Durable goods orders declined in September. Sequentially, durable goods fell 1.1 percent after an improvement of 0.3 percent improved in the previous month. The upper line was slightly weaker than the consensus expectations of a 0.7% decrease. As expected, most orders in the transport category, which decreased by 2.7 percent, were due to a fall in the category of unprotected aircraft and motor vehicles and parts. It is likely that most of the vandalism in transportation will show transitory effects, and that Boeing orders will continue to decline after a sharp increase in July and motor vehicle orders that may be back in the middle of GM’s strike. September, Barclays said in an investigation report.
Excluding the category of transport volatility, orders fell 0.2 percent sequentially and increased 0.3 percent revised in August. Most of the weakness of September focused on the category of “exposure of non-air defense capital goods.” In addition to transportation, orders of 2.1 percent fell on a three-month security base, returning to the road beyond a series of impressions that were a little less daunting from May to August.
“With harmful foundations, including a global picture of global growth, the strong dollar and greater uncertainty about global growth and trade policy, we expect weak suspension orders in the coming months. Today’s data indicates that there is undoubtedly a continuing weakness in constant business investment due to the uncertainty that arises from the commercial tension between the United States and China in September, “said Barclays.
Orders for key capital goods decreased 0.5 percent in September after a revised sequential decline of 0.6 percent in August. The September estimate was slightly stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.1% drop.
“Weak readings for orders for key capital goods in August and September have led to stronger readings from May to July, with Barclays placing larger orders in line with the continuing weaknesses of the indicators in advance. ISM manufacturing index “.
The eurozone purchasing managers index was published earlier today. It shows that the euro area economy is likely to grow only slightly in the second half of 2019, Commerzbank said in a research report. The purchasing managers index for the services sector increased only 0.2 points to 51.8 in October. Therefore, the fall of 1.9 points in September was no more important. The manufacturing index remained at 45.7. This is the lowest value since the end of the recession in 2012.
The service sector has been able to decouple from the slowdown in manufacturing. However, recently, there seems to be some cracks in this main pillar of the economy. Although the sector continues to grow, the growth rate has decreased significantly in summer. This is uncomfortable as the recession continues in the manufacturing sector.
“In general, today’s data points to weak and continuous growth in the euro area economy in the last quarter of 2019. For the third quarter, the data available to date show only a small 0.1% increase in the economy. previous quarter, ”added Commerzbank.
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