ABS Report (Premium Edition) – Oct. 26th 2020

Is it an understatement to say there is plenty of event risk ahead? Indeed, there may be so many associated uncertainties, and all with varying consequences, that the life will likely be sucked out the markets near term. The U.S. elections will take center stage with a about a week to go. Stocks and bond yields have been on the rise, pricing in a “blue wave” with its likely massive stimulus and increased deficit.

In Europe, it’s a live ECB meeting and with still negative inflation rates, there is sizable risk of dovish action. Also, the Brexit saga continues, more than four years after the stunning UK vote. In Japan, the BoJ might temper its growth outlook. Plus, this is the heaviest week of the earnings calendar, while data calendars are crowded with key reports.

Eventful calendars feature this week in the U.S., Europe and Asia, but rather than provide direction and guidance, the crosscurrents from the releases may exacerbate confusion. In the U.S., earnings cover the wide swath of the economy and will reflect the mixed outcomes with pandemic winners and losers. Q3 GDP headlines for the novelty of what should be a record bounce. Europe has a big data calendar that features the Q3 GDP as well. Japan’s heavy month-end docket should show weakness and deflation.

Included In This Week’s Report

• Key Index & Sector Trends – Determine which sectors or areas are trending up or down.
• Market Drivers – What will push up or down the markets.
• Global Market Analysis – Get a high-level picture of the US and global economy.
• Stocks to Watch – Key blue-chip and income stocks to watch.
• Economic Calendar – Find out what is happening this week.

• Massive event risk with U.S. elections, Brexit talks, ECB, BoJ, BoC, earnings and data U.S.
• Q3 GDP expected to surge 33.5%, new home sales, confidence, and durables due
• Heaviest week of earnings, with Microsoft, Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Gilead
• Japan data: retail sales, confidence, Tokyo CPI, unemployment, production
• Eurozone GDP, ESI confidence, unemployment, CPI; German GDP, Ifo, jobless, HICP
• Brexit talks may be extended, no-deal scenario now looking to be less of a risk

S&P 500 Sectors

NORTH AMERICA

The U.S. release schedule picks up following the lean offerings last week, with GDP, confidence, initial claims, personal income and new homes all on the menu this week. GDP takes top billing — we expect the advance Q3 GDP report (Thursday) to reveal headline growth of 33.5%, record bounce from the historic -31.4% collapse in Q2. Strength is expected to come from a reversal in the inventory trajectory from a record-liquidation rate of -$287 bln in Q2 to an $11 bln accumulation rate in Q3, along with a 38.5% jump in consumption. We also see a huge surge in import and export growth of 73% and 69%, respectively, as the world opened up. Also, consumer confidence figures for September will provide a timely read on the impact of rising virus cases renewed restrictions in some regions. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 104.0 from 101.8 in September, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The revised Michigan sentiment report for October (Friday) is expected to show a repeat of the 7-month high of 81.2 in the preliminary report. The high frequency initial jobless claims (Thursday) report will provide an even timelier gauge of the economy, or at least labor market, amid fears over a slowing recovery. We expect a -37k decline to 750k in the week of October 24 after a -55k drop to 787k in the BLS survey week.

A variety of other reports are due this week as well. We expect a -1.1% September drop-back for new home sales (Monday) to a 1,000k pace from a 14-year high of 1,011k in August. Durable goods orders (Tuesday) are expected to drop -0.7% in September after a 0.5% August gain. This would break a four month string of gains. A 0.3% increase in September personal income (Friday) is anticipated after a -2.7% decrease in August, alongside a 1.1% climb in consumption after a 1.0% bounce in August. The employment cost index (ECI) (Friday) is estimated to rise 0.5% Q/Q in Q3, after a 0.5% gain in Q2.

Supply is on tap with a record $162 bln in shorter dated coupon auctions. The total volume was increased by $7 bln from September and is up $47 bln from March as the debt managers have been boosting the notes since March to help cover the trillions in borrowing needs. The sales include $54 bln in 2-year notes (Tuesday), $55 bln in 5-year notes (Wednesday), and $53 bln in 7-7ear notes (Thursday). All are at historic levels. Also slated is a $26 bln 2-year FRN (Wednesday). Some $170 bln in bills are also on tap. Treasuries finished a little richer on Friday with the wi 2-year at 0.160%, the wi 5-year at 0.385%, and the wi 7-year at 0.615%. Despite record size offerings, the auctions generally have been digested with little difficulty, and these should be too.

This week is the heart of earnings season, leaving an avalanche of results for the market to digest: Monday – SAP, HSBC, Twilio, HCA Healthcare, NXP Semi, Otis, Canon, Ingersoll Rand, Cincinnati Financial, Brown & Brown, Hasbro, Principal Financial, and Beyond Meat. Tuesday – Microsoft, Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lilly, 3M, Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, S&P Global, Fiserv, Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab, BP, Chubb, Roper Technologies, Centene, Cummins, MSCI, Stanley Black & Decker, Aflac, Old Dominion, DTW Energy, Fortive, Edison International, Akamai, Restaurant Brands, Transunion, Varian Medical, IDEX, Waters Corp., ONEOK, PPD, Boston properties, Franklin Resources, and Omnicom. Wednesday – Visa, Mastercard, UPS, Amgen, Boeing, Sony, Gilead, Anthem, Equinix, ADP, GE, CME, Norfolk Southern, Boston Scientific, General Dynamics, Cognizant, Blackstone, eBay, O’Reilly Automotive, Trane, Ford, Pinterest, Fiat Chrysler, Welltower, Yum China, Cerner, Entergy, Ameriprise, Rollins, Garmin, Teladoc Health, Suncor, Etsy, SS&C, United Rentals, Tradeweb, Markel, Generac, Western Digital, Molina Healthcare, Fortune Brands, Hess, and Raymond James Financial. Thursday – Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Comcast, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch, American Tower, Starbucks, Shell, Fidelity National Information, Stryker, Activision Blizzard, Southern Company, March & McLennan, ICE, Vertex Pharma, Moody’s, Global Payments, Takeda Pharma, Newmont, Spotify, Illumina, DuPont, Keurig Dr Pepper, Baxter , TC Energy, Kraft Heinz, Xcel Energy, Twitter, ConocoPhillips, IDEXX Labs, Seagen, T. Rowe Price, Yum! Brands, Motorola, ING, Parker-Hannifin, Carrier, Moderna, Alexion Pharma, ResMed, AMTEK, Church & Dwight, Kellogg, PG&E, Fortinet, CMS Energy, International paper, Altice, Xylem, CBRE, Martin Marietta, Exact Sciences, Monolithic, Bio-Rad, Alnylam Pharma, Hartford, Zendesk, Arch Capital, NovoCure, Live Nation, Eastman Chemical, Molson Coors, DaVita, and MGM Resorts. Friday- Abbvie, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, Honeywell, Altria, Colgate-Palmolive, Aon, L3Harris, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, KKR, Fortis, Broadridge Financial, Cboe, and Booz Allen Hamilton.

The Bank of Canada’s rate announcement is the highlight of this week. Our projection is for no change to the 0.25% rate setting. Forward guidance should be maintained — in September, the BoC said they will “hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” Economic data features August GDP (Friday), expected to rise 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 3.0% gain in July. The industrial product price index is also due out Friday.

ASIA

This week’s calendar features Japan’s month-end data deluge, which will include September industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and October consumer confidence. In addition, the BoJ meets Wednesday and Thursday, though no policy changes are expected. China’s docket is thin. Elsewhere, production, trade, growth and price data dot the calendar.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No policy changes are expected. The Bank continues to battle deflation. Last week it was reported that core CPI fell at a -0.3% y/y in September, though slightly slowed than the prior -0.4% y/y clip. Prices have not posted an increase since March. The headline index dipped to 0% from a 0.2% pace. It’s tumbled from a 1.4% y/y pace in October 2018. However, the Bank may temper its growth outlook due to Covid. The data docket kicks off (Monday) with September services PPI, seen rising at a 1.1% y/y rate from 1.0%. September retail sales (Thursday) are seen dropping to a -8.0% y/y rate from -3.2% for large retailers, and to -10.0% y/y from -1.9% overall. October consumer confidence (Thursday) should rise to 35.0 from 32.7. The remainder of releases are due Friday, and feature October Tokyo CPI, seen sliding to -0.2% y/y from 0.2% overall, and to -0.5% y/y from -0.2% on a core basis. September unemployment is forecast unchanged at 2.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is seen steady at 1.04. September industrial production is expected to improve to 2.0% y/y, doubling from 1.0% previously. September housing starts and construction orders are due as well.

China’s manufacturing PMI (Saturday) is expected to rise to 52.0 in October from 51.5 in September. This was the first country to see activity really drop on the virus, and has been the first nation to recover. The index plunged to a record low of 35.7 in February, and subsequently bounced to 52.0 in March and has been in expansion ever since. The index was at 49.3 a year ago. South Korea advance Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is forecast improving improving to -1.7% y/y from -2.7% in Q2. It was at a 1.4% rate in Q1 and 2.3% in Q4 2019. October consumer sentiment (Wednesday) should rebound to 80.0 after falling 8.8 points to 79.4 previously. September industrial production (Friday) is penciled in bouncing to a 1.0% growth clip from the prior -3.0% reading. This would be the first increase since March. Taiwan September leading indicators are due (Tuesday), with Q3 GDP (Friday), expected to rise 0.1% y/y from -0.6% previously. Hong Kong September trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to widen to HKD 20.0 bln from 14.6 bln. Weakness in both imports and exports is expected to ease. Malaysia September trade (Wednesday) is expected to see the surplus widen to MYR 15.0 bln from 13.2 bln. Thailand September trade and current account figures are due Friday. Singapore September manufacturing production (Monday) likely dropped back to a -7.0% y/y rate after recovering to a 13.7% pace in August, following three months in contractionary territory. September unemployment (Friday) should rise to 3.6% from 3.4% due to Covid, which would be a 10-year high.

Australia’s calendar has CPI, expected to rise 1.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after falling -1.9% in Q2. Import and export prices for Q3 are due Thursday, while Q3 PPI will be released on Friday. RBA Assistant Governor Bullock speaks to the Ayr Chamber of Commerce (Tuesday). Last week, RBA Assistant Governor Kent said the board is considering another easing. Kent’s remarks backed up Governor Lowe’s recent messaging, which was that a rate cut and other monetary easing measures are in the works. The RBA next meets November 3 — additional easing measures are expected. New Zealand’s trade balance (Tuesday) is projected at -NZ$1.0 bln in September following the -NZ$0.4 bln deficit in August. The next RBNZ meeting is on November 11. At the last meeting, the RBNZ indicated it is actively working on a negative rate stance.

EUROPE

Eurozone: there’s a big data calendar for the Eurozone, but while preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter are likely to confirm a relatively robust rebound in activity over the summer, the subsequent pick up in virus numbers and increasingly strict measures designed to keep the second wave under control have already started to weigh on confidence and fueled fears of a double dip recession. With inflation remaining in negative territory that means this week’s ECB meeting is a live one as the dovish camp at the central bank will likely argue for an early move on additional stimulus measures, which will involve a further expansion of asset purchases. We still think a move in December, when the next set of forecasts are due the outlook on Brexit and on the virus front are likely to be clearer. However, there is a sizeable risk that the ECB could already act this week, and at the very least Lagarde is going to sound very dovish and officially set the stage for a move in December, most likely an extension of PEPP.

The data calendar is packed with first tier data this week, including the remaining confidence numbers for October, inflation data and the first estimates for Q3 GDP. The latter are widely expected to confirm that activity bounced back over the summer as restrictions were lifted and countries allowed summer vacations to go ahead with only limited restrictions. We expect German GDP (Friday) to have expended 7.4% q/q – not quite compensating for the -9.7% q/q contraction in the second quarter. Similarly, overall Eurozone GDP (Friday) is expected to have bounced back 9.0% q/q after falling -11.8% q/q in Q2.

Looking ahead confidence data has already started to register virus developments and the renewed tightening of restrictions, with regional lockdowns and curfews hitting the services sector in particular. Manufacturing has been held up by the ongoing improvement in demand from China and other countries where the recovery continues. We expect German Ifo Business Confidence (Monday), to drop back to 93.1 (median 93.0) from 93.4 in September. Similarly, Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is expected to decline to 90.0 (median 89.5) from 91.1, weighed down by services and consumer sentiment, while industrial sentiment should be holding up somewhat better for now.

The improvement in manufacturing and wide ranging official measures designed to help companies to hold on to staff during the crisis have helped to underpin the labour market and at least German jobless numbers have started to improve again. We expect a continuation of that trend for now and expect German sa jobless numbers (Thursday) to have dropped -3K (median -6K), which should leave the sa jobless rate for October unchanged at 6.3%. Overall Eurozone data is more backward looking and not all countries are equally benefiting from the improvement in manufacturing, that means the Eurozone unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 8.2% (median same) from 8.1% in the September reading (Friday).

Government support and very accommodative financing conditions have helped to underpin consumer demand to a certain extend, but inflation is still likely to hold firmly in negative territory also thanks to base effects from energy prices and of course Germany’s temporary VAT cut. Inflation is likely to remain firmly in negative territory in preliminary readings for October and we see German HICP inflation (Thursday) unchanged at -0.4% y/y and overall Eurozone CPI (Friday) at -0.3% y/y.

The very full calendar also includes GDP and preliminary inflation numbers for France, Spain and Italy as well as German retail sales and import prices.

U.K.: the Brexit saga will continue this week. As of the time of writing, on Friday, the EU and UK trade representatives were planning to be continue their face-to-face (or facemask-to-facemask) meetings in London through to Sunday evening. Despite the recent stand-off between the UK and some EU leaders (France, for instance, threatening to veto an agreement if it doesn’t get want it wants) it has been increasingly evident that both sides are set on reaching an accord. There is a sense that the backdrop of surging new Covid cases has helped realpolitik break out on both sides of the channel.

On Friday a Reuters article, citing French fishing industry sources, said that Macron’s government have warned them to expect a smaller catch. France has been the most vocal of the so-called coastal 8 EU nations that have been demanding unchanged access to UK waters for fishing, which has been the principal sticking point in trade talks, so the Reuters report is significant, revealing that a compromise appears to be in the works. The UK, meanwhile, signed its first post-Breixt trade deal on Friday, with Japan, a deal which was agreed in principle a month ago.

With a no deal scenario now looking much less of a risk, the question now is more focused on how limited or how broad a deal might be between the EU and UK. The consensus is for a narrower rather a broader deal, and we concur with this. But, it should also be considered that the EU and UK might conceivably surprise everyone with a much more comprehensive deal than is being expected. The Covid situation may be a motivation for this, and it should be remembered that the two sides are starting from perfect equivalence, so a broad agreement is entirely feasible. Even some Brexit ideologues in the UK have suggested that maintaining close alignment with EU rules — for now — may be the more pragmatic way forward given the Covid stresses, before diverging from EU rules in an evolving process over time.

The UK data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by monthly lending and money supply data from the BoE (on Thursday).

Switzerland: the Swiss data calendar is highlighted by the October KOF leading indicator and September retail sales data (both due Friday). The median forecast is for the KOF headline to ebb to 107.0 in the headline reading from September’s 113.8 level.

AlphaBetaStock’s team is constantly looking for opportunities to invest in income or growth stocks. Our current list of stocks we are watching and their current trend is listed below. Please note, that a bullish trend does not necessarily mean buy nor does a bear trend mean sell because the financial advisor or investor’s strategy may overrule it. Actually, in some cases, we purchase stocks that are dipping or in a short term bear trend.

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