.0%  3.0%
 30 Oct 08:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index  SEP   0.3%
 30 Oct 08:30 Canada Raw Materials Price Index  SEP   3.2%
 30 Oct 09:00 Ecuador GDP Y/Y  Q2   -2.4%
 30 Oct 09:45 United States Chicago PMI  OCT 57.0 59.1 62.4
 30 Oct 10:00 United States Michigan Sentiment Final  OCT 81.2 81.2 81.2
 30 Oct 11:00 Colombia Unemployment Rate  SEP   16.8%
 30 Oct 14:00 Colombia Central Bank O/N Lending Rate     1.75%
 30 Oct 15:00 United States Agriculture Prices  SEP 0.5%  0.2%
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