US Covid-19 Deaths - Are we bending the curve

Economy is Restarting – Bullish S&P 500 Outlook (Ignore the Hype)

Contrary to most headlines, the COVID-19 outbreak in the US has improved and the number of infections are deaths are on the decline. Gottlieb is currently a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. He shared on Twitter that national data from last week indicated that “National data from this past week suggest that the U.S. is starting to experience a sustained and sharper decline in new COVID-19 cases after a period of extended plateau,” former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

Just last week, Gottlieb said the cases in New York continue growing, but he is concerned that the true picture is being distorted because NY is the dominant part of the data. He is concerned about the outbreak in the rest of our country as it wanes, and we’re concerned that this skews the overall picture because states are dominant parts of that data.

According to the CDC, the data show that light aerosols can transmit the coronavirus.

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“Consumers are better off wearing a mask than not wearing a mask,” Gottlib said and argues for a strong recovery in the US economy, but not in New York or California.

The best protection is an N95 mask, but they are very hard to find.

US Daily Coronavirus Deaths
US Daily Coronavirus Deaths

The significance of Gottlieb’s comments was underscored last week by a statement from Admiral Brett Giroir, the U.S. assistant secretary for health. The testing allows for faster screening and can deliver results within 15 minutes, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

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Giroir said Quidel will be able to distribute 300,000 antigen tests a day over the next few weeks. The nation is also expected to conduct 40 to 50 million tests a month, up from nine million so far.

By using masks to reduce infection rates, it will make the testing process even faster because there will be fewer people who need tests. If we can confirm that they are positive, they are more likely to test others and limit the spread of the disease. Although tests are great, it is even better if you have a low baseload of cases, so there will be a smaller number of people who need tests and a lower risk of infection.

Market Bottomline

Money managers on Wall Street tend to buy and sell when they can be sure, and sell when there is uncertainty.

Together with increased testing, this should improve the chances of a sustainable economic recovery in the future. In order for the domestic economy to fully get back on track and remain open, we must find a way to bridge the gap between the mass production of therapies and vaccines.

It is will be likely that masks and social distancing will become part of the new new “normal.” These help to reduce the likelihood of infection spreading and bring more certainty back to the economic outlook.

If these practices can be better deployed across the country, they should enable analysts and investors to be more optimistic about earnings potential and prospects. This, in turn, will further support and drive up S & P 500 index valuations.

Earnings Today

BDR, DKNG, JD, PLXP, VFC, and ZCOR before the open.

Economic Calendar

Japanese Domestic CGPI for April
Chinese Energy Production for April
Chinese Cumulative Fixed Investment for April
Chinese Industrial Output for April
German Preliminary GDP for Q1 (2 a.m.)
French Final CPI for April (2:45 a.m.)
Eurozone Preliminary GDP for Q1 (5 a.m.)
Eurozone Trade Balance for March (5 a.m.)
Empire State Index for May (8:30 a.m.)
Capacity Utilization for April (9:15 a.m.)
Manufacturing, Industrial Production for April (9:15 a.m.)
Business Inventories for March (10 a.m.)
University of Michigan Sentiment for May (10 a.m.)
JOLTS Job Openings for March (10 a.m.)
Baker Hughes Rig Count Data (1 p.m.)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (3:30 p.m.)
Net Long-Term Security Purchases, TIC Flows for March (4 p.m.)

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