ABS Report (Premium Edition) – Oct. 12th 2020

The craziness continues in DC as Negotiations in Washington over the size and composition of another stimulus package will remain a focus this week. It has been on-again, off-again between the GOP and Democrats in regard to a new stimulus bill, and anything seems possible given the strong incentive to posture ahead of the November 3 elections.

In Europe and the UK, surging new virus cases and the plethora of new restrictions threaten the recovery and have the ECB and BoE contemplating additional accommodation. Meanwhile, the Brexit endgame nears and this week’s summit should find both sides posturing, while slowly inching toward a deal. Asia’s thin docket features trade, CPI and PPI from China.

Despite all the machinations in Washington, and increasing worries over spike in virus case and renewed shutdowns in Europe, global stocks finished higher on the week. In fact, even with all the wrangling over the stimulus package, Wall Street had its best performance in over three months as investors kept the faith that something will eventually come to pass in terms of more spending. The markets were whipsawed early in the week as President Trump put the kybosh on talks, only to have optimism for a standalone deal shattered by Speaker Pelosi who reversed her apparent support for airline and small business relief.

But investors remained positive over stimulus and were rewarded on Friday by reports the White House had offered a $1.8 tln package (according to people familiar with the deal). In comments on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show he said “I would like to see a bigger stimulus package than frankly either the Democrats of Republicans are offering…I’d like to see money going to people.”

Wall Street ended the week in the green with the NASDAQ 4.56% firmer, the S&P 500 up 3.84%, and the Dow 3.27% higher. Core European bourses finished with gains of 1.94% to 2.85%, while the Nikkei rallied 2.56%, and China’s Shanghai rose 1.68%.

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Included In This Week’s Report

  • Key Index & Sector Trends – Determine which sectors or areas are trending up or down.
  • Key Market Drivers – What will push up or down the markets.
  • Global Market Analysis – Get a high-level picture of the US and global economy.
  • Stocks to Watch – Key blue-chip and income stocks to watch.
  • Economic Calendar – Find out what is happening this week.
  • Markets jumpy on U.S. stimulus uncertainties, election jitters, virus, lockdowns, Brexit: (Bullish Driver) A “Stimulus Agreement” would likely cause the market to jump up and breakthrough resistance.
  • Q3 earnings season kicks off with big banks, including Citigroup, BoA, Wells Fargo: (Bullish Driver) We think that earnings and outlook should be positive or better than expected because companies typically leak negative reports a few weeks in advance.
  • Fedspeak includes VCs Clarida, Quarles; Barkin, Daly, Kaplan, Kashkari, Williams: (Bullish Driver) It is expected that the Fed will make positive statements and saying they are monitoring the markets but not expected to infuse anything more unless needed.
  • The Treasury market closed Monday for Columbus Day; Canada closed for Thanksgiving  
  • Attention turns to U.S. data on retail sales, production, consumer sentiment, CPI
  • China trade, CPI, PPI; Japan machine orders, production; Bank Indonesia seen steady
  • ECB laying groundwork for change in inflation target, extension of PEPP program
  • Brexit October 15 summit looms, can the EU and UK compromise
  • German ZEW economic sentiment, HICP; Eurozone CPI data due
S&P Continues a BULLISH trend and is close to breaking the R1.
LastCHG %CHGHIGHLOWTREND
Dow28586.90.57%161.3928676.2928440.63Strong Bull
S&P 5003477.130.88%30.33482.343458.07Strong Bull
Crude (WTI)40.013-1.27%-0.51540.54639.789Bull
Gold1926.01-0.18%-3.281933.121918.06Bull
10 Year0.63%-0.63%-0.0050.770.769Bull
Bitcoin/USD11289.85−0.73%−83.0811416.7711175.99Bull
US Dollar Index93.130.08%0.0793.2493.01Strong Bear
VIX25.170.68%0.1725.6524.14Strong Bear
REIT Index2034.4−0.42%−8.642055.992027.42Bull
S&P 500 SectorLASTCHG%CHGHIGHLOWTREND
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 1260.081.50%18.611262.311246.34Strong Bull
CONSUMER STAPLES 676.060.77%5.19678.9672.89Bull
HEALTH CARE 1263.330.88%11.051266.971255.96Strong Bull
INDUSTRIALS 682.050.40%2.69686.62680.24Strong Bull
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2114.081.54%32.082114.212082Strong Bull
MATERIALS 418.020.73%3.01419.82415.51Strong Bull
REAL ESTATE 228.95−0.30%−0.69230.98228.02Bull
COMMUNICATION SERVICES 198.570.77%1.52198.62197.05Bull
UTILITIES 322.55−0.04%−0.13324.56320.53Bull
FINANCIALS 419.120.07%0.28421.46416.11Bull
500 ENERGY 233.68−1.59%−3.78240.14233.34Bear

NORTH AMERICA

The U.S. Treasury market is closed Monday for Columbus Day, though Wall Street is open. It’s an important week of data, however, and includes several key reports that should reveal further encouraging news on the recovery. The strength seen so far in July and August data suggest about a 33% rebound in Q3 GDP. As for this week’s releases there’s retail sales, industrial production, regional manufacturing PMIs, consumer sentiment, and CPI. We expect September increases of 0.9% for headline retail sales (Friday) and 0.6% for the ex-auto figure, following respective August gains of 0.6% and 0.7%. Another month of strong vehicle sales should support, along with a continued rebound for sales of clothing, furniture, electronics, and appliances. There will also be fresh information on the manufacturing sector.

Industrial production (Friday) is projected to rise 0.9% in September, following the 0.4% August increase. Meanwhile, the October Empire State index (Thursday) is assumed to ease to 16.0 from 17.0 in September, having bounced from the all-time low of -78.2 in April. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is seen rising to 16.0 in October from 15.0 in September and is off the -56.6 level in April, the second lowest on record. The preliminary Michigan sentiment report (Friday) for October will provide the latest insight into the mindset of the consumer — the index is expected to climb to 82.0 from the 6-month high of 80.4 in September, and 74.1 in August. Also of interest are initial jobless claims (Thursday) for the week of October 10, which should remain elevated although we assume a -15k decline in the weekly pace to 825k after a -9k drop to 840k in the first week of October.

Inflation reports are expected to show a subdued price backdrop in September. We expect 0.2% September gains for both the CPI headline and core (Tuesday), following 0.4% gains for both in August. We expect 0.1% September PPI (Wednesday) gains for both the headline and the core. Import prices (Thursday) are estimated to rise 0.3% in September, alongside a 0.4% export price rise, after August gains of 0.9% imports and 0.5% for exports.

The Q3 earnings season begins this week, leaving a busy slate of results from large cap firms: Monday is empty. Tuesday brings J&J, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Blackrock, Fastenal, Delta Airlines, and First Republic Bank. Wednesday has UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Infosys, U.S. Bancorp, Progressive, PNC Financial, Wipro, and United Airlines. On Thursday, Honeywell, Morgan Stanley, Truist Financial, Ericsson, Walgreens Boots, and Dover are due. Friday has HDFC Bank, Bank of New York Mellon, V.F. Corp., Schlumberger, State Street, Kansas City Southern, NVR, J.B. Hunt, and Citizens Financial.

There’s another heavy dose of Fedspeak. They’ve all expressed support for the new framework, though there have been some differences with respect to the degree of concerns over the economy and the recovery. Attention will be on comments from VC Clarida (Wednesday) who will speak on the economic outlook and from VC Quarles who will discuss financial stability (Wednesday) and the response to COVID-19 (Thursday). Also on the calendar are Barkin, Daly, Kaplan, Bostic, Kashkari, and Williams.

Canada’s schedule of data is on the thin side in this holiday truncated week with markets closed Monday for Thanksgiving Day. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are seen falling -1.0% in August after the 7.0% bounce in July. Also of interest will be September existing home sales, which are expected Thursday and should show continued strength. Canada’s housing market has shot higher following a sharp drop in activity during March and April, led by low mortgage rates and lofty demand for single family dwellings amid the shift to working from home. Governor Macklem, speaking last week, said the Bank is on alert for signs of a bubble: “We will also watch for signs that housing markets are being driven higher by speculation that prices will keep rising.” And if households start to become “dangerously overextended, policy makers have several macroprudential tools they can use.” So while rates are not moving higher anytime soon, the Bank will take steps to keeps a bubble from forming in the housing market. Canada’s markets are closed Monday for the Thanksgiving holiday. BoC Deputy Governor Lane (Thursday) takes part in a panel discussion.

ASIA

This week’s regional calendar is relatively light, though it does feature China September trade, CPI and PPI. Japan reveals September PPI. India has August industrial production, CPI, WPI and trade figures. Elsewhere, production, growth and trade data dot the calendar. For central banks, Bank Indonesia meets and is expected to keep its 7-day reverse repo steady at 4.00%.

China has returned from its Golden Week holidays with a couple of important indicators slated. The September trade report (Tuesday) should see the surplus rise to $60.0 bln from $58.9 bln. It was at $20.1 bln in March and $45.2 bln in April. Exports have been recovering and were up 9.5% y/y in August from the pandemic weakness in the spring, though y/y imports have declined in the prior two months. September CPI and PPI (Thursday) are penciled in slowing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.4% for the former, and rising to -1.7% y/y from -2.0% for the latter. In Japan, August core machinery orders (Monday) are seen falling -2.0% m/m after rising 6.3% in July. September PPI (Monday) is forecast sliding to a -0.6% y/y clip from -0.5%. Revised August industrial production is due Wednesday, with the August tertiary industry index (Thursday) should bounce 1.5% after July’s -0.5% slip.

India’s September CPI (Monday) should tick up to 6.8% y/y from 6.7%, while August industrial production (Monday) is expected to post a -8.0% y/y rate from -10.4%. September WPI (Wednesday) likely rose to 1.0% y/y from 0.2%. The September trade deficit (Thursday) is seen narrowing to $5.0 bln from $6.8 bln. Malaysia August industrial production (Monday) is estimated to have slowed to 0.5% y/y from 1.2%. Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia meets (Tuesday) and should hold its 4.00% 7-day reverse repo steady at 4.00%. The September trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus narrow to $2.0 bln from $2.3 bln. Singapore‘s advance Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is penciled in contracting at a -6.0% y/y rate, less than half of the -13.2% in Q2. September non-oil exports (Friday) are forecast to have risen 14.0% y/y from 7.7% previously.

Australia’s docket features a speech from RBA Governor Lowe. The bank’s Tony Richards, Head of Payments Policy, speaks at a Cyrptocurrency and Fin Tech conference. Employment (Thursday) is expected to fall -50.0k in September after rising 111.0k in August. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 7.0% versus 6.8% in August. New Zealand’s calendar is empty of top tier data this week. CPI for Q3 is due next week. Last week, the RBNZ indicated it’s actively working on a negative rate stance. The next meeting is on November 11.

EUROPE

Eurozone: the ECB clearly is starting to lay the ground not just for a change in the official inflation target, away from the “close to, but below” to a fixed 2%, but also an extension of the PEPP program. Officials are increasingly concerned that the ongoing rise in Covid-19 numbers and the resulting tightening of restrictions will disrupt the still fragile recovery and against that background even ECB President Lagarde is fretting about the risk of “cliff-edge” scenarios. PEPP, which suspends the need to distribute purchases according to the central bank’s capital key for its duration, has been underpinning peripheral bond markets in particular, with even Italian bonds trading as though this wasn’t a country with deep structural problems and a huge debt burden.

Withdrawing that support without creating tensions will always be a difficult task as Italy’s underlying problems won’t go away with the end of the pandemic. Keeping this kind of stimulus in place for too long, however, risks not just reducing any incentive to implement the structural reforms needed to create more sustainable growth that would foster a reduction in debt in the long term, but also keeping companies alive that without support will struggle to survive. At the same time, political pressure on the ECB will increase with the reliance on bond purchases.

ECB moves aside, the October 15 Brexit summit is looming at the end of the week, although while that initially was taunted as a deadline, it is now likely to be little more than a chance to take stock of the state of talks and decide whether there are landing-zones in sight that would allow the start of “tunnel talks”. We see both sides slowly inching towards a deal even if there will be a lot of posturing ahead of and after the summit. Still, the final agreement is likely to be narrower in scope than hoped and will still cause disruptions on both sides of the channel.

The highlight of this week’s data calendar is ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday), where we expect a correction in the expectations reading 75.0 (median 74.0) from 77.4 in the previous month. There are risks to either side as much will depend on when answers came against the background of virus developments, Brexit talks and ECB comments, which have reflected a gradual shift just over the past week. Data are showing signs of weakness, but with markets continuing to focus on the prospect for further stimulus, the prospect of additional easing should keep investor confidence underpinned.

The rest of the calendar is mainly focused on final inflation data for September, which are widely expected to confirm preliminary readings, which would leave the German HICP rate (Tuesday) at -0.4% y/y and the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Friday) at -0.3% y/y. Negative headline numbers are mainly the result of the temporary cut in the German VAT rate and energy prices, which are still far below last year’s levels. Nevertheless, against the risk that virus developments will hit demand again and that inflation expectations will start to shift lower lastingly, officials are starting to fret about the risk of real deflation down the line, so the numbers will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB.

Events include ECB’s Lane and Villeroy on Wednesday. Italy sells bonds on Tuesday, Germany auctions 2050 bonds on Wednesday and Spain and France hit markets on Thursday.

U.K.: surging new Covid cases in the UK, the associated plethora of new restrictions, the Brexit endgame, and dovish BoE signaling, will remain dominant themes in the UK. August production and monthly GDP data disappointed. Month-on-month GDP rose 2.1%, down on the median forecast for 4.7% and moderating from July’s 6.4% expansion. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase, though the monthly GDP index remains 9.2% down on the pre-lockdown level seen in February. The outlook isn’t good given the surge in new Covid cases, both in the UK and in Europe. New restrictions, from travel limitations to pub closures to local lockdowns, are being introduced almost daily in the UK, and this will have a negative impact on economic activity. In this context, BoE Governor Bailey said that the central bank will use monetary policy “actively and aggressively” if needed, increasing the odds that the central bank will go negative on interest rates (the repo rate is presently at 0.10%).

As for Brexit, this week should bring decisive news on whether the EU and UK will be able to compromise sufficiently to allow for a future relationship deal to be made, with the start of the EU’s summit on Thursday (October 15) being marked as the effective deadline to allow time for the ratification process (in the event of a deal).

Despite the public brinkmanship and some confusing headlines, there have been reports from behind the scenes of motion toward finding a compromise on key issues from both UK and EU sources. Any news of a deal would likely boost sterling over the near term. But, even with a deal, and even with UK progress in signing continuity agreements with non-EU trading partners, the UK will see its terms of trade position deteriorate. It has also become increasingly clear that London’s European dominance in financial services will be eroded, deal or not.

Even with a tariff free, quota free deal, the loss of unfettered access to the single market and customs union will lead to a degree of trade destruction. Analysis by Oxford Economics and Baker McKenzie concluded that UK exporters will face cost-increasing non-tariff barriers, such as customs formalities and regulatory barriers. The same will be the case for EU exporters to the UK, though the impact will be much magnified on the UK side of the Channel. Productivity will also be impacted, given reduced competition and reduced scope for businesses to benefit from economies of scale. This will be accompanied by less investment. The government will of course work to offset these impacts with new global deals, and it has already signed many continuity agreements to cover for the loss of access to the EU’s free trade agreements, but the fact is the UK is set to be jolted into worse trading terms with or without a deal.

Financial services — the UK’s golden goose that accounts for 22% of government tax receipts — is a particular concern. A Bloomberg article last week highlighted the steady stream of financial services resources that are being moved out of the UK to the Eurozone, and the fact that even with a EU trade deal in place, London will likely continue to lose business to Eurozone financial centres as the “equivalence” regime on rules would leave firms with long-term uncertainty. As the Bloomberg piece pointed out, Brussels would be able to unilaterally decide if the UK’s rules are to its satisfaction, while European nations are bent on drawing business away from London over the long term.

As for the pound, which is the principal conduit of market expression with regard to Brexit, while some may argue that bad news has been “priced in”, the mechanism for a bear trend will materialize as trade and investment falls, with the consequence of net outflows of both non-speculative and speculative capital and increased pressure on the BoE to go negative with interest rates.

The UK data calendar this week is relatively quiet, highlighted by monthly labour market data (Tuesday), but this will be overshadowed by Brexit.

Switzerland: The Swiss data calendar is quiet, featuring PPI (Thursday). The Swiss franc has been continuing to trend steadily, consistently rebounding from bouts of weakness. This has seen EUR-CHF repeatedly ebbing back from brief forays above 1.0800. This reflects the chronic proclivity for the Swiss currency to rise in nominal terms, at the influence of incoming interest and other domestically owned investment receipts from assets held abroad, alongside the trade surplus. A higher franc drives down inflation, which to a degree offsets any loss in export competitiveness that a nominally firmer currency might otherwise entail, as there is a high import component in Swiss exports, which in turn helps perpetuate the trend. The SNB, however, remains committed to capping the gains in the franc. At its quarterly monetary policy review last month, it stated that the franc remains “highly valued” and said it is ready to “intervene more strongly in the foreign exchange market.

AlphaBetaStock’s team is constantly looking for opportunities to invest in income or growth stocks. Our current list of stocks we are watching and their current trend is listed below. Please note, that a bullish trend does not necessarily mean buy nor does a bear trend mean sell because the financial advisor or investor’s strategy may overrule it. Actually, in some cases, we purchase stocks that are dipping or in a short term bear trend.

NameSymbolStrategyTrend
3M CompanyMMMDividendBULL
Altria Group, Inc.MODividendBEAR
AmazonAMZNGrowthBULL
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVBUDDividendBULL
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.BIPDividendBULL
Defiance 5G Next Gen Connectivity ETFFIVGGrowthBULL
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.DDDividendBULL
eBay Inc.EBAYGrowthBULL
Emerson Electric Co.EMRDividendBULL
Enterprise Bancorp, Inc.EBTCDividendBULL
Genuine Parts CompanyGPCDividendBULL
Johnson & JohnsonJNJDividendBULL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.PYPLGrowthBULL
Peloton Interactive, Inc.PTONGrowthBULL
Quidel CorporationQDELGrowthBULL
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPGDividendBULL
Veritone, Inc.VERIGrowthBULL

Calendar

DATEETLOCALEINDICATOR – EVENTFORFORECASTMEDIANLAST
 11 Oct 19:50 Japan Machinery Orders x-Elec&Ship M/M  AUG -2.0%  6.3%
 11 Oct 19:50 Japan PPI Y/Y  SEP -0.6%  -0.5%
 11 Oct 19:50 Japan Liquidity (L) Y/Y  SEP   5.3%
 11 Oct 19:50 Japan Bank Loans Y/Y  SEP   6.7%
 11 Oct 19:50 Japan FX Reserves M/M USD  SEP   1.34B
 12 Oct 00:00 Malaysia Industrial Production Y/Y  AUG 0.5%  1.2%
 12 Oct 00:00 Malaysia Manufacturing Sales Y/Y AUG   1.9%
 12 Oct  United States Columbus Day – U.S. Bond Market & Fed Closed – Equities Open
 12 Oct  Canada Thanksgiving Day – CAN Markets Closed
 12 Oct 03:00 Turkey Unemployment Rate nsa  JUL   13.4%
 12 Oct 05:30 India Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP 6.8%  6.7%
 12 Oct 08:00 India Industrial Production Y/Y  AUG -8.0%  -10.4%
 12 Oct 09:00 United Kingdom BoE’s Haldane speaks
 12 Oct 09:00 Russia Trade Balance USD  AUG   4.3B
 12 Oct 09:00 Mexico Industrial Production Y/Y  AUG   -11.3%
 12 Oct 10:00 United Kingdom BoE’s Haskel speaks
 12 Oct 12:00 United Kingdom BoE’s Cunliffe speaks
 12 Oct 12:00 United Kingdom BoE’s Bailey speaks
 12 Oct 23:00 China Exports Y/Y  SEP   9.5%
 12 Oct 23:00 China Imports Y/Y  SEP   -2.1%
 12 Oct 23:00 China Trade Balance USD  SEP 60.0B  58.9B
 13 Oct 01:00 Indonesia BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate   4.00%  4.00%
 13 Oct 02:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Final  SEP -0.4%  -0.4% P
 13 Oct 02:00 Germany CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Final  SEP -0.4%  -0.4% P
 13 Oct 02:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (M/M) – Final  SEP -0.2%  -0.2% P
 13 Oct 02:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Final  SEP -0.2%  -0.2% P
 13 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change  SEP   73.7K
 13 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate  SEP   7.6%
 13 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)  AUG  4.3% 4.1%
 13 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings incl. bonuses (3M/Yr)  AUG  -0.5% -1.0%
 13 Oct 02:00 United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings excl. bonuses (3M/Yr)  AUG  0.6% 0.2%
 13 Oct 03:30 Sweden Consumer Price Index (M/M)  SEP   -0.1%
 13 Oct 03:30 Sweden Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP   0.8%
 13 Oct 03:30 Sweden CPIF (M/M)  SEP   -0.1%
 13 Oct 03:30 Sweden CPIF (Y/Y)  SEP   0.7%
 13 Oct 05:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment  OCT 75.0  77.4%
 13 Oct 05:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation  OCT -63.0  -66.2%
 13 Oct 05:00 Italy Italy sells bonds
 13 Oct 06:00 Portugal CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M)  SEP   0.8%
 13 Oct 06:00 Portugal CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y)  SEP   -0.7%
 13 Oct 06:00 Portugal Consumer Price Index (M/M)  SEP   1.0%
 13 Oct 06:00 Portugal Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP   -0.1%
 13 Oct 06:00 United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  SEP   100.2
 13 Oct 08:30 United States CPI  SEP 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
 13 Oct 08:30 United States CPI Y/Y  SEP 1.4%  1.3%
 13 Oct 08:30 United States CPI ex-Food & Energy  SEP 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
 13 Oct 08:30 United States CPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y  SEP 1.7%  1.7%
 13 Oct 08:55 United States Redbook 10/10    UNCH
 13 Oct 10:00 United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index  OCT 55.2 A  45.0
 13 Oct 12:25 Richmond Fed’s Barkin in virtual discussion
 13 Oct 19:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales – All (Y/Y)  SEP   3.9%
 13 Oct 19:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales – Same Store (Y/Y)  SEP   4.7%
 13 Oct 20:00 Singapore GDP Y/Y – advance  Q3 -6.0%  -13.2%
 13 Oct 20:00 San Francisco Fed’s Daly discusses economic inequality
 14 Oct 02:30 Japan Industrial Production SA Revised  AUG 1.7%  1.7%
 14 Oct 02:30 India Monthly WPI Y/Y  SEP 1.0%  0.2%
 14 Oct 03:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) Final  SEP UNCH  UNCH P
 14 Oct 03:00 Spain CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) Final  SEP -0.6%  -0.6% P
 14 Oct 03:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (M/M) Final  SEP 0.2%  0.2% P
 14 Oct 03:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) Final  SEP 0.4%  0.4% P
 14 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Industrial Production sa (M/M)  AUG 0.5%  4.1%
 14 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Industrial Production wda (Y/Y)  AUG   -7.7%
 14 Oct 05:30 Germany Germany sells EUR1 bln of 2050 Bunds
 14 Oct 07:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 10/09    4.6%
 14 Oct 08:30 United States PPI  SEP 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
 14 Oct 08:30 United States PPI Y/Y  SEP 0.2%  -0.2%
 14 Oct 08:30 United States PPI ex-Food & Energy  SEP 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
 14 Oct 08:30 United States PPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y  SEP 0.9%  0.6%
 14 Oct 08:35 Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks to Economic Outlook Conference
 14 Oct 09:00 Washington Fed VC Clarida speaks on economic outlook
 14 Oct 10:30 Washington Fed VC Quarles in discussion on financial stability
 14 Oct 14:00 Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks to Economic Club of New York
 14 Oct 14:20 New York NY Fed’s EVP Logan speaks on interconnectedness and risk in U.S. credit markets
 14 Oct 15:00 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, VC Quarles speak on financial supervision
 14 Oct 15:00 Argentina CPI Y/Y  SEP   40.7%
 14 Oct 15:00 Argentina CPI M/M  SEP   2.7%
 14 Oct 18:00 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan in townhall on economic development and implications for monetary policy
 14 Oct 20:00 European Union EU Summit
 14 Oct 21:30 Australia Employment  SEP -50.0K  111.0K
 14 Oct 21:30 Australia Unemployment Rate  SEP 7.0%  6.8%
 14 Oct 21:30 China CPI Y/Y  SEP 2.0%  2.4%
 14 Oct 21:30 China PPI Y/Y  SEP -1.7%  -2.0%
 15 Oct 00:00 Indonesia Trade Balance USD  SEP 2.0B  2.3B
 15 Oct 00:00 Indonesia Exports Y/Y  SEP   -8.4%
 15 Oct 00:00 Indonesia Imports Y/Y  SEP   -24.2%
 15 Oct 00:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index M/M SA  AUG 1.5%  -0.5%
 15 Oct 01:30 India Trade Balance-CC  SEP -$5.0B  -$6.8B
 15 Oct 02:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (M/M)  SEP   -0.4%
 15 Oct 02:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (Y/Y)  SEP   -3.5%
 15 Oct 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M)  SEP 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% P
 15 Oct 02:45 France CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y)  SEP UNCH UNCH UNCH P
 15 Oct 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (M/M)  SEP -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% P
 15 Oct 02:45 France Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% P
 15 Oct 04:00 Italy Industrial Orders sa (M/M)  AUG   3.7%
 15 Oct 04:00 Italy Industrial Orders (Y/Y)  AUG   -7.2%
 15 Oct 04:00 Italy Industrial Sales sa (M/M)  AUG   8.1%
 15 Oct 04:00 Italy Industrial Sales nsa (Y/Y)  AUG   8.1%
 15 Oct 04:45 Spain Spain sells bonds
 15 Oct 04:50 France France sells bonds
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Index  OCT 16.0 15.0 15.0
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Empire State Index  OCT 16.0 15.0 17.0
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Export Price Index  SEP 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Import Price Index  SEP 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Import Price Index ex-Petro  SEP 0.6%  0.7%
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Initial Claims 10/10  825K 828K 840K
 15 Oct 08:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims 10/03  10,850K  10,976K
 15 Oct 09:00 Russia Industrial Production (Y/Y)  SEP   -7.2%
 15 Oct 09:00 Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks on benefits cliffs
 15 Oct 09:45 United States Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 10/11    48.0
 15 Oct 10:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Stocks 10/09    75B
 15 Oct 11:00 United States Treasury Announces 5-Year TIPS
 15 Oct 11:00 United States Treasury Announces 20-Yr Bonds
 15 Oct 11:00 Dallas Fed’s Kaplan in virtual discussion hosted by U.S. India Chamber of Commerce
 15 Oct 11:00 Washington Fed VC Quarles discusses response to COVID-19
 15 Oct 11:00 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks 10/09    0.5M
 15 Oct 11:00 United States EIA Gasoline Stocks 10/09    -1.4M
 15 Oct 11:00 United States EIA Distillate Stocks 10/09    -1.0M
 15 Oct 11:00 Colombia Retail Sales Y/Y  AUG   -12.4%
 15 Oct 12:00 Peru Unemployment Rate  SEP   15.6%
 15 Oct 15:00 Colombia Industrial Production Y/Y  AUG   -10.8%
 15 Oct 16:30 United States M2 – Week Ended 10/05    -$67.5B
 15 Oct 17:00 Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari speaks on the economic outlook
 15 Oct 18:00 Chile Central Bank Overnight Rate     0.50%
 15 Oct 20:30 Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Export Y/Y  SEP 14.0%  7.7%
 16 Oct 04:00 Philippines FX Reserves USD  SEP   98.6B
 16 Oct 04:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (M/M) – Final  SEP 1.0%  1.0% P
 16 Oct 04:00 Italy CPI – EU Harmonized (Y/Y) – Final  SEP -0.9%  -0.9% P
 16 Oct 04:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (M/M) – Final  SEP -0.6%  -0.6% P
 16 Oct 04:00 Italy CPI – NIC incl. tobacco (Y/Y) – Final  SEP -0.5%  -0.5% P
 16 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (M/M)  SEP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% P
 16 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)  SEP -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% P
 16 Oct 05:00 Eurozone CPI – Core (Y/Y)  SEP 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% P
 16 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Trade Balance sa (Eur)  AUG 17.0B  20.3B
 16 Oct 05:00 Eurozone Trade Balance nsa (Eur)  AUG   27.9B
 16 Oct 05:00 Italy Trade Balance – Total (Eur)  AUG   9.7B
 16 Oct 08:30 United States Retail Sales  SEP 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%
 16 Oct 08:30 United States Retail Sales ex-Auto  SEP 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments M/M  AUG -1.0%  7.0%
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada Unfilled Orders (Manufacturing)  AUG   -1.2%
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada New Orders (Manufacturing)  AUG   9.0%
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada Manufacturing Inventories  AUG   -0.8%
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada Manufacturing I/S Ratio  AUG   1.63
 16 Oct 08:30 Canada International Securities Transactions  AUG   -C$8.5B
 16 Oct 09:15 United States Industrial Production  SEP 0.9% 0.7% 0.4%
 16 Oct 09:15 United States Capacity Utilization  SEP 72.1% 71.9% 71.4%
 16 Oct 09:45 New York Fed’s Williams speaks on culture and communities
 16 Oct 10:00 United States Business Inventories  AUG 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
 16 Oct 10:00 United States Michigan Sentiment Prelim  OCT  81.0 80.4
 16 Oct 11:00 Colombia Trade Balance USD  AUG   -$902M
 16 Oct 14:00 United States Treasury Budget  SEP -$124.0B -$124.0B -$200.1B
 16 Oct 16:00 United States Net Long-Term Security Purchases  AUG $20.0B  $10.8B
 16 Oct 16:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows  AUG $30.0B  -$88.7B
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