Oil prices rose significantly on Wednesday, receiving support from a report from the US Department of Energy, according to which US oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.699 million barrels over the week as of October 18, after rising by 9.281 million barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 2.232 million barrels. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.600 million barrels per day, while refining capacity grew by 2.1% to 85.2%, which exceeded market forecasts of +0.9%.
EUR showed a slight increase against USD on Wednesday, despite the fact that during the day the instrument mainly declined. Some pressure on EUR was exerted by macroeconomic statistics released on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the level of Consumer Confidence in the euro area in October fell from –6.5 to –7.6 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –6.7 points. Today, the pair is strengthening again. Investors are waiting for statistics on business activity from Markit in the euro area in October, as well as the publication of the ECB decision on deposit and interest rates, followed by a press conference. It is expected that the European regulator will not change the basic parameters of monetary policy, but may resort to additional support measures before the end of the year.
GBP strengthened against USD yesterday, recovering from a steady decline on Tuesday. The focus of investors remains on the situation with Brexit. Optimism from the approval by the British parliament of the agreement with the EU quickly gave way to negative sentiment, since Boris Johnson’s initial plans do not seem to come true. The UK is again forced to ask for a postponement, which threatens with another delay and the further development of the internal political crisis.
AUD showed flat dynamics on Wednesday, ending the daily session with almost no result. There are practically no interesting macroeconomic statistics at the market, therefore the movement of the instrument is mainly of a technical nature. In addition, the same factors remain in the focus of attention: trade negotiations between China and the United States and the situation around Brexit. Today, the instrument is trading with a slight decrease. Pressure on AUD is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia on business activity. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in October showed a decrease from 52.4 to 50.8 points with a forecast of 52.2 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 50.3 to 50.1 points, which was significantly better than market forecasts of 49.0 points.
USD showed moderate growth against JPY yesterday, but again returned to decline during the Asian session on October 24. The growth of USD is facilitated by a number of technical factors, while the macroeconomic background of the instrument remains ambiguous. Additional pressure on the yen is exerted by the expectation of the Bank of Japan meeting, which will be held next week. Given the latest macroeconomic statistics from Japan, it is likely that the regulator can take additional measures to stimulate the economy and lower interest rates. Today, JPY is growing, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in October fell from 48.9 to 48.5 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 48.8 points.