ABS Report (Premium Edition) – Nov. 9th 2020

The dollar posted fresh lows, continuing last week’s theme as global stock markets and commodity prices surged. EUR-USD posted an eight-week high at 1.1899, while the DXY dollar index concurrently printed new two-month low at 92.13. Sharp weakness in the Japanese currency saw USD-JPY buck the dollar weakening theme. The pair rose by over 0.5% in climbing back above 103.80. Last week’s eight-month low at 103.17 was left unchallenged, with the yen returning to form as an inverse correlate of risk appetite in global markets.

Bull Driver – The biggest gainers were the dollar bloc currencies, alongside many currencies of newly developed and developing nations, which rallied strongly as risk-on positioning intensified on news from Pfizer, which stated that its candidate Covid-19 vaccine was 90% effective. Markets are also responding to the emerging likelihood of a Biden presidency and a Republican Senate. This is seen as a Goldilocks outcome from Wall Street’s perspective, increasing the prospect for fiscal stimulus while decreasing the prospect for tax hikes and regulation that a Democrat-controlled Congress would likely entail. Japan’s finance minister said that policymakers there are watching currency levels with a sense of “urgency,” which may have helped USD-JPY higher.

It can be expected that at least some of the upcoming slew of ECB policymaker signaling, which will include President Lagarde, will be explicit in the unwanted tightening effect of a rising exchange rate following the biggest weekly rise in EUR-USD in nearly four months, which may explain the stalling upside momentum in the pair. USD-CAD dove to a 10-month low at 1.2964, with the Canadian dollar buoyed by a near 8% surge in oil prices. AUD-USD rallied to a near two-month peak at 0.7329, which marked a near 3.5% gain from week-ago levels.

Included In This Week’s Report

• Key Index & Sector Trends – Determine which sectors or areas are trending up or down.
• Market Drivers – What will push up or down the markets.
• Global Market Analysis – Get a high-level picture of the US and global economy.
• Stocks to Watch – Key blue-chip and income stocks to watch.
• Economic Calendar – Find out what is happening this week.

Key Drivers for the Week of Nov 9 – Nov 13

·  U.S. presidential election result remains in limbo, Senate control up in the air too

·  U.S. data calendar light with CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment, and initial claims

·  Treasury to auction record $122 November refunding: of 3-, 10-, 30-year paper

·  ECB’s Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Bailey speak on central banking  

·  Brexit developments in the spotlight: EU’s Barnier warned serious differences remain

·  RBNZ expected to leave policy steady, but actively working on negative rate stance

·  Eurozone GDP, production slated; German ZEW confidence, trade, HICP data awaited

·  UK calendar has employment, GDP, and industrial production reports

Major Market Trends

S&P 500 Sectors

Week Ahead: Stuck in U.S. Election Limbo

The markets will remain focused on the results of the U.S. election, with the presidential vote and control of the Senate still up in the air. The expected surge of support for Democrats did not materialize, however, leaving a likely divided government that was cheered by equities. However, uncertainty over the composition of the Senate crept in last Friday, and the possibility that Senate control will not be decided until January could make for nervous markets this week. In Europe, the focus should shift back to Brexit developments. Also, a number of ECB speakers will be scrutinized for more details about the comprehensive set of measures planned for the December policy meeting. In Asia, a relatively uneventful docket has China CPI and PPI.

NORTH AMERICA

The U.S. election chaos remains all-consuming as the results have a major consequence for policy and the markets. While votes are still being tallied, the election appears to have resulted in a change to the U.S. government that was less radical than feared, with equities initially finding a lot to like in the probable gridlock in Congress. Wall Street had its best week since April, led by the NASDAQ’s 9.0% surge, with the S&P 500 up 7.3%, and the Dow 6.87% higher. The indexes rallied on the likelihood of moderate stimulus but with fiscal restraint, no onerous tax increase, or draconian regulatory measures that were feared amid a “blue wave.” FAANG stocks reigned supreme on the sharp reduction in the likelihood that Congress will start an antitrust investigation into top technology firms. However, renewed uncertainty crept in on Friday as the contest for control of the Senate remained undecided, while profit-taking also featured.

The uncertainty over the Senate race centers on whether Republicans can retain the majority — it is looking like that will not be known until special elections in Georgia are held on January 5. Meanwhile, the Presidential election continues to be tallied, with lawsuits possibly dragging it out for many more days and weeks. Control of the House looks to be just barely maintained by the Democrats. Hence, the markets may be stuck in election limbo for the foreseeable future, with choppy, uncommitted trading.

Amidst the election chaos, the October employment report provided some real news, confirming that labor market activity continued to rise at a solid pace with little slowing from the summer rate. Broadly, divergent trajectories for many macro aggregates have emerged in the pandemic economy as most families, sectors, and regions are participating in the boom, but some are not. Payrolls have only recovered 55% of the Q2 drop due to the workweek surge, as those with jobs work longer while many low-wage workers remain unemployed. The consumer goods sector of the economy, and equipment spending ex-aircraft, are operating at new all-time highs, just as activity in the service sector remains depressed. Housing is displaying a powerful boom. The national consumption basket continues to shift, and the divergence between “winners” and “losers” with this behavioral shift continues to widen.

The few economic reports due in this week will not meaningfully alter the big picture. Note that Treasury market will be closed Wednesday for Veterans Day. The preliminary November Michigan sentiment report (Friday) might be the most important release for the week. It is expected to rise to 84.0 from 81.8 in October, which would be the best since March. Inflation data has become largely irrelevant for now given the FOMC’s shift to an average rate stance which isn’t expected to elicit a policy shift for several years. October CPI (Thursday) is expected to post gains of 0.2% for both the headline and core (Thursday) following an identical increase in September. A flat October PPI headline gain (Friday) is projected with 0.2% for the core. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) for the week of November 7 should fall -26k to 725k, after a -7k drop to 758k previously.

Supply heats up with the record $122 bln November refunding auctions. Recent offerings haven’t been great and it will be interesting to see the degree of demand these maturities. The offerings include a $54 bln 3-year (Monday), a $41 bln 10-year (Tuesday), and a $27 bln 30-year Thursday. These offerings will raise $61.1 bln in new cash. The debt managers also indicated they planned to increase auction sizes at a slower pace than seen since March. That, and the expectation of a divided government, gave bonds a big boost on Wednesday. However, the market has been cheapening since then with further concessions Friday. The 30-year underperformed with the wi rising 8 bps to 1.605%. The wi 10-year finished 5.5 bps higher at 0.818%, with the wi 3-year up 1.5 bps to 0.210%.

There’s a heavy Fedspeak calendar, but in the aftermath of a very uneventful FOMC meeting last week, we don’t expect any revelations. However, comments from an ECB Forum on monetary policy (Thursday) featuring ECB’s Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and BoE’s Bailey will highlight. The week’s other Fedspeakers include Mester, Kaplan, Rosengren, Quarles, Brainard, Evans, Williams, and Bullard.

The corporate earnings calendar thins out a bit this week, but still features a number of heavy hitters. Monday has McDonald’s, Ringcentral, XP, Simon Property, Occidental Petroleum, Zoominfo, Black Knight, and IFF. Tuesday brings Rocket Companies, Datadog, Alcon, Rockwell Automation, Tencent Musix, D.R. Horton, BioNTech, Warmer Music, Grifols, Autohome, Advance Auto Parts, and Lyft. Wednesday has Air Products, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Manulife, Royalty Pharma, Trip.com, CGI, Atmos Energy, Reynolds Consumer Products, and NetApp. Thursday gives us Walt Disney, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Brookfield Asset Management, Mizuho, Unity Software, Transdigm, GoodRx, Wix.com, KB Financial, Weibo, and Algonquin Power. Friday has Honda, Li Auto, and DraftKings.

Canada‘s data calendar contains nothing of consequence this week. The employment report, released last Friday, showed the labour reverting to a more typical monthly gain in October of 83.6k after the reopening surge left an all-time high 952.9k jump in June (May grew 289.6k) that was followed by 245.8k to 418.5k monthly gains from July to September. With the initial pop to the recovery behind us and the run-up in virus cases this fall injecting fresh uncertainty into the outlook, this report is consistent with the BoC’s expectations that they will hold rates at 0.25% into 2023. Wednesday is the Remembrance Day holiday — bonds and the BoC are closed but stocks are open. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks on Exploring Life Post-COVID (Thursday). The BoC releases the Senior Loan Officer Survey (Friday).

ASIA

Though the world will remain fixated on the U.S. elections, regional markets will be sensitive to this week’s data calendar that includes a mix of GDP, inflation, manufacturing, and trade reports. China will feature October CPI and PPI, along with loan data. The October trade report was released over the weekend and revealed a wider surplus of $58.4 bln from $37.0 bln in September. That was a function of an 11.4% surge in exports after a 9.9% gain, and a 4.7% increase in imports from 13.2% previously. It continues to show China recovering smartly, and is now benefiting from the the pick up in global activity. In Japan, September current account and October PPI figures are due. The market will also keep an eye on the pandemic, the shutdowns in Europe, and their potential impact on the global growth outlook. The only regional central bank meeting comes from New Zealand’s RBNZ, where its official cash rate is seen unchanged at the record low 0.25%.

China releases October CPI and PPI (Tuesday). Consumer prices are expected to slow to a 0.5% y/y pace from 1.7%, while PPI is little changed at -2.0% y/y from -2.1%. October loan growth and new yuan loan figures are due Tuesday as well. Japan‘s September current account (Tuesday) should see the surplus narrow slightly to JPY 2,000.0 bln from JPY 2,102.8 bln. September core machine orders (Thursday) are expected to fall 2.0% m/m after edging up 0.2% in August. September PPI (Thursday) is forecast at collapsing to a -2.1% y/y rate from -0.2%. The September tertiary industry index (Thursday) likely rose 1.0% from 0.8% previously. October bank loans are due Tuesday.

Taiwan October exports (Monday) are expected to slow to a7.0% y/y pace from 9.4% previously. South Korea October unemployment (Wednesday) is seen dipping to 3.8% from 3.9%. India October trade report (Thursday) should see the deficit widen to -$9.0 bln from -$2.7 bln. October CPI (Thursday) is estimated at 7.0% y/y from 7.3%, while September industrial production (Thursday) should post a -1.5% y/y decline from -8.0%. Malaysia September manufacturing production (Monday) is penciled in rising at a 3.0% y/y clip from 0.3% previously. Q3 GDP (Friday) likely improved to -5.0% y/y from -17.1% in Q2. Q3 current account figures are due Friday as well. Philippines Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is forecast improving to -8.0% y/y from -16.5% previously.

Australia’s calendar is thin this week. There are no RBA speakers. Last week, the RBA increased stimulus to ensure recovery. As expected, the bank announced a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. The RBA cut its key interest rate to 0.1% from 0.25%, as was widely anticipated. It also announced that it will buy AUD 100 bln of government bonds with maturities of around 5-10 years over the next six month. These include the federal government, as well as state and territory debt, with a split of around 80-20. Furthermore, the bank announced that the rate paid to commercial banks for their deposits at the central bank will be cut to zero. The focus is on lowering refinancing costs, with comments from Governor Lowe also suggesting that the banks hopes to keep a lid on the exchange rate. As for negative rates, Governor Lowe said he sees no appetite to go there.

New Zealand’s docket is highlighted by the RBNZ meeting (Wednesday). At the last meeting, the RBNZ indicated it is actively working on a negative rate stance, but we do not see rates moving under zero until next year. Indeed, we expect no change to the 0.25% rate setting this week. However, a business-focused funding program is likely to be introduced at the meeting.

EUROPE

Eurozone: the focus should be shifting back to Brexit developments this week. The time table is already looking incredibly tight. EU officials estimate that it will need at least 6 weeks to get any agreement passed in time and EU parliament members have warned that they will need to get sufficient time to scrutinize a deal before signing it off. So far there is no sign of a breakthrough yet and EU chief negotiator Barnier warned last Wednesday that very serious differences remain on the three major sticking points – level playing field rules, governance, and fisheries.

The latter is the area where the EU will likely be able to make the most concessions to give Johnson something to sell as a victory to the Brexiteers at home. On level playing field rules and governance, the U.K.’s Internal Market Bill, which violates the Withdrawal Agreement, has only hardened the EU’s resolve to insist on strict and enforceable guidelines. Ultimately we expect a deal to come off, but it is likely to be a narrow one that will be disruptive for both sides and add to the problems virus developments are creating.

The data calendar is mainly backward looking, but includes German ZEW Investor Confidence (Tuesday) for November, which is likely to register the marked correction in stock markets over the past month and the return to stricter lockdowns in Europe, although with stock market sentiment stabilizing during the first November week, there is some chance of an upside surprise. We are looking for a drop to 49.5 (median 41.9) from 56.1 in the previous month.

Economic activity is expected to contract again in the last quarter of the year thanks to Covid-19 measures, but the second estimate of Q3 data should confirm the strong rebound that was revealed by preliminary numbers. We expect Eurozone GDP at 12.7% q/q (median same), unchanged from the preliminary release. German September trade data (Monday) and Eurozone production numbers (Thursday) are both for September and will give background information in the absence of a full breakdown for GDP, but won’t change the overall outlook. The same holds for the final reading of German HICP (Thursday), which is expected to be confirmed at -0.5% y/y, partly thanks to base effects from oil prices and of course Germany’s temporary cut to the VAT rate, but also due to weak domestic demand against the background of virus restrictions.

The ECB has already announced that it is preparing a comprehensive set of measures for the December policy meeting, which will likely focus on asset purchases and an expansion of both the regular program and PEPP. Interest rates for targeted loans may also be under discussion as well as a tweak to the official inflation target. Comments from the likes of Rehn, Mersch, Knot and Lagarde will be scrutinised for more details on what the ECB is looking at, while the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday is expected to confirm the pessimistic take on the economic outlook that is making more monetary support necessary.

U.K.: EU trade negotiator Barnier raised eyebrows earlier last week by stating that “very serious divergences remain” with the UK. The message has since been repeated by other officials. This naturally raises the spectre of a no deal scenario, though markets have evidently not been perturbed judging by the steady performance of the pound. All things Brexit go down to the wire, and the general expectation remains for a last minute climbdown. The final deadline for a trade deal is understood to be November 15th, which would allow the minimum time for the EU to undertake the ratification process of a deal in time for UK’s exit from the common market on January 1.

Reports have continued to highlight that the principal two sticking points remain fishing rights and state aid rules. Given the win-win and lose-lose choice that confronts both sides, the incentive to reach a deal is there (while a narrow free trade deal may leave both sides with worse terms of trade compared to the prevailing arrangement, a no-deal would still be much worse than a narrow deal). There have been signs that a compromise is possible in the case of fisheries, and a doable walk around in the case of level playing field rules, but the problem so far is that neither side has been willing to the first mover in the concession game, presumably for fear of showing weakness. The bearing down of a final deadline should break the stand-off.

While fishing makes only a fractional contribution to GDP, it is a politically sensitive issue on both sides of the Channel, and is totemic for Brexit ideologues in the UK. The UK wants a Norway-like agreement on fishing, where quotas are agreed annually, which most EU states see as reasonable. France is understood to have been the most hawkish of the EU’s “coastal eight” on fishing rights, and needs to make concessions on its demand for unchanged access to UK waters, having previously threatened, along with Spain, to veto and trade deal if it doesn’t get what it wants. But, EU’s Barnier hinted last week that the UK could see its fishing quotas double, and French Europe minister Beaune said that “we would like a deal” to preserve France’s fishing access to UK waters (a no deal would be zero access). A recent Reuters article also cited French fishing industry sources saying that Macron’s government have warned them to expect a smaller catch from UK waters.

As for the state issue, the BBC reported that EU diplomats are hoping that “guiding principles” in place of strict adherence to level playing field rules, alongside measures to resolve future disputes, will be the route to compromise on this front.

The pound would likely rally on news of a breakthrough, although not by much unless the deal is broader than the narrow agreement that most anticipate. The UK’s National Audit Office also warned of “significant” border disruption in January, even in the event that a deal has been made.

It should be considered that the EU and UK might conceivably surprise with a much more comprehensive deal than is generally being expected. The Covid situation may be a motivation for this, and it should be remembered that the two sides are starting from perfect equivalence, so a broad agreement is feasible. Even some Brexit ideologues in the UK have suggested that maintaining close alignment with EU rules — for now — may be the more pragmatic way forward given the Covid crisis, before diverging from EU rules in an evolving process over time. The central criteria for the pound’s future trajectory will be what impact any deal has on the UK’s terms of trade. The narrower any trade deal is, the bigger the negative impact on the UK’s trading position will be on January 1.

Another factor to consider is the U.S. election. The prospect of a Biden presidency is seen as less favorable to the UK winning a broad trade deal with the U.S. than would be the case with a Trump presidency, which may force Boris Johnson into a more compromising posture in the final run of negotiations. The wait for a clear winner is likely to have been an incentive for both the EU and UK to stall the final negotiating push.

The UK data calendar this week features the monthly employment report (Tuesday), where the unemployment is expected to tick higher, to 4.8% in the official figure for September, and September industrial production and GDP data (Thursday). The median forecast for production is 0.5% m/m gain, which would still leave the y/y figure at -6.0%, improving from -6.4% y/y in the prior month. September GDP is seen rising by 1.1% m/m.

Switzerland: The Swiss data calendar is sparse, featuring unemployment and PPI inflation figures.

AlphaBetaStock’s team is constantly looking for opportunities to invest in income or growth stocks. Our current list of stocks we are watching and their current trend is listed below. Please note, that a bullish trend does not necessarily mean buy nor does a bear trend mean sell because the financial advisor or investor’s strategy may overrule it. Actually, in some cases, we purchase stocks that are dipping or in a short term bear trend.

Calendar